Next week's heavy schedule: China's GDP, "the Federal Reserve's favorite inflation indicator," Bank of Japan's decision, Winter Davos

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Key Financial Events for the Week of January 19 - January 25 (All in Beijing Time):

This week, the global capital markets face a dual "test" of macro data and geopolitical issues, requiring attention to the marginal changes in the following three core logical lines:

First is the dual challenge of the truth about U.S. inflation and the independence of the Federal Reserve. The U.S. core PCE price index, to be released next Thursday, is the focus of the week. After the CPI was deemed "distorted," investment banks warned of a "scissors gap" rebound in the PCE. If the data confirms sticky inflation, market expectations for interest rate cuts will face revision. Meanwhile, the U.S. Supreme Court will hear the case of Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, compounded by uncertainties surrounding tariff rulings, which will significantly disrupt the Federal Reserve's policy outlook.

Second is the resonance of the global political cycle. The Davos Forum is opening, where Trump will lead a delegation and deliver a speech. Against the backdrop of escalating situations in Venezuela and Iran, his geopolitical and trade assertions will directly impact risk aversion sentiment. In Asia, the Bank of Japan is expected to remain on hold, but Prime Minister Kishi Sanae may announce early elections, subjecting the yen exchange rate to political uncertainties.

Finally, there is China's economy and key financial reports. China will release GDP and "three driving forces" data on Monday, with a press conference from the State Council setting the tone for the year's economic operation. As the U.S. earnings season deepens, Intel and Netflix's performances will respectively test the recovery of tech hardware and the growth of streaming media.

Economic Indicators

• "The Federal Reserve's Favorite Inflation Indicator" November PCE Index

On Thursday, January 22, the "Federal Reserve's Favorite Inflation Indicator" November PCE Index will be released. After the December CPI data was deemed potentially distorted, this data has become key to assessing the true trend of U.S. inflation.

Morgan Stanley warns that it may rebound significantly to 0.46%. If the data exceeds expectations, it will directly impact market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cutsIn addition, the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that the personal income and expenditure data for October and November 2025 will be released on January 22 at 10:00 AM (Beijing time: 11:00 PM).

At the same time, the preliminary GDP for the fourth quarter and the entire year of 2025 will be released on February 20 at 8:30 AM (Beijing time: 9:30 PM). The personal income and expenditure report for December 2025 will also be released on February 20 at 8:30 AM.

• China's GDP, industrial added value, social retail, housing prices in 70 cities, and other key economic data

On Monday, January 19, China's fourth quarter GDP, industrial added value above designated size, total social retail sales, housing prices in 70 cities, fixed asset investment, unemployment rate, and other key economic data will be released. On the same day, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on the national economic operation.

Zheshang Securities expects the year-on-year GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter to be 4.6%, with industrial production showing a relatively strong performance while consumer demand recovery is moderate. CICC expects the year-on-year GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter to be 4.6%, with an annual GDP year-on-year growth rate of 5.0%.

• Bank of Japan to announce interest rate decision and economic outlook report

On Friday, January 23, the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision. The market generally expects the bank to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.75% unchanged after raising rates in December. Although the inflation data for December released before the meeting may show some easing of price pressures, the core CPI is still expected to remain high. Considering the uncertainty in domestic politics, Governor Ueda Kazuo's remarks after the meeting are expected to remain cautious.

Financial Events

• Continue to monitor geopolitical risks and U.S. developments (events throughout the week)

From Venezuela, Greenland, to the Middle East and Iran. Recently, geopolitical games have significantly intensified, and a series of unconventional and aggressive measures by the U.S. government are reshaping global risk aversion sentiment. Current geopolitical risks are becoming the biggest "X factor" affecting capital markets.

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: Announcement of Federal Reserve Chair nominee may come around Davos (events throughout the week)

On January 9, Trump confirmed that he has finalized who will lead the Federal Reserve. However, he has not officially announced it. When asked if Hassett is the nominee, Trump said, "I don't want to say," while also stating that Hassett "is certainly one of my favorites."

On the same day, U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said that Trump plans to attend the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland, from January 19 to 23, and the timing for finalizing the successor to the Federal Reserve Chair may be around that time.

• World Economic Forum - Winter Davos (January 19-23)

From January 19 to 23 (Monday to Friday), the 56th Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum will be held in Davos-Klosters, Switzerland. This year's meeting is themed "The Spirit of Dialogue" and is expected to attract over 60 heads of state and thousands of leaders from various sectors worldwide.

U.S. President Trump will lead the largest U.S. delegation in history to attend and is expected to deliver a speech on the 21st, with his economic and geopolitical agenda drawing global attention.At the same time, the forum will welcome a rare high-density appearance of technology leaders, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, Google DeepMind CEO Demis Hassabis, and core figures from OpenAI, Mistral AI, etc. will gather, and the governance, development, and global impact of artificial intelligence will undoubtedly become core topics.

• The U.S. Supreme Court has set January 20 as the next tariff opinion day, which may rule on the Trump tariff case

The U.S. Supreme Court will set Tuesday as the date for the next announcement of ruling opinions. If the ruling on the tariff case is not announced next week, it is likely to take at least another month. Justices typically enter the courtroom only when issuing opinions on cases that have been heard, and Wednesday will be the last court meeting before the next session, after which the court will recess until February 20. Trump stated on Friday that losing the case in the Supreme Court would be a disgrace for the United States.

• Japanese Prime Minister decides to dissolve the House of Representatives on January 23 and hold early elections

According to CCTV International News, on January 14, Japanese Liberal Democratic Party President and Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi held talks with LDP Secretary-General Toshihiro Suzuki and Japan Innovation Party representative Hirofumi Yoshimura, formally conveying the intention to dissolve the House of Representatives.

According to previous reports from Japanese media, Takaichi has decided to dissolve the House of Representatives on the opening day of the Diet on January 23 and hold early elections. If the House of Representatives is dissolved on January 23, there may be two election schedule options: one is to announce the election on January 27 and vote on February 8; the other is to announce the election on February 3 and vote on February 15.

• The verdict on the assassination case of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will be announced on January 21

According to CCTV News reports from last November, the trial of the assassination case of former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will be held 19 times, concluding on December 18, with the verdict to be announced on January 21 next year. On July 8, 2022, Shinzo Abe was shot while giving a campaign speech for a Liberal Democratic Party Senate candidate on the streets of Nara City and died after several hours of rescue efforts, at the age of 67. Tetsuya Yamagami was arrested at the scene.

• The U.S. Supreme Court will hold a hearing on Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook

On Wednesday, January 21, the U.S. Supreme Court will hold a hearing on Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook. This ruling will establish a key precedent on whether the president can bypass legal protections to dismiss Federal Reserve officials for "cause," and is seen as a barometer for the defense of Federal Reserve independence.

Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave stated in a report: “If the court rules unfavorably for Cook, it will significantly increase the likelihood of Powell being dismissed due to a Department of Justice investigation. We have always believed that the impact of the Cook case on the policy trajectory is more important than the selection of the next Federal Reserve chair.”

• TikTok's U.S. joint venture is expected to be established on January 22

On December 18 local time, TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew sent an internal letter updating the progress of TikTok's U.S. business. The internal letter stated that ByteDance and TikTok have signed agreements with three investors and will establish a new TikTok U.S. joint ventureThe new joint venture is named TikTok USDS Joint Venture LLC, which will be responsible for data protection, algorithm security, content review, and software assurance in the United States.

Other entities of TikTok in the U.S., fully controlled by ByteDance, will continue to be responsible for e-commerce, advertising, market operations, and other business activities, as well as the global interconnectivity of TikTok products. It is reported that matters related to the agreement will be completed no later than January 22, 2026.

• Ministry of Commerce of China: National Online New Year Goods Festival to be held from January 19 to March 4

The Ministry of Commerce of China held a press conference on the afternoon of January 15, where the spokesperson introduced that from January 19 to March 4, the Ministry will jointly guide the hosting of the 2026 National Online New Year Goods Festival with relevant units.

This year's festival will focus on four major themes: promoting traditional culture, enriching quality supply, renewing consumption scenarios, and connecting domestic and foreign markets, organizing a series of popular and distinctive activities across various regions and platforms to further stimulate consumption potential.

• Honor to co-launch the industry's first trendy toy phone with Pop Mart

Wall Street Journal learned that Honor Mobile confirmed that the digital 500 series will collaborate with Pop Mart for an IP co-branding, positioning the new phone as the industry's first trendy toy phone, which will be unveiled on January 19.

• The 3rd Beijing Commercial Aerospace Industry High-Quality Development Conference and 2026 Alibaba Cloud PolarDB Developer Conference

From January 23 to 25, the 3rd Beijing Commercial Aerospace Industry High-Quality Development Conference and the 2026 Beijing International Commercial Aerospace Exhibition will be held at the Beijing Beiren Yichuang International Convention and Exhibition Center. Additionally, the 2026 Alibaba Cloud PolarDB Developer Conference will be held on January 20.

• Long March 12 rocket expected to launch (not yet confirmed)

According to informal research news, the Long March 12 rocket is expected to launch between 15:30 and 16:30 on January 19, executing a satellite internet low-orbit constellation networking mission.

• U.S. stock market closed (Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday)

In observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, the U.S. stock market will be closed for one day. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) will also close its U.S. Treasury futures trading for one day. Trading for precious metals and U.S. crude oil futures contracts will end early at 03:30 Beijing time on January 20, and stock index futures trading will end early at 02:00 Beijing time on January 20.

• Eurozone finance ministers hold meeting in Brussels

Eurozone finance ministers held a meeting in Brussels to nominate candidates for the next Vice President of the European Central Bank, a key step in the succession process, as the current Vice President Luis de Guindos' term will end in May.

• Ahead of the end-of-month interest rate meeting, the Federal Reserve enters a quiet period

The Federal Reserve's external communication quiet period begins ahead of the interest rate meeting on January 27-28.

• U.S. President Trump calls for a credit card interest rate cap of 10% starting January 20, 2026, for one year

U.S. President Trump calls for a credit card interest rate cap of 10% starting January 20, 2026, for one year, aimed at protecting consumers from "extortion."However, the plan lacks execution details and faces legal obstacles. Notable investor Bill Ackman warned that this move is "wrong" and could lead banks to cancel credit card services, forcing consumers to turn to high-interest loans.

Financial Reports and Corporate Dynamics

• Financial Reports from Intel, Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, and other companies

Companies releasing financial reports next week: Intel, Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, 3M, Abbott Laboratories, First Capital Financial, Charles Schwab, Citizens Financial Group, CSX, Disco, DR Horton, EQT, Fastenal, Fifth Third, First Citizens BancShares, Freeport-McMoRan, General Electric, Halliburton, HDFC Bank, Huntington Bank, ICICI Bank, Interactive Brokers Group, Intuitive Surgical, Investor, JSW Steel, Northern Trust, Prologis, Samsung Biologics, SLB, TE Connectivity, Ericsson, Travelers Insurance, Truist Financial, United Airlines, and U.S. Bank.

• Walmart to be included in the Nasdaq 100 Index

Walmart will be included in the Nasdaq 100 Index, Nasdaq 100 Equal Weighted Index, and Nasdaq 100 Non-Tech Index before the market opens on January 20. Walmart will replace AstraZeneca, which will be removed on January 20.

• Longcheer Technology applies for Hong Kong IPO, expected to start trading on January 22

Longcheer Technology has applied for a Hong Kong IPO. The company seeks to issue approximately 52 million shares, with the upper end of the price guidance set at HKD 31 per share. According to Bloomberg estimates, the company aims to raise up to HKD 1.6 billion (approximately USD 205 million). The stock is expected to start trading on January 22.

• Hong Kong Stock Exchange announces the launch of six new stock option categories, covering Zijin Mining, Laopuqiao Gold, Horizon Robotics, and others

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange previously announced that it will launch six new stock option categories on January 19, 2026 (Monday), further expanding the stock options market and providing investors with more choices. The average daily trading volume in the derivatives market of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange last year was 1,662,751 contracts, a 7% year-on-year increase and a record high. Among them, stock options (including monthly and weekly expiration contracts) were one of the most actively traded products, with last year's average daily trading volume also reaching a record high of 879,831 contracts, a 22% year-on-year increase.

• Meeting for bondholders of "22 Vanke MTN005" scheduled for January 21

Bank of Communications announced that as the convener, it plans to hold the first bondholder meeting for Vanke Real Estate Co., Ltd.'s 2022 fifth phase medium-term notes (22 Vanke MTN005) in 2026 to review matters related to the extension of this bond. The bond "22 Vanke MTN005" originally had a principal repayment date of December 28, 2025, with a current outstanding amount of RMB 3.7 billion, and the interest rate for this period is 3%