OPEC Monthly Report: In January, the oil production of OPEC member countries significantly declined, maintaining the demand forecast for this year and next year unchanged

Affected by supply disruptions in Kazakhstan, Venezuela, and Iran, OPEC+ saw a significant decline in oil production in January, but this did not change the organization's long-term expectations for the fundamentals of the global oil market. This supply reduction occurred as key oil-producing countries attempted to respond to seasonal demand weakness by freezing production, providing some support to the market.

According to the OPEC monthly report released on the 11th, the OPEC+ alliance, composed of 22 countries, saw its average daily production in January drop to 42.448 million barrels, a decrease of 439,000 barrels from the previous month. This decline exceeded market expectations, with Kazakhstan's sharp production drop accounting for more than half of the total reduction. Meanwhile, Venezuela and Iran faced export disruptions due to geopolitical and sanction factors, further exacerbating the supply tightness.

Despite the fluctuations on the supply side, OPEC maintained its forecasts for global oil supply and demand for this year and next in its latest report. This statement suggests that the organization believes the current production decline is primarily driven by short-term or force majeure factors, rather than structural changes on the demand side.

Against the backdrop of core member countries like Saudi Arabia maintaining stable production, this unexpected supply contraction may provide short-term upward momentum for oil prices. OPEC+ will hold an online meeting on March 1, during which it will review production levels for April and beyond based on the latest market data, and investors are turning their focus to this meeting for future policy signals.

Kazakhstan Leads Production Decline

According to the report data, Kazakhstan was the main factor leading to the significant decline in OPEC+ total production in January. The country's largest oil field, Tengiz, suspended operations, directly impacting its oil output.

Although the OPEC monthly report did not detail the specific technical reasons for the overall production decline, it is known that Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field is operated by a joint venture led by Chevron. Notably, this project began to gradually restore production at the end of last month, indicating that the supply gap caused by Kazakhstan may be temporary.

Geopolitical Factors Limiting Supply

In addition to technical shutdowns, geopolitical factors continue to exert pressure on oil exports from some member countries. Venezuela's oil exports have been disrupted by U.S. blockade measures, occurring during the period of former President Maduro's departure.

Furthermore, Iran's oil industry continues to face suppression from U.S. sanctions, limiting its ability to supply crude oil to the global market. The constrained production from these two countries, combined with Kazakhstan's shutdown, constitutes the core driving force behind the January OPEC+ production reduction.

Core Member Countries Maintain Stability and Future Outlook

While production declined in the aforementioned countries, Saudi Arabia and several other key oil-producing countries maintained stable production in January. Previously, OPEC and its allies initiated a three-month production freeze period aimed at offsetting the seasonal decline in oil consumption that typically occurs during this time.

The current market focus has shifted to the upcoming policy assessment. OPEC+ plans to hold an online meeting on March 1, during which member countries will review market conditions and decide on production quotas for April and beyond Given the current supply fluctuations and unchanged demand forecasts, the upcoming meeting will have significant guiding implications for short-term oil price trends