Goldman Sachs' research team's top ten investment themes for 2026 in one article

Goldman Sachs' industry research team released its annual investment theme outlook at the beginning of 2026, focusing on ten key areas ranging from the evolution of AI infrastructure to geopolitical uncertainties. These themes reflect the profound transformation that global markets are undergoing, covering multiple dimensions such as technological innovation, pharmaceutical breakthroughs, reshaping trade patterns, and adjustments in energy structures.

Goldman Sachs stated in the report that investment in AI infrastructure is entering a new phase, with the stock prices of traditional leaders like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Amazon stagnating since last summer, while new entrants like Broadcom are beginning to emerge. In the pharmaceutical sector, the weight loss drug market is showing differentiation, with Eli Lilly continuing to outperform the market, but Novo Nordisk's stock price has halved since 2025, shifting market focus to new drug approvals and the revival of cardiovascular treatments expected next year.

Goldman Sachs economists predict that China's economic growth will exceed market consensus, with technological advancements and export leadership becoming the main driving forces. At the same time, policy uncertainties such as the direction of Federal Reserve policies, the Supreme Court's ruling on Trump administration tariff policies, and the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair will dominate market sentiment in the first half of 2026.

Notably, Goldman Sachs pointed out that current U.S. stock valuations have reached their highest level since the late 1990s, and investors need to remain cautious while seizing opportunities.

Deepening AI Infrastructure and Power Shortage Trading

The AI investment theme is undergoing a significant transformation. The stock prices of previously stable leading companies like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Amazon have stagnated since last summer, while new companies like Broadcom are making progress, and AI "winners" like Google are beginning to emerge. Investors are turning their attention to the data center interior, looking for companies that can support global computing power construction regardless of the chips used.

Memory manufacturers like Micron Technology have seen their stock prices soar, and connector companies like Amphenol and TE Connectivity are also performing strongly.

The "power sector" within AI infrastructure construction is also transforming, with utility stocks experiencing stagnation, but gas turbine supplier GE Vernova continues to rise, and companies like Quanta Services and EME that can install these devices continue to benefit from market and on-site service scarcity.

Ryan Hammond noted in a report on November 18 that the next phase of trading will encompass companies that improve efficiency through the adoption of AI tools.

Shift in Pharmaceutical R&D Focus

The transformation of the GLP-1 weight loss drug market is even more pronounced. Eli Lilly's stock price continues to outperform the market, but Novo Nordisk has lost nearly half of its stock price since 2025, with dual pressures from price and sales leading to a 33% downward revision of market expectations for its 2026 earnings per share.

Goldman Sachs analyst Corinne Johnson pointed out that the investment focus will shift to new weight loss products seeking approval next year.

More importantly, the team of Asad Haider and Salveen Richter observed that with a large number of new drugs and therapies set to be approved, the focus of biopharmaceuticals is transitioning from obesity drugs to a "Cardiology Renaissance," which will open up a potential large product cycle

The Boundaries of Retail Are Becoming Increasingly Blurred

The lines between offline sales, online commerce, and advertising are disappearing. Analysts Eric Sheridan and Kate McShane both emphasized this trend in their respective outlook reports.

Sheridan has long focused on this phenomenon of blurred boundaries and continues to see opportunities for e-commerce platforms to generate profitable revenue through advertising and marketing agreements.

McShane also observed that retailers are venturing into alternative revenue sources such as media, membership, and e-commerce, emphasizing that delivery speed, value propositions, and the introduction of agency business solutions will reshape the industry landscape next year.

China's Economic Growth Exceeds Expectations

Goldman Sachs economists predict that China's economic growth will exceed market consensus, with technological advancements and a sustained export lead becoming the driving forces, maintaining an advantage even in a tariff environment.

Economists Andrew Tilton, Hui Shan, and their team raised GDP growth expectations in a report on October 31. The bank believes that the impact of China's economic recovery on global trade and technology patterns will be a key focus of observation next year.

Productivity Drives Profit Growth

Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Hatzius and his team pointed out that as technology-driven productivity improvements support economic growth, there may be a risk of "jobless expansion" next year.

However, analyst Joseph Briggs noted that this productivity improvement is necessary in the face of a shrinking workforce due to immigration restrictions. In the long run, productivity gains will be key to offsetting labor aging and declining birth rates.

The Rise of Alternative Investments

In investment channels, the private credit market is expected to outperform private equity by 2025 and continues to attract retail funds.

The cryptocurrency market is also expanding, with James Yaro noting that companies like Coinbase and Robinhood are well-positioned in the ever-expanding markets of cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and prediction markets.

Militarization Evolution

The defense sector is experiencing "evolving militarization." Goldman Sachs noted in its report:

In the United States, the Space Force is leaning towards innovators like AVAV and RKLB that have drone and satellite technology cultures.

In Europe, to catch up with Russia's military capabilities, investments of up to $160 billion may be needed over the next five years for re-militarization.

Humanoid Robots and Autonomous Driving

With technological advancements, the ability to create hardware that can simulate common activities is continuously improving. Mark Delaney believes that the development of humanoid robots and autonomous driving will drive profit growth for industrial technology companies, including Tesla.

Jacqueline Du pointed out after research that China's humanoid robot supply chain is actively reserving capacity, waiting for actual orders to materialize.

Additionally, China is also in a leading position in the field of autonomous vehicles. Allen Chang expects that by 2035, the market size of China's Robotaxi (autonomous taxi) will reach $47 billion.

Nuclear Renaissance and the Rise of Rare Earths

Goldman Sachs states that a series of nuclear power plant accidents, such as those at Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima, had sidelined the development of nuclear energy for decades. However, demand can spur a renaissance, the need for more electricity (preferably "clean" electricity) to fuel the AI revolution has brought nuclear energy back to the forefront.

Rare earth metals are also becoming a key component in the technology sector, which is currently dominated by China. The team of Brian Lee and Paul Young points out that the supply chain opportunities for rare earths as critical components in technology (such as MP) are worth paying attention to.

Increasing Policy Uncertainty

Policy has always been an important theme, but as we enter 2026, the impact of policy on the market may exceed that of previous years.

In terms of monetary policy, the bank's economist David Mericle notes that the debate regarding the Federal Reserve's next steps, who will lead the Federal Reserve, and the broader implications for U.S. monetary policy may dominate the market at least in the first half of the year.

Goldman Sachs traders are watching a series of potential catalysts that could influence market direction, including: the anticipated ruling by the Supreme Court on the legality of the Trump administration's tariff policy, the Federal Reserve meetings in January and March, the appointment of the new Federal Reserve Chair, the midterm elections in November, as well as the World Cup and the Winter Olympics.

One thing investors need to keep in mind is that current stock valuations have reached their highest level since the late 1990s