JP Morgan slightly adjusted JD.com's revenue growth for this year to 4% year-on-year, benefiting from growth momentum in non-electronic products and others

JP Morgan published a research report indicating that JD-SW (09618.HK) is expected to have a year-on-year revenue growth of 2% in the fourth quarter of last year, slightly better than the bank's previous forecast of 1% at the end of last year. This is due to the latest view on Alibaba (09988.HK)'s core e-commerce revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025, which suggests that the pressure on JD's comprehensive goods and platform marketing revenue is lower than expected; during this period, it is predicted that this part of the revenue will grow by more than 10% year-on-year, and JD's adjusted net profit will still be around RMB 1 billion (the same below).

Morgan Stanley slightly adjusted JD's revenue forecast for this year to a year-on-year growth of 4%, mainly benefiting from the growth momentum of its non-electronic products/appliances revenue; however, it also lowered the adjusted earnings per share by 9% to reflect Alibaba's commitment to instant retail market share and JD's plan to accelerate the development of its international business (mainly Joybuy in Europe).

After the update, Morgan Stanley expects JD's adjusted earnings per share growth rate for 2026 to be about 20% per year, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2% in JD's retail operating profit; it is expected that losses from new businesses will narrow from last year's RMB 46 billion to RMB 39 billion this year, as the bank believes that the narrowing losses from the takeaway/instant retail business will be partially offset by increased losses from international investments. The bank has not given JD an investment rating or target price