If SpaceX goes public, how long can Tesla's "Musk premium" last?

As SpaceX advances its IPO plans, the unique "Musk premium" that Tesla stocks have enjoyed for a long time may face challenges. Previously, investors could only indirectly participate in Musk's technological vision by holding Tesla stocks, while SpaceX's listing could trigger a reallocation of market funds related to the "Musk concept."

According to Bloomberg, SpaceX is planning an internal share sale, with the company's valuation expected to reach $800 billion, making it the highest-valued private company globally, and its subsequent IPO may also set a historical scale record. Analysts point out that the listing of SpaceX may create some capital diversion pressure on Tesla stocks, as some investors holding Tesla are actually based on their recognition of Musk as an individual and his vision, rather than purely optimistic about its automotive business.

It is worth noting that Tesla's stock price has risen nearly 20% in the past month, with a cumulative increase of over 27% this year. Currently, Tesla's forward price-to-earnings ratio (based on expected earnings for the next 12 months) has risen to about 220 times, ranking second among S&P 500 constituents, only behind Warner Bros.

Investor opinions on the impact of SpaceX's listing vary. Some believe that the new listing will directly divert funds that were originally concentrated in Tesla; others point out that significant milestone events from Musk's companies often create synergistic effects, boosting market sentiment and attention towards related enterprises.

Valuation Bubble Raises Doubts

Despite the continuous rise in stock prices, Tesla's fundamental performance has raised market concerns. The company is facing dual pressures of slowing sales growth and declining profits, while a tightening regulatory environment and shrinking consumer automotive spending also pose challenges. Thomas Thornton, founder of hedge fund Telemetry, stated:

"If you have held Tesla stock for a long time, you have definitely made money, there is no doubt about that. It's just that I find it strange because Tesla's fundamentals are really terrible."

Tesla's current valuation level has sparked widespread skepticism. Vikram Rai, a portfolio manager at First New York, bluntly stated: "The existing valuation is completely lacking fundamental support." The company has completely liquidated its Tesla positions earlier this year.

From a technical indicator perspective, Tesla's stock price approached the overbought zone earlier this week. Looking back to early October, the stock fell about 10% over seven trading days after reaching this level, which serves as a warning signal for the current market trend.

Dual Impact of SpaceX's Listing

The potential listing of SpaceX is expected to have multiple impacts on Tesla's stock price. Dmitry Shlyapnikov, an analyst at Horizon Investments, stated: "SpaceX's IPO may create some selling pressure on Tesla stocks, as some investors hold Tesla primarily to gain exposure to Musk's vision, rather than based on its automotive business itself." However, Adam Sarhan, CEO of 50 Park Investments, holds a different view: "Historical experience shows that when a company under Musk reaches an important milestone, it often boosts market sentiment for its associated companies." He expects that the high-profile IPO of SpaceX is likely to attract more investors drawn to Musk's innovative narrative into its ecosystem.

Bloomberg Industry Research analyst Steve Man pointed out that Tesla's current stock price has been somewhat driven by expectations of SpaceX's IPO. The two companies have strategic synergies: Tesla's Optimus robot may assist in Mars colonization plans in the future, while SpaceX's Starlink system could enhance the connectivity of ground vehicles. This expectation of technological integration further reinforces the market's perception of the long-term interconnection between the two companies