"Trump version QE" is effective! The key mortgage rate in the U.S. is approaching the 6% mark, hitting a new low in over three years

As the key spring home-buying season approaches, key mortgage rates in the United States have reached their lowest level in over three years.

Data released by Freddie Mac on Thursday shows that the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage is 6.06%, down from 6.16% last week, marking the lowest level since September 2022. Since September 2022, U.S. mortgage rates have not fallen below the 6% threshold. Through adjustable-rate loans, current borrowers in the U.S. can secure rates below 6%, which is a significant psychological milestone.

Lowering loan costs is one of the key goals in President Trump's plan to enhance housing affordability. Following his announcement last week of a $200 billion mortgage bond purchase plan, mortgage rates have subsequently declined. The long-standing high loan rates have forced many potential buyers and sellers to sit on the sidelines over the past few years.

Data from Redfin, dating back to 2012, indicates that the number of signed contracts dropped to a seasonally adjusted historical low in December of last year, excluding the lockdown period in April 2020.

However, analysts point out that the real question is whether the decline in mortgage rates is sufficient to attract hesitant buyers back to the market.

In some respects, the conditions for home buying have improved: inventory has slightly increased, the rate of home price growth has slowed, and rates have fallen from around 7% at the beginning of 2025. However, many housing experts believe that to truly "unfreeze" the market, mortgage rates need to drop significantly. The reason is that homeowners with low-rate loans are unwilling to sell and then purchase new homes at higher rates.

According to data from Ice Mortgage Technology, about 70% of borrowers have locked in rates below 5%. More than half of borrowers have rates below 4%. This means that rates must fall to even lower levels before many homeowners will consider moving.

After considering income growth, data from Compass Inc. shows that the affordability of housing in the U.S. has actually returned to its best level since 2020. However, in the current period of economic uncertainty, buyers tend to be more hesitant. This is a trade-off between lower rates and job insecurity. It remains to be seen which side will prevail by spring 2026. The optimistic view is that market conditions will be significantly better than the same time last year by early spring.

Additionally, the market turmoil caused by the power struggle between Trump and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell may not necessarily lead to lower rates. The risk is that if investors begin to question the independence of the Federal Reserve, it could push up U.S. Treasury yields, which are a key anchor for mortgage rates.

Thomas Ryan, a North American economist at Capital Economics, stated that economic conditions, particularly inflation and employment, will be key factors in determining the real estate trend. Relying solely on Trump's bond purchase plan may not provide much help to consumers. "In our view, the $200 billion purchase scale is just a drop in the bucket in the vast mortgage-backed securities market, and it is not enough." The agency expects mortgage rates to stabilize at 6.5% by the end of this year, down from a previous forecast of 6.75% However, it should be noted that there are significant regional differences in the real estate market. In the Northeast and Midwest, where housing prices are rising rapidly and inventory is tight, lower interest rates may actually drive up housing prices due to increased competition. In contrast, in regions where the market is relatively weak and housing supply is abundant, especially in the Sun Belt, homebuyers will benefit more