UBS raised Hong Kong's GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 3.1%, expecting a growth of 2.3% this year

UBS Investment Bank's Senior Asia and China Economist, Deng Weishen, stated that the bank now expects Hong Kong's GDP growth to reach 3.1% in 2025, compared to the previous forecast of 2.2%. The bank anticipates that Hong Kong's GDP will grow by 2.3% this year (2026), which is also higher than the market expectation of 2%.

Recent data reflects encouraging signs of recovery in Hong Kong across various aspects, such as a rebound in consumer sentiment, growth in trade, and active financial transactions. Hong Kong should continue to benefit from high-value-added trade. However, due to external growth slowing down, economic growth may decelerate in the coming quarters. Despite the ongoing economic recovery and numerous signs of improvement, the bank still believes that the key to Hong Kong's economy lies in leveraging comparative advantages and establishing new growth engines.

Chen Zhilin, Assistant Director of the Asia-Pacific Research Department and Hong Kong Strategist at UBS Investment Bank, stated that as cyclical headwinds turn into tailwinds, including a weaker dollar and declining interest rates, Hong Kong is believed to be entering a turning point in a new growth cycle. The financial sector, which accounts for the largest share of Hong Kong's economy, has shown industry growth this year that is not merely a flash in the pan. Compared to other economies, Hong Kong's financial sector has clear advantages and at least three structural growth opportunities, including Chinese enterprises going global, attracting overseas capital under favorable conditions for corporate valuations, and the continuous growth of asset management scale