India Cuts Russian Oil: Could Exxon (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) Gain from Higher U.S. Exports?
Indian refiners are avoiding new offers of Russian crude for March and April, focusing on diversifying energy sources. While no formal statement has been made about halting imports, this shift may increase demand for U.S. crude from companies like Exxon Mobil and Chevron. As Indian imports of Russian oil decline, U.S. exports could rise, tightening domestic crude stock levels. India's Russian oil imports are expected to fall below one million barrels per day by March, down from an average of 1.7 million last year.
Indian refiners are starting to avoid new offers of Russian crude for March and April delivery, according to Reuters. Indian Oil Corporation (IN:IOC), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (IN:BPCL), and Reliance Industries Limited (IN:RELI) are not taking fresh trader offers right now.
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At the same time, India has not made any formal statement about stopping Russian oil imports. A foreign ministry spokesperson said the country is focused on "diversifying our energy sourcing" to protect energy security.
Still, the shift comes as India and the U.S. move closer to a trade deal that could lower tariffs and deepen ties. President Trump said India had "committed to stop directly or indirectly" importing Russian oil, although New Delhi has not confirmed that publicly.
Meanwhile, Indian refiners are already buying more crude from the Middle East, Africa, and South America as Russian volumes fall.
What This Could Mean for U.S. Oil Stocks
From an American angle, the key question is whether this change could lift demand for American crude. If India keeps cutting Russian purchases, it may turn more often to U.S. supply over time.
That could support higher export flows from U.S. producers like Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and ConocoPhillips (COP). As exports rise, U.S. crude stock levels could tighten slowly, especially if domestic supply does not grow at the same pace. In addition, U.S. shale group EOG Resources (EOG) may also benefit if global buyers look for steady non-Russian barrels.
The report also noted that India's Russian oil imports are already down sharply. Sources expect volumes to fall below one million barrels per day by March, compared with an average of one point seven million barrels per day last year.
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