Wash's election probability surges, commodity markets face a Black Friday? Gold and silver once fell over 5%, and copper retraced yesterday's gains

William Dudley has once again become a popular candidate for the Federal Reserve Chair. Due to Dudley's long-standing reputation for a hawkish stance, this expectation has quickly boosted the US dollar and US Treasury yields, putting pressure on commodity prices. Futures in both domestic and international markets have generally declined, with precious metals experiencing the most significant drops.

Wall Street Journal mentioned that on the evening of January 29th, Eastern Time, US President Trump stated that he would announce the nominee for the Federal Reserve Chair on Friday morning (tonight Beijing time). According to the latest media reports, the Trump administration is preparing to nominate Dudley for the position.

According to Deutsche Bank, if Dudley is elected as the Federal Reserve Chair, his policy proposals may present a unique combination of "simultaneous interest rate cuts and balance sheet reduction." Investors are beginning to price in a future where liquidity may tighten more quickly. During the Asia-Pacific session on Friday, the US dollar index strengthened rapidly, rising 0.43% on the day.

In this round of sell-off driven by macro expectations, the commodity market has faced a significant setback, with futures in both domestic and international markets generally declining, and the precious metals sector being the hardest hit, leading the market down.

After experiencing a record-breaking short squeeze rally, spot gold prices plummeted more than 4% during the Asian session on Friday, falling below the $5,200 mark. In the domestic futures market, the main contracts for Shanghai gold and silver both fell more than 2%, while platinum and palladium futures, which had previously surged more aggressively, saw intraday declines expand to 10% and 7%, respectively.

Industrial metals also did not escape the downturn. The strength of the US dollar directly weakened the demand outlook for industrial products priced in dollars, with major varieties such as London copper, nickel, and tin on the London Metal Exchange (LME) all experiencing declines of 2% or more. In the domestic futures market, contracts related to new energy, such as lithium carbonate and polysilicon, fell more than 6%.

International oil prices are also under pressure, with both WTI and Brent crude oil falling more than 1%.