The precious metals have collapsed first, and for the market, the real risk is
The precious metals market collapsed due to the Wash shock. Rabobank pointed out that the dollar depreciation trade has not stopped, but uncertainty in U.S. policy remains unfavorable for the dollar. Goldman Sachs believes the real risk lies in rising interest rates, which could stifle market enthusiasm. The gap between interest rate cut expectations and the high levels of U.S. stocks remains significant. Nominal inflation and the push for physical assets are long-term trends, but market changes are rapid, requiring tactical adjustments
Under the impact of the Wash shock, the speculative frenzy in precious metals has collapsed first.
Rabobank believes that although the pullback is significant, we cannot say that the dollar depreciation trade or diversifying investments from the U.S. has stopped.
The foreign exchange market may respond optimistically to the prospects of Wash's nomination, but the uncertainty of U.S. policies remains unfavorable for the dollar.
However, Goldman Sachs traders summarized that the real risk lies in rising interest rates, which could stifle this feast.
Currently, the gap between interest rate cut expectations (becoming less dovish) and U.S. stocks (at historical highs) remains enormous.
Goldman's Priovolotsky pointed out that nominal inflation, "stimulating the economy," and the push for physical assets remain long-term trends that will not simply disappear.
But things are developing too quickly and too violently... tactical adjustments are inevitable.
