Quantum Computing 2026 Outlook: 2 Stocks For Long-Term Upside

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Key Takeaways

• IonQ is poised for long-term upside as quantum growth moderates in 2026 after rapid expansion in 2024-2025.
• IBM advances quantum progress with new processors, Qiskit expansion, and DARPA benchmarking targets for 2026.
• D-Wave Quantum shows early optimization traction, but annealing systems remain exposed to funding cycles.

Quantum computing remains in a nascent yet strategically critical phase, with global revenues projected to reach $2 billion this year (as per an investing.com report), driven largely by defense and aerospace applications. However, recent projections indicate that the growth momentum in 2026 is moderating compared with prior years.

McKinsey’s estimates show that quantum computing revenues expanded rapidly from $650-$750 million in 2024 to expectations of surpassing $1 billion in 2025, implying strong year-over-year growth of 30%-40%. In contrast, the implied scale-up from an estimated 2025 base to $2 billion in 2026 reflects a more moderate growth trajectory, signaling a deceleration relative to the earlier growth surge.

This moderation is particularly relevant for pure-play firms such as D-Wave Quantum (QBTS - Free Report), whose annealing-based systems show early traction in optimization use cases but remain exposed to funding cycles as adoption scales.

In 2026, the growth trajectory is facing a complex interplay of geopolitical rivalries, fiscal pressure and macroeconomic headwinds, slowing momentum relative to the unprecedented investment surges observed in 2024-2025 (the global funding rounds regularly exceeding $50 million), and robust venture activity that saw private investment jump sharply year-over-year in early 2025.

Despite the macro factors, completely avoiding quantum computing equities at this stage may risk missing exposure to a multi-billion-dollar technology inflection over the next decade. This article shortlists two stocks, IonQ (IONQ - Free Report) and International Business Machines (IBM - Free Report), with significant quantum exposure. Both stocks appear to be positioned to navigate near-term volatility while preserving long-term upside.

Sino-U.S. War & Multipolar Dynamics

The United States has expanded export controls on advanced computing and semiconductor technologies — including components relevant to high-performance computing and quantum-related hardware — to limit China’s access and slow its technological ascent, citing national security and strategic competition.

These measures, overseen by the Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS), are part of broader U.S. efforts to counter China’s advances in chips, AI, and quantum tech (Congress.Gov). This reflects an ongoing “tech war” that fragments research coordination and global supply chains, complicating cross-border collaboration and talent flows.

The multipolar geopolitical dynamics extend beyond the U.S.-China dyad, with initiatives like the United States–India iCET cooperation on critical technologies illustrating diversified alliances, while also highlighting fragmented global R&D ecosystems.

Fiscal & Monetary Policies Constrain Quantum

Recent reporting on the U.S. federal budget process shows that the White House’s FY 2026 budget preserved funding for quantum research but did not expand it materially, signaling caution on emerging-tech spending even as existing programs continue.

As per the University of South Carolina, Federal support for quantum information science in FY 2026 remained relatively flat compared with prior years, with targeted activities maintained but not dramatically expanded, reflecting broader budget constraints across agencies.

In such an environment, Honeywell (HON - Free Report) may offer insulated quantum exposure through Quantinuum, supported by government research ties and a stronger balance sheet.

Monetary conditions have also weighed on innovation investment: major central banks (Fed, ECB, and the Bank of England) have maintained higher rates amid inflation concerns and slowing global growth, delaying more accommodative environments that typically encourage risk capital for frontier tech.

Forward Trajectory

Bipartisan progress on the National Quantum Initiative Reauthorization Act in early 2026 aims to authorize multi-billion-dollar federal R&D support, potentially reducing funding uncertainty and bolstering commercialization pipelines.

Easing inflation and a potential downward shift in interest rates by year-end 2026 may improve investment conditions, though broader macroeconomic slowdown and geopolitical fragmentation continue to temper near-term growth compared to the vigorous expansion seen in 2024-2025.

2 Stocks with Significant Quantum Exposure Amid Overall Uncertainty

IonQ has steadily positioned itself as a front-runner in quantum hardware commercialization, combining trapped-ion qubit technology with strategic acquisitions and partnerships to strengthen its technology stack and market reach.

IonQ’s 2025 quarterly results exceeded guidance with strong year-over-year growth, record fidelity improvements, and expanded cash reserves, while acquisitions of Oxford Ionics and SkyWater Technology enhance its hardware and supply chain capabilities. These structural moves support robust R&D and long-term scaling toward higher qubit counts and networked quantum systems.

This Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rated stock gained 7.4% in 2025. In 2026, the company is projected to report earnings growth of 65.8% on revenue growth of 83.3%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Meanwhile, IBM leverages its broad enterprise footprint and systematic quantum roadmap to navigate macro challenges and advance quantum computing prospects. IBM’s unveiling of the Quantum Nighthawk processor and expanded Qiskit toolchain signals progress toward demonstrating quantum advantage by 2026, with plans for fault-tolerant architectures by 2029.

Its participation in DARPA’s Quantum Benchmarking Initiative and continued hardware milestones reflect a disciplined, milestone-oriented path that ties quantum progress to scalable use cases and ecosystem adoption.

This Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rated stock gained 34.7% in 2025. In 2026, the company is projected to report earnings growth of 6.6% on revenue growth of 5.5%.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

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