Wall Street generally has a positive outlook for the U.S. stock market in 2026, which may be a hidden concern

華爾街見聞
2025.12.22 11:41
華爾街股市預測者向來以看漲著稱，但他們對 2026 年的當前預期水平卻令部分市場觀察者憂心忡忡。數據顯示，各大機構賣方策略師對標普 500 指數的年終目標值呈現近十年最集中的分佈態勢。其中奧本海默預測最高達 8100 點，Stifel Nicolaus & Co.預測最低為 7000 點，年度預期值的差距僅為 16%。如此一致的觀點通常被視為反向信號 —— 當所有人傾向同一方向時，失衡往往會自我修正。而當前市場風險已然顯現。通脹率持續高於美聯儲目標，令市場對貨幣政策寬鬆的預期面臨落空風險。失業率近月穩步攀升，而鉅額人工智能支出尚未轉化為實際收益。儘管如此，策略師們仍平均預期 2026 年美股將上漲約 11%，即便此前已連續三年實現兩位數回報。（彭博）
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