Storage Frenzy! Goldman Sachs January Channel Survey: DRAM Prices Face Strong Rise Recently

Wallstreetcn
2026.01.25 11:33
portai
I'm PortAI, I can summarize articles.

Goldman Sachs report indicates that the spot price of DRAM has a huge premium relative to the contract price (up to 172% for DDR4), suggesting that contract prices will be forced to rise significantly. The continued strong demand for AI servers, the explosive revenue growth of major manufacturers, and signals that customers are accepting more aggressive price increases all indicate that the "super cycle" of memory chips is accelerating

If you are looking for exact signals in the semiconductor cycle, the sentiment indicator for the DRAM market in January 2026 recently released by Goldman Sachs' Asia-Pacific team not only flashes a red "buy" signal but also heralds the arrival of a price storm.

According to the Wind Trading Desk, on January 23, Goldman Sachs' latest channel survey shows that DRAM contract prices are facing extremely strong upward momentum recently. The core logic is simple and brutal: the spot price has already generated a huge premium relative to the contract price— the spot premium for DDR4 even reaches 172%. This enormous price difference is historically unsustainable, and the only way to converge is for contract prices to rise significantly.

Meanwhile, the demand frenzy for AI servers continues, coupled with explosive growth in DRAM exports from South Korea and revenues from related manufacturers in Taiwan, Goldman Sachs maintains a strong bullish outlook on Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. For investors, this means that earnings expectations for the memory chip sector may need to be further revised upward, especially considering that customers have already begun to accept more aggressive price increases in the first quarter of 2026.

Spot Market Surge: DDR4 Premium Rate Reaches 172%

Current market pricing is severely disconnected, indicating that contract prices must be significantly adjusted. According to Goldman Sachs' data, since the beginning of 2026, DDR5 spot prices have reopened a significant rebound mode; while DDR4 spot prices have continued to rise since September 2024.

  • DDR5: The current trading price has a 76% premium compared to the contract price in December.

  • DDR4: The premium is even more astonishing, reaching 172%. This huge "scissor difference" between spot and contract prices provides a high probability of support for the strong rise in recent contract prices. The market often leads with spot prices, followed by contracts; such a degree of premium means that downstream customers have almost no leverage at the negotiating table.

AI Server Demand: Continuous 50% Growth for 13 Months

Hardware demand has not only not slowed down but has accelerated due to the increase in rack-level AI server shipments. Data from Taiwanese server ODM manufacturers tracked by Goldman Sachs (including Inventec, Quanta, Wistron, and Compal) shows:

  • In December, monthly revenue for server ODMs soared 94% year-on-year.

  • This marks the 13th consecutive month of maintaining over 50% year-on-year high growth.

  • As a leading indicator of the server market, Aspeed Technology (the world's largest BMC supplier) achieved an 18% year-on-year growth in December 2025, on top of a high base of 131% year-on-year growth in December 2024.

Manufacturer Revenue Explosion: Nanya Technology Revenue Soars 445%

If servers represent high-end demand, then the data from second-tier manufacturers confirms a widespread price increase trend. The data from Taiwanese DRAM supplier Nanya Technology is astonishing:

  • December revenue surged 445% year-on-year.

  • This marks the manufacturer's continuous achievement of triple-digit year-on-year growth for 5 months, with the growth rate accelerating month by month (from August to December: +141%, +158%, +262%, +365%, +445%).

  • This growth is primarily driven by the strong rise in DDR4 prices.

  • Additionally, South Korea's DRAM export value also recorded a 72% year-on-year growth in December, confirming the macro trend of supply tightness pushing up prices.

Channel Feedback: Customers Forced to Accept Larger Price Increases

The real "Alpha" information comes from Goldman Sachs' frontline channel checks. In discussions with investors, market expectations for traditional storage price increases in the first quarter of 2026 have continued to rise over the past few weeks.

  • Key Signal: Specific customers in the mobile market have already begun to accept quotes for the first quarter of 2026.

  • Price Increase Exceeds Expectations: Whether for DRAM or NAND, these newly accepted price increases are significantly higher than the agreements reached in the fourth quarter of 2025. Goldman Sachs expects other customers to follow this trend and agree to significantly raise storage prices in 1Q26. Combined with the surge in spot prices, Wall Street's current expectations for recent storage prices and corporate earnings may still be too low, leaving room for further upside.

HBM and Valuation: Target Prices for Samsung and SK Hynix

Despite market disagreements on HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) pricing, shipment growth remains strong. Goldman Sachs points out that while the sell-side consensus on SK Hynix's HBM business pricing expectations has slightly declined over the past month, Goldman Sachs maintains its unique view:

  • Volume Increase: Goldman Sachs expects HBM shipment growth to exceed market consensus by 9 percentage points.

  • Price Decrease: Due to anticipated significant reductions in HBM3E 12-Hi pricing, Goldman Sachs' price expectations are 17 percentage points lower than consensus.

Investment Rating and Target Price: Based on the above fundamentals, Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating for the two South Korean giants:

  • Samsung Electronics: 12-month target price of 180,000 KRW. The valuation logic is based on SOTP (Sum of the Parts), and even facing major downside risks (deterioration in supply and demand, loss of OLED market share), its average selling price (ASP) for DRAM in 1Q26 is still expected to increase by about 50% quarter-on-quarter.

  • SK Hynix: 12-month target price of 700,000 KRW. Goldman Sachs assigns a 30% AI premium relative to Samsung, setting the target price-to-book ratio (P/B) at 2.8 times, referencing the peak of the strong upward cycle from 2009 to 2010 From the extreme levels of spot premiums to the continuous surge in ODM revenues, all signs point to the "super cycle" in the storage industry continuing to accelerate. For investors, the key now is not to question whether price increases will occur, but rather to what heights this wave of price increases will push the stock prices of related companies

Source: Wallstreetcn The copyright of this article belongs to the original author/organization.
The views expressed herein are solely those of the author and do not reflect the stance of the platform. The content is intended for investment reference purposes only and shall not be considered as investment advice. Please contact us if you have any questions or suggestions regarding the content services provided by the platform.