BTC Valuation Report for Q1 2026: Target Price $185,500

Authors: Daniel Kim, Ryan Yoon Source: Tiger Research Translation: Shan Ouba, Jinse Finance

This report, written by Tiger Research, presents our outlook for Bitcoin in the first quarter of 2026, with a target price of $185,500.

Key Takeaways

1. A solid macro environment, with a slowdown in the upward momentum: The Fed's interest rate cuts and M2 money supply growth are progressing steadily, but $4.57 billion in ETF outflows have impacted short-term trends. The CLARITY Act is expected to attract large banks.

Macroeconomic easing continues, market rally weakens

Bitcoin is currently trading around $96,000, down 12% from the previous report published on October 23, 2025. Nevertheless, the macroeconomic environment surrounding Bitcoin remains robust.

The Federal Reserve continues its accommodative policy stance. Between September and December 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, each time by 25 basis points, maintaining the current benchmark interest rate in the range of 3.50% to 3.75%. The dot plot released in December shows that interest rates are expected to fall to 3.4% by the end of 2026. The likelihood of a significant rate cut of 50 basis points or more this year is low. However, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term will end this May, and the Trump administration may appoint a more dovish successor, which will ensure the continuation of the loose monetary policy trend. Despite the shift towards a looser macroeconomic environment, institutional investors' willingness to enter the market has cooled. The spot Bitcoin ETF recorded $4.57 billion in outflows in November and December 2025, marking the largest single-month outflow since the product's inception. Net capital inflows for the year totaled $21.4 billion, a 39% decrease from $35.2 billion last year. Asset rebalancing in January boosted inflows, but the sustainability of this rebound remains to be seen. Meanwhile, companies such as MicroStrategy (holding 673,783 Bitcoins, representing 3.2% of the circulating supply), Metaplanet, and Mara continued to increase their Bitcoin holdings. The CLARITY Act as a Policy Catalyst: Against the backdrop of stagnant institutional demand, the advancement of regulatory policies has become a potential market driver. The CLARITY Act, passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, clarifies the division of jurisdiction between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), while allowing banks to provide digital asset custody and staking services. The act also grants the CFTC regulatory authority over the digital commodity spot market, providing a clear legal framework for the compliant operation of exchanges and brokers. The U.S. Senate Banking Committee is scheduled to review the bill on January 15. If the bill passes, it is expected to attract previously hesitant traditional financial institutions to enter the market. Ample Market Liquidity, Bitcoin Lagging Performance Besides regulatory progress, liquidity is another key variable affecting the market. Global M2 money supply reached a record high in the fourth quarter of 2024 and is still on an upward trend. Historically, Bitcoin price movements typically lead liquidity cycles, often initiating an upward trend before M2 reaches its peak, while consolidation is the main phase during liquidity peaks. Current indicators suggest that market liquidity is likely to expand further, indicating that Bitcoin still has upward potential. As Bitcoin reflects expectations of looser liquidity in advance, it may attract capital inflows. Furthermore, if stock market valuations are too high, some capital may shift to the Bitcoin market. The macroeconomic adjustment coefficient has been lowered to 25%, while the long-term outlook remains robust. The overall macroeconomic trend remains fundamentally unchanged compared to the previous quarter, with the general direction of interest rate cuts and liquidity expansion still clear. However, considering factors such as slowing institutional fund inflows, potential changes in the leadership of the Federal Reserve, and escalating geopolitical risks, we have lowered the macroeconomic adjustment coefficient from 35% to 25%. Despite the reduction, a positive adjustment of 25% still sends a positive signal. We believe that the advancement of regulatory policies and the continued expansion of M2 money supply will support the medium- to long-term upward trend of Bitcoin, and this core view remains unchanged. Support level: $84,000; Resistance level: $98,000. Beyond the macroeconomic factors, on-chain indicators are also releasing corresponding signals. During the market correction in November 2025, bargain hunting concentrated around the $84,000 price level, forming a clear support zone. Bitcoin's price has since rebounded above this zone. The $98,000 price level corresponds to the average holding cost of short-term holders, constituting a short-term psychological resistance level. On-chain indicators show that market sentiment is transitioning from short-term panic to a neutral range. Key market indicators such as the MVRV-Z metric (1.25), Unrealized Net Profit Margin (NUPL, 0.39), and Realized Profit/Loss Margin (aSOPR, 1.00) have all moved out of the undervalued range and into the equilibrium valuation range. While the probability of a significant rebound driven by panic selling is low given the current market sentiment, the current market structure still offers profit potential. Combined with the macroeconomic environment and regulatory developments mentioned earlier, the data model shows that the logic for Bitcoin's medium- to long-term price increase remains valid. The current market structure has changed significantly compared to previous cycles. The increased proportion of institutional and long-term capital has reduced the likelihood of panic selling previously dominated by retail investors. Recent market pullbacks have been largely completed through a gradual asset rebalancing process. Although short-term market volatility will persist, on-chain indicators and fund flow trends suggest that the overall long-term upward trend of Bitcoin remains intact.

Target price lowered to $185,500, bullish outlook unchanged

Based on our TVM valuation framework, our calculations for the market in Q1 2026 yield a neutral benchmark valuation of $145,000 for Bitcoin, down from $154,000 in our previous report. We revise our target price to $185,500 with a 0% fundamental adjustment and a 25% macro adjustment.

We have increased the fundamental adjustment from -2% to 0%. While Bitcoin network activity remained largely flat compared to the previous quarter, the renewed market focus on the BTCFi ecosystem partially offset the extreme signals from both bulls and bears.

Conversely, we have decreased the macro adjustment from 35% to 25%.

While factors such as expectations of interest rate cuts, M2 expansion, and the potential passage of the Clarity Act continue to support the market, slowing institutional inflows and rising geopolitical uncertainty necessitate a more conservative valuation approach. This target price reduction should not be interpreted as a bearish signal. Even after the adjustment, the valuation model still indicates approximately 100% upside potential for Bitcoin from its current price. The benchmark price reduction primarily reflects the impact of short-term market volatility, while Bitcoin's intrinsic value remains on an upward trend in the medium to long term. The recent price correction is a healthy market rebalancing process, and the medium- to long-term bullish trend for Bitcoin remains unchanged.