American humanoid robot startup: Even we think the hype from the outside is excessive

Despite billions of dollars pouring into the humanoid robot sector, executives from startups at the center of the storm have rarely spoken out collectively, attempting to temper the overheated expectations of the market.

According to a report by The Wall Street Journal on December 25, several founders and executives of humanoid robot startups expressed concerns about the current state of the industry at the Humanoids Summit held in Mountain View, California.

They pointed out that despite recent technological advancements, the hype surrounding humanoid robots has become detached from reality, and transitioning from scientific experiments to the commercialization of robots that can replace human workers still faces enormous technical challenges.

Pras Velagapudi, Chief Technology Officer of Agility Robotics, stated that creating a robot is one thing, but creating a robot capable of performing "useful work" is entirely another.

Although the company's Digit robot has been tested for handling tasks in warehouses for clients like Amazon, he emphasized that the current reliability of robots is insufficient for executing complex tasks, and manufacturing a "robot butler" is far beyond the existing capabilities of the industry.

This calm internal perspective contrasts sharply with the enthusiasm of the capital markets. McKinsey partner Ani Kelkar pointed out that approximately $5 billion in investments have flowed into the humanoid robot field this year.

However, Kaan Dogrusoz, CEO of startup Weave Robotics, bluntly stated that while there is a large influx of top talent, these robots "are not yet well-defined products."

He likened the current stage to Apple's launch of the Newton handheld computer in the 1990s—an idea that was correct but technologically immature, ultimately leading to commercial failure. He believes that "bipedal humanoid robots are the Newton of our time."

Deployment Costs and Safety Concerns

For investors, in addition to technological maturity, cost-effectiveness is a more realistic consideration. Kelkar from McKinsey pointed out that installation costs are the primary reason companies avoid deploying robots. Surveys show that for every $100 spent on deploying robots, only about $20 is used to purchase the robots themselves, while the remaining $80 must be spent on equipment and systems to protect humans from harm.

Although, theoretically, lightweight humanoid robots (such as Tesla's Optimus or Unitree's G1) require fewer protective measures than heavy industrial robotic arms, Kelkar believes there is a significant gap between watching robots fold clothes in demonstration videos and expecting them to become all-purpose butlers.

The Game of Form and Efficiency

The market generally considers humanoid form to be the ultimate shape for robots, but the engineering community is skeptical. Max Goncharov, Chief Technology Officer of RemBrain, pointed out that the industry may be overly fixated on the "humanoid" form. In factory environments, the core demand is efficiency, which means that more specialized robots may have advantages.

Some engineers believe that mimicking human form has flaws such as instability of center of gravity and difficulty in replicating tactile feedback from mechanical hands. The future direction may not be to replicate humans but to surpass human form, such as using four arms or suction cup grippers Goncharov predicts that humanoid robots may only take on a very small portion of tasks in factories in the future.

Although Elon Musk predicts that Tesla's Optimus robots will reach an annual production of one million units, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang also believes that technological breakthroughs are "just around the corner," but startups on the front lines are clearly more cautious. Persona AI CEO Nicolaus Radford called at the summit for the industry to be accountable for the adoption timeline and to avoid overcommitting