LEO’s 17% uptick – Traders, is this real conviction or beta chasing?

Unus Sed Leo [LEO] surged sharply on the charts as risk-on conditions returned across the crypto market. It climbed by 17.6% in just 24 hours to trade near $7.87, drawing renewed attention from spot traders.

For its part, Bitcoin’s price appreciated by 5.66% over the same period, while the total crypto market capitalization expanded by 5.33%.

Still, LEO’s upside acceleration exceeded the broader market’s response, reflecting its historically higher beta during risk-on phases. As Bitfinex’s utility token, LEO often amplifies directional sentiment shifts.

Therefore, while the rally clearly aligned with macro recovery, its relative strength hinted at incremental positioning rather than simple passive market tracking.

Buyers defend demand, but supply still waits

Its price action revealed LEO firmly defending the $6.80-demand level, where buyers stepped in aggressively during two sharp downside sweeps.Each breakdown attempt below this level met immediate bids, producing a visible double-bottom response instead of prolonged weakness.

However, upside progress stalled beneath the $9.27-resistance – A level that previously rejected multiple recovery attempts. Sellers consistently asserted control near this zone, reinforcing it as active overhead supply.

Therefore, while downside protection strengthened meaningfully, the structure still hinted at recovery within a broader range. Acceptance above $9.27 remains the key requirement for trend continuation.

Momentum conditions seemed to reinforce this recovery narrative too. The daily RSI dropped sharply during the sell-off, briefly slipping into oversold territory before stabilizing near 42.3.

Since then, the RSI has continued to hover below the neutral-50 threshold despite some recovery over the last few weeks. This behavior signals momentum repair, rather than expansion. Even so, the RSI is no longer trending lower despite ongoing price volatility – A sign that selling pressure did weaken materially.

Simply put, downside momentum may be exhausted. Even though buyers have not regained full control.

Taker dominance signals conviction beneath price

The Spot Taker CVD over the 90-day window has been firmly buyer-dominant, highlighting sustained market-buy pressure throughout the rally. In fact, aggressive bids have been absorbing available liquidity, rather than shifting into passive positioning.

This behavior matters because taker-driven demand often reflects conviction, instead of reactive chasing.

Even during pullbacks towards $6.80, the cumulative delta did not roll over meaningfully. This implied that buyers have been committing capital at market prices, reinforcing downside defense.

This structure separates LEO’s move from purely beta-driven reactions, pointing to demand building beneath the surface.

Volume heats up as participation expands

Finally, the Spot volume data further supported this view. The Spot Volume Bubble Map highlighted clear heating conditions, with expanding trade sizes accompanying the rebound towards $7.87.

Larger volume clusters emerged during upside pushes, confirming renewed trader engagement. Importantly, the volume expanded alongside the price, rather than diverging negatively.

On the contrary, activity levels were below prior euphoric peaks – A sign that participation increased without tipping into overcrowding. This implied that LEO’s volume dynamics seemed to support sustained engagement, while avoiding exhaustion signals.

This was consistent with its taker dominance, while also reinforcing the case for active positioning rather than thin liquidity distortions.

In summary, LEO’s rally started as a leveraged reaction to Bitcoin’s bounce. However, on-chain and spot dynamics suggest it has not remained purely derivative. A sustained defense of $6.80, persistent taker dominance, and expanding spot volumes all seemed to hint at active conviction, rather than passive beta chasing.

However, until the price secures acceptance above $9.27, the move is evidence of strengthening participation within recovery conditions. Not a confirmed independent trend.

Final Thoughts

• LEO’s structure hinted at deliberate participation – A sign that buyers may be positioning with intent, rather than reacting blindly.
• However, conviction remains conditional, as sellers are still defending key levels where prior distribution emerged.