Apple's "folding" saves the market, the rise of ASIC, and the trillion-dollar optical communication feast... Understand Goldman Sachs' top ten technology industry trend predictions for 2026 in one article

Goldman Sachs' Top Ten Trends in the Technology Industry for 2026 focuses on core sectors such as AI servers, optical communication, Apple's foldable screens, semiconductors, intelligent driving, and satellite communication, revealing structural investment opportunities under technological innovation and supply chain transformation.

According to the Wind Trading Desk, Goldman Sachs' analyst team led by Allen Chang pointed out in their latest report that the shipment volume of AI servers is expected to experience explosive growth in 2026, with the penetration rate of ASIC chips projected to rise to 40%, driving a year-on-year surge of over two times in the shipment of 800G/1.6T optical modules. The accelerated penetration of ASIC chips will propel AI servers and the optical communication industry to a new trillion-dollar high.

In the consumer electronics sector, Apple's upcoming foldable iPhone is expected to become a strong catalyst in the smartphone market, drawing market attention, while the PC market continues to face severe challenges, with leading companies still demonstrating resilience.

Goldman Sachs emphasizes that AI-related technologies and high-end hardware demand will continue to drive performance growth in China's semiconductor, optical communication, and PCB industries. Meanwhile, emerging sectors such as intelligent driving, AI software, and low-orbit satellites are also accelerating their implementation under policy and technological breakthroughs, providing investors with diversified layout opportunities.

AI Servers: The Strong Rise of ASICs and Connection Upgrades

The AI server market is undergoing structural adjustments. Goldman Sachs expects the shipment volume of rack-level AI servers to surge from 19,000 units in 2025 to 50,000 units in 2026.

A key trend is the diversification of platforms and the enhancement of network connectivity. With energy efficiency advantages in specific AI workloads, the penetration rate of ASIC chips is expected to reach 40% in 2026 and further rise to 45% in 2027.

This trend will make customers increasingly reliant on leading suppliers with strong design and manufacturing capabilities, such as Hon Hai and Foxconn Industrial Internet.

Optical Communication: Explosion of 800G/1.6T Optical Modules

The optical communication sector will directly benefit from the expansion of AI infrastructure. As data center networks upgrade from 400G to 800G/1.6T, and with the increasing application of Silicon Photonics and Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technologies, the demand for optical transceivers will experience explosive growth.

Goldman Sachs emphasizes that the increase in ASIC chip penetration will further support the demand for optical modules, as ASICs rely more on network capabilities to achieve AI workloads.

Cooling Technology: Accelerated Increase in Liquid Cooling Penetration

With the increase in computing power density, cooling technology is facing an upgrade inflection point. Goldman Sachs points out that the penetration rate of liquid cooling technology will significantly rise, especially in the ASIC AI server field. To address the thermal power challenges brought by higher computing capabilities, the supply chain will accelerate its transition to liquid cooling solutions, benefiting cooling component suppliers like AVC and Auras.

ODM Manufacturers: U.S. Production Capacity Layout as a Key Factor

In the ODM (Original Design Manufacturer) sector, geopolitical factors and supply chain resilience have become key considerations. Goldman Sachs believes that manufacturers with a strong commitment or production capacity plans in the U.S. will outperform the market. ODM manufacturers with strong R&D capabilities, vertical integration advantages, and comprehensive chip platform exposure, such as Hon Hai, Wistron, and Wiwynn, will be more favored by the market

PC: Market Challenges are Severe, Leaders Show Resilience

The PC market faces multiple headwinds in 2026. Goldman Sachs analyzes that the Windows 10 replacement cycle is nearing its end, the growth expectations for AI PCs have been digested by the market, and rising storage costs may lead to lower product specifications or higher prices. Against this backdrop, only global market leaders (such as Lenovo) are expected to maintain resilience in a challenging market due to stronger supply chain bargaining power and exposure to high-end products.

Smartphones: Is Apple's Foldable Screen the Only Star?

The report points out that Apple will launch a foldable iPhone in 2026, with expected shipments reaching 11 million to 35 million units, becoming a strong catalyst in the smartphone market. The penetration rate of high-end foldable models continues to rise, driving performance growth for related component companies.

Goldman Sachs notes that the change in iPhone form factor will be a core driving force, especially the launch of the foldable iPhone will attract consumers and support terminal demand. Although rising storage costs pose potential risks, high-end brands and new features like foldable screens will reduce consumers' price sensitivity.

PCB: High-End Capacity is Scarce, Volume and Price Rise Together

Despite market disagreements on long-term supply and demand dynamics, Goldman Sachs believes that PCB (Printed Circuit Board) demand remains solid.

In particular, high-end CCL (Copper Clad Laminate) and PCB suppliers will benefit from the growth in AI server shipments and the increase in ASIC penetration rates, facing a favorable supply-demand landscape. As CCL grades upgrade to M8+ and M9, the average selling price (ASP) of high-end products is expected to grow by 20-30% annually in 2026 and 2027.

China Semiconductor: AI Drives a New Round of Expansion

The Chinese semiconductor industry will continue to maintain a growth trend. Goldman Sachs is optimistic about the expansion plans of leading domestic companies (such as SMIC and Hon Hai) in advanced processes, as well as the rise of domestic GPU suppliers.

AI technology innovation and new demands for edge devices (such as AI glasses) will be major drivers. Additionally, the semiconductor equipment and materials sectors will also benefit from the trend of supply chain localization.

L4 Chips and Robotaxi: Continuous Upgrades in Autonomous Driving

The trend of intelligent driving will continue to deepen in 2026. Goldman Sachs expects that the popularization of urban NOA (Navigation Assisted Driving) and Robotaxi (autonomous taxis) will drive growth for chipsets, software, and sensor suppliers. Solutions from companies like Horizon Robotics are being adopted by more vehicle models, while the commercialization process of Robotaxi operators like Pony AI is also accelerating, bringing new growth poles to the related supply chain.

Low Earth Orbit Satellites: Accelerated Launches and Specification Upgrades

The low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite industry will enter an acceleration phase. Goldman Sachs points out that with the improvement of rocket carrying capacity and the reduction of launch costs, satellite launches will significantly speed up.

At the same time, satellite specifications are also upgrading, with bandwidth evolving from single-band to multi-band (Ka, E, V, W). Considering the 5-6 year lifecycle of satellites, replacement demand may start as early as 2026, which will drive the construction of constellation network infrastructure