Market Predictions Bet on "Global Market Value Leader": Next Year, Google Will Challenge NVIDIA and Apple Head-On with AI Chips
According to market predictions from Polymarket, the probability of Alphabet, Google's parent company, becoming the world's largest company by market capitalization before December 2026 is 33%, second only to NVIDIA's 37%. The company currently has a market capitalization of $3.7 trillion, ranking third globally, behind NVIDIA and Apple. Analysts believe that Google, with the strong performance of its large language model Gemini and custom AI chip TPU, is expected to challenge the market positions of NVIDIA and Apple
With the continuous advancement of artificial intelligence technology driving stock prices higher, Google's parent company Alphabet is launching a challenge for the title of the world's most valuable company, with some market participants beginning to bet that it will surpass NVIDIA and Apple in the next year.
According to the latest data from the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Alphabet becoming the world's largest company by December 2026 has reached 33%, second only to NVIDIA's 37%. Previously, Jessica Rabe, co-founder of DataTrek Research, pointed out in a report that the likelihood of the two companies becoming the world's largest was once equal at 36%.
Alphabet's stock price has rebounded significantly by over 60% in 2025, and is expected to be the best-performing stock among the "Seven Giants" this year. Last month, the company's market capitalization surpassed Microsoft, rising to third place globally, currently only behind NVIDIA and Apple.
Rabe believes that the ranking in the prediction market is "extremely favorable" for Alphabet, with this optimism primarily stemming from Google's large language model Gemini and its custom chips known as Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) showing strong momentum.
Rising Prediction Market and Market Capitalization Gap
Although Alphabet is currently the third-largest company in the world, its momentum in catching up with the leaders has attracted close attention from the market.
Current market capitalization data shows that to surpass NVIDIA, Alphabet still needs to bridge a significant gap. NVIDIA's current market capitalization is $4.2 trillion, Apple's is $4 trillion, while Alphabet stands at $3.7 trillion.
However, Polymarket's trading data reflects a change in investor confidence.
Jessica Rabe pointed out that the likelihood of Alphabet surpassing its two major competitors to take the top spot is increasing. Although the current 33% probability is slightly lower than NVIDIA's 37%, it indicates that the market believes this ranking change is not unimaginable.
Despite Alphabet's current market capitalization still lagging behind NVIDIA, analysts consider the scenario of it becoming the largest company in the market next year to be reasonable.
As early as last September, MoffettNathanson analyst Michael Nathanson had predicted this outcome.
He believes that thanks to its diversified business lines and accelerated growth in cloud services, Alphabet will not only be a winner in the generative AI era but should also be regarded as a strong contender for the title of "the most valuable company in the world."
AI Chips and the Gemini Model as Core Drivers
The key catalyst for the market's bullish outlook on Alphabet lies in its advancements in the custom chip sector.
Analysts are beginning to explore whether Alphabet will capture market share from NVIDIA, as the company has started renting out its TPU computing power to customers in addition to using it internally In addition, the release of Gemini 3 is also an important factor driving the rise in stock prices this year. The model is trained on TPU and performs better than OpenAI's ChatGPT in key benchmark tests, further validating Alphabet's technological strength in the integration of software and hardware
