Silver is just a trading commodity. Guolian Minsheng Macro's Lin Yan exposes the truth about the "youth version of gold"! Next year, copper will follow AI, and oil prices will fluctuate within a range

Before entering the new year, the market is digesting several things at the same time: how many more interest rate cuts will occur, how far can fiscal policy go, and whether AI can continue to support risk appetite.

These questions are intertwined, making the relationships between assets less intuitive.

Why is gold still strong? Is the rise in non-ferrous metals due to macro pricing or industrial logic? Are European assets forming new expectations?

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Core viewpoints overview:

1. AI remains the most important risk asset theme in 2026, but the logic has shifted from "full diffusion" to "head concentration," with policy attitudes determining the volatility boundaries.
2. The reason AI is "fearless" is fundamentally due to fiscal and monetary support; once policies turn cautious, the uncertainty of the capital expenditure cycle will quickly amplify.
3. Gold has evolved from a de-dollarization logic to a strong foundational asset under macro narratives, and a true trend reversal requires very clear signals.
4. There is no "youth version of gold": silver is more of a trading commodity, copper is an ancillary asset to AI capital expenditure, and the logic is fundamentally different from gold.
5. The core driver of copper prices lies in AI, electricity, and infrastructure investment; as long as the capital expenditure story holds, the industrial logic of copper will not break.
6. Europe is one of the most noteworthy expectation differences in 2026; the key is not "how bad it is," but whether fiscal policy is truly implemented and whether the cycle is completed.
7. The overall trend of U.S. stocks is not over, but the structure is highly differentiated: AI may narrow its focus, high-end consumption remains relatively stable, small-cap stocks have a logic for catch-up, and real estate still needs to wait for clearer signals.
8. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are closer to a "standard asset" positioning, primarily focused on repair at the numerator level, with rhythm and elasticity more dependent on external risk appetite and the dollar environment.

Q1: Is the choice of the next Federal Reserve Chair important? Will it change next year's policy direction?

The Federal Reserve Chair is more of a "moderator" and "spokesperson"; the overall voting structure and economic data truly determine policy direction, not any one individual.

Lin Yan: First, the decision-making mechanism of the Federal Reserve determines that the Chair is not a "one-man show." There are a total of 12 voting members in the Fed, of which 7 governors and the New York Fed president are long-term fixed voters, while the remaining 4 regional Fed presidents rotate. The regional Fed presidents who will rotate next year are generally hawkish, which means even if the Chair changes, the overall style of the Fed may be slightly more hawkish than this year.

Second, the "style" of the Chair more affects market sentiment rather than final decisions.

If the Chair is dovish, it can at least alleviate market psychological pressure; if the Chair frequently releases hawkish signals, the market can easily respond with declines in advance. However, if speeches diverge from data for a long time, the market will ultimately reprice.

Third, regardless of who becomes Chair, employment data will be an unavoidable constraint. Currently, the U.S. shows a clear K-shaped state: high-income groups benefit from the stock market rise, with luxury goods and high-end consumption performing strongly; however, the pressure on those without assets is rising, and this group has limited support for employment As the pressure on low-income groups expands, there is still room for employment to weaken, which will force the Federal Reserve to respond.

Fourth, the two main candidates each have their strengths and weaknesses, but both find it difficult to completely "politicize" the Federal Reserve. Waller is familiar with the Federal Reserve system, quick to adapt, and easy to gain consensus, but has a stronger technocratic attribute, placing more emphasis on data and professional judgment, making political manipulation more challenging; Hassett is better at conveying the president's will, but lacks experience within the system, posing challenges to gaining consensus. No matter who is chosen, it does not mean that the Federal Reserve will be completely pushed towards politically motivated interest rate cuts.

Q2: Why are "dollar, AI, and fiscal policy" chosen as the three main allocation lines for 2026?

In the asset allocation main lines for 2026, AI and precious metals are a continuation of the logic, while fiscal policy is a new variable.

Lin Yan: First, AI capital expenditure remains the strongest momentum source for risk assets.

In the past two years, whether in U.S. stocks, South Korean stocks, or related industrial chains, the strongest performers have been assets related to AI. Capital expenditure primarily benefits upstream equipment, computing power, storage, and infrastructure, forming a stable source of profit, which has also been the main line with the highest risk appetite and strongest momentum in recent years.

Second, precious metals correspond to global debt and a loose monetary environment.

Against the backdrop of worsening global debt issues and major economies entering or about to enter a rate-cutting cycle, credit currency is continuously diluted, and gold becomes a "hard currency" to hedge credit risk. After a significant rise in gold, silver, platinum, and other precious metals follow suit, essentially spreading the same logic.

Third, global fiscal resonance is a new main line for 2026. Next year, multiple economies will simultaneously be in a loose fiscal state: Japan through loose fiscal legislation, China maintaining proactive fiscal policy, Europe gaining more space on deficit constraints, and the U.S. adopting a looser fiscal stance in the context of midterm elections. Such a synchronous loose fiscal situation across many economies is rare, and its impact on global demand and financing environment will become a new important variable in 2026.

Q3: Is AI really a "capital expenditure story," or has it entered the profit realization stage?

AI is a technology that could truly change productivity, but the capital expenditure cycle inevitably comes with bubbles and volatility; the key lies in whether inflation and the policy environment provide a safety net.

Lin Yan: First, technologies that truly change human life are always accompanied by a frenzy of capital expenditure in the early stages.

Historically, whether it was railroads replacing horse-drawn carriages, electrical automation replacing steam engines, or the internet replacing traditional communication, the early stages experienced a significant rise in the prices of production materials, followed by a price drop to achieve cost-effectiveness, ultimately completing the technological replacement.

Second, capital expenditure in the early stages often leads to "lower efficiency."

When the prices of production materials are inflated, input costs rise, making it difficult for new technologies to immediately demonstrate efficiency advantages. Only when the prices of production materials experience a significant decline can new entrants drive efficiency improvements at lower costs, and this process typically follows an S-shaped curve.

Third, the core uncertainty of AI lies not in technology, but in macro constraints. Currently, the progress of AI at the application level is real, but whether it can significantly enhance total factor productivity still requires time for verification. In the short term, it is more important to focus on inflation changes and the Federal Reserve's attitude Fourth, as long as fiscal and monetary policies remain "supportive," the capital expenditure cycle is unlikely to collapse quickly. With the Federal Reserve still willing to cut interest rates or expand its balance sheet, and fiscal policies still having a supportive capacity, the market remains "fearless" about AI investments. The real situation to be wary of is: if electoral pressure triggers more aggressive fiscal stimulus, underlying demand is significantly boosted, inflation resurfaces, and the Federal Reserve's stance shifts, the uncertainty of capital expenditure will become apparent.

In summary, my interim judgment is that AI is still worth participating in its fluctuations, but there is no need to exit too early; the real risk signal comes from inflation rather than the technology itself.

Q4: Why is AI "fearless"? When will it become "self-reliant"?

The reason AI is "pampered" by the market is fundamentally due to the expectation of fiscal and monetary support; once the policy stance turns cautious, the risks must be borne by individuals.

Lin Yan: First, there is a shadow of "policy financial tools" behind AI. From the perspective of the U.S. fiscal plan, whether it is "Stargate" or "Genesis," it resembles "the American version of policy financial tools." If something goes wrong, the central bank and the treasury will come to the rescue.

Second, as long as the environment remains relatively loose, there is room for the AI market to continue.

In a loose environment, the market is more likely to believe that "if problems arise, there will be support," thus allowing the main line to progress more smoothly.

Third, once monetary policy turns cautious, risk tolerance shifts from "system" back to "individual."

When policies no longer provide support, fluctuations in the capital expenditure chain will be significantly amplified, and at that point, it will be "you bear it yourself."

Q5: How will the U.S. stock market perform in 2026? Aside from AI, what is the outlook for consumption, real estate, and small-cap stocks?

The overall direction of the U.S. stock market in 2026 remains, but the structure will be more differentiated: high-end consumption is relatively stable, middle-class discretionary consumption is weaker, real estate needs clearer signals, and small-cap stocks have a logic for catch-up.

Lin Yan: First, consumption needs to be stratified; it is essentially K-shaped.

The wealthy are supported by asset prices, making high-end consumption more stable; discretionary consumption among the middle class is more vulnerable; the expansion of low-income groups may drive "low-price essential consumption" to be relatively more resilient.

Second, the core obstacle in real estate is the "interest rate gap." The existing mortgage rate is around 4%, while the new loan rate is about 6%, leaving a gap of approximately 200 basis points. It is difficult for rate cuts to directly close this 200 basis point gap because aggressive cuts could lead to inflation and policy constraints. A more realistic path is: fiscal policy is more effective than monetary policy, with monetary policy acting more like a "double-edged sword."

Third, the reason the real estate cycle cannot open up is very practical.

If borrowing new money is more expensive than existing loans, residents lack the motivation to sell old homes and buy new ones, making the replacement chain difficult to smooth out. Luxury homes may be less affected due to a high proportion of cash transactions, but mid- to low-end second-hand replacements are harder to initiate.

Fourth, in terms of style, AI may "shrink its circle," and the logic for small-cap stocks to catch up is clearer.

AI remains the main line, but market concerns about AI will increase, and funds may further concentrate on top companies with better cash flow. Meanwhile, with interest rate cuts and fiscal releases, there is room for continued catch-up in small and mid-cap stocks like the Russell 2000

Q6: How do you view precious metals? Is gold a trading commodity or a long-term core asset?

The biggest short-term negative for gold comes from rapidly rising inflation and interest rate expectations; in the medium to long term, it remains a strong core asset under macro narratives. A real trend reversal will wait for two signals to appear.

Lin Yan: First, gold may encounter "significant negatives."

If inflation rises quickly, the market will reprice interest rate expectations, and gold is likely to adjust.

Because gold has gradually transformed from the "de-dollarization reserve logic" of 2022 and 2023 into a more "faith-based" speculative asset, with more obvious leverage and speculative attributes. Once liquidity tightens, the probability of a pullback is not small.

Second, the main narrative for gold is still: de-dollarization + great power competition + loose environment.

In the short term, this combination is likely to continue.

Third, the real end of the gold bull market requires one of two signals.

1. A substantial decrease in the intensity of US-China competition, a significant easing of strategic confrontation, and a noticeable decline in the growth rate of gold reserves, including a slowdown in the pace of gold imports.

2. Technologies like AI truly boost total factor productivity, bringing down the inflation center, and the inflation issue is "tamed."

Fourth, there are many bullish views, but not necessarily many long positions.

Although many people are bullish on gold, from the perspective of global gold ETF holdings and asset management positions, it has not reached a state of "extreme bullishness," so gold may still have room to grow.

Q7: After gold, who is the "gold-like"? How do you view silver, copper, and oil?

Gold's attributes are unique. Silver is more of a trading commodity, copper is an accessory to AI capital expenditure, and oil prices resemble range correction.

Lin Yan: First, silver is the "youth version of gold," but it tests skills more.

Silver is more volatile, has industrial properties, and its supply elasticity is higher. The gold-silver ratio does have trading space for recovery, but holding silver as "leveraged gold" long-term is not stable; it does not possess the complete value storage attributes of gold.

Second, copper is not based on gold logic; copper is based on AI logic.

Copper corresponds more to electricity, infrastructure, and capital expenditure demand, following AI capital expenditure. If AI can continue to develop, copper can continue to rise; the logic is very direct.

Third, Bitcoin is more like "leveraged Nasdaq."

Bitcoin is a high-risk preference and liquidity asset, and its logarithmic trend is similar to Nasdaq, but with higher volatility, showing a clear divergence from gold's safe-haven attributes.

Fourth, oil prices are likely to operate within a range.

The market is already fully psychologically prepared for negatives, and next year is more likely to be a "upstream peak, downstream bottom" pattern, with oil prices possibly fluctuating between $58 and $68.

Q8: Is Europe the biggest expectation gap in 2026? How can ordinary investors participate?

Europe's resilience comes from "the cycle has cleared + fiscal ignition." Ordinary investors are not advised to directly engage in currency exchange; it is preferable to express through tools like European stocks QDII, sovereign bonds, and credit bonds.

Lin Yan: First, it is not recommended for ordinary people to directly participate in currency exchange The leverage of the exchange rate is high and sensitive to fluctuations. The conclusion is: cherish life and stay away from high leverage.

Second, Europe's "bottom consolidation" itself is a signal.

Germany and the Eurozone's manufacturing and economic indicators have been flat for nearly a year against the backdrop of fiscal contraction, indicating that the cycle is in a clearing phase. When at the bottom, the downward space is limited, and the upward space depends on "whether someone will rescue it, and whether there is an ignition device."

Third, the ignition device for Europe comes from German fiscal policy. If German fiscal stimulus exceeds expectations, the recovery in Germany will be transmitted outward through the European internal circulation: hiring, resources, building factories, and demand diffusion, improving the fundamentals and debt repayment capacity of surrounding countries, reducing credit premiums, which may form a positive feedback loop. The roadmap remains: the effectiveness of fiscal implementation.

Fourth, the recovery in Europe and the weakness of the dollar may resonate.

If European normalization + more aggressive MMT expectations in the U.S. overlap, it is not impossible for the dollar to return to around 90; if one is missing, the dollar may fluctuate around 95, and the process will be more tortuous.

Fifth, the participation path is more "tool-oriented."

More suitable expressions include: European stocks QDII, European sovereign bonds, credit bonds.

At the industry level, directions related to fiscal and infrastructure chains have more imaginative space, such as telecommunications, military industry, new energy, and infrastructure.

Q9: How do you view A-shares and Hong Kong stocks? Are they more like "standard configuration" or "offensive"?

A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are more like "continuing to recover" next year, with stability as the main focus on the micro level, and elasticity not being large, leaning more towards standard configuration.

Lin Yan: First, stability is the main focus on the micro level, and overall it is a recovery market.

Next year is more like a year of continued recovery, but it is unrealistic to expect particularly large elasticity.

Second, cyclical stocks may move first, while consumption may lag behind.

Against the backdrop of global fiscal easing, cyclical sectors such as chemicals and machinery may recover first, while consumption recovery needs to be validated later.

Third, external variables are more critical to risk appetite.

The main impact of overseas on the domestic market is more likely to be transmitted through risk appetite, with the most intuitive external variable being the dollar index.

Fourth, the style still leans towards AI + self-controllable + some cyclical stocks.

The configuration may continue to focus on AI-related and domestically controllable sectors, while also adding directions such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and machinery. The overall judgment is: closer to standard configuration rather than significantly overweight.

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