Spring Festival trading big red envelope, in addition to AI, there are also consumption, RMB

As the Spring Festival of 2026 approaches, the Chinese consumer market is releasing some positive signals. From the recent wave of flagship model releases in the domestic internet and AI industries to the renminbi breaking the 6.9 mark on the 12th, the market is observing Chinese consumer sentiment and corporate pricing power during this important window period.

According to news from the Chasing Wind Trading Desk, based on JP Morgan's strategic framework around the Spring Festival and Bank of America's latest consumer survey, the market is simultaneously trading on three clues: the structural recovery of consumption, changes in risk appetite brought about by a stronger renminbi, and the redistribution of profits due to rising upstream costs. These three clues are not contradictory but will make the stock selection logic for 2026 more "refined."

It is worth mentioning that this report also reveals the AI usage among Chinese consumers: 39% of respondents use AI tools multiple times a week, and 24% use them daily, mainly for shopping recommendations and itinerary planning. More than one-third of users reported saving 3-5 hours per week, while another 32% saved 6-10 hours.

Consumption: "Upgrading More Rationally"

JP Morgan defines one of the main lines of the Spring Festival trading as "the upward option of consumption," with the core judgment being: after peaking in the first half of 2021, household balance sheets have continued to recover, and the household leverage ratio has fallen to slightly below 60% (GDP caliber), "the ability to consume" remains, but the consumption mindset is more pragmatic—willing to pay for "quality" and "certain experiences," but more cautious about impulsive consumption that is non-essential.

This aligns with the findings of the Bank of America survey: in February, 45% of respondents reported increased outings and spending in the past two months (up from 38% in December), while 49% expect to increase spending in the next six months (up from 30% in December). However, Bank of America also emphasizes that this improvement largely stems from seasonal factors related to the upcoming Spring Festival and the service consumption and travel boost brought by this year's 9-day long holiday.

More notably, the "stratification" of consumption continues. Bank of America mentions that the increase in willingness to spend during the Spring Festival mainly comes from high-income groups: among those with an annual income of over 500,000, 76% expect their spending during the Spring Festival to increase, while only 44% of low-income groups do. This means that for companies, a dual focus on high-end and cost-effectiveness will become a more realistic market structure: companies that can capture "high-end upgrades" will improve income quality more quickly.

JP Morgan lists typical products and scenarios where consumers are "willing to spend" during the Spring Festival: high-end smartphones, liquor, quality food and beverages, gold and jewelry, and travel. For example, the wholesale price of Moutai has rebounded before the festival (JP Morgan cites data showing that the wholesale price of 53-degree Feitian Moutai rose from about 1,495 yuan/bottle in mid-December to about 1,710 yuan/bottle at the end of January), which corresponds to a concentrated release of demand for gifts and banquets, as well as adjustments in supply rhythm

Travel and Service Industry: Short Cycle with Strong Certainty, but Beware of High Base

If the recovery in commodity consumption is more "structured," then the most certain aspect of service consumption remains travel. A Bank of America survey shows that the willingness to travel during the Spring Festival is rising across the board: the proportion of domestic short-distance travel plans has increased to 36% (up from 25% last year), and plans to travel to Hong Kong and Macau have risen to 21%. JP Morgan also cited institutional forecasts stating that non-commuting travel during the Spring Festival may reach 1.068 billion trips (up 11.7% year-on-year).

However, service consumption is not "one-sided." JP Morgan has given a more cautious assessment of the box office during the Spring Festival: under the high base in 2025 and the lack of phenomenon-level blockbusters, the box office for the Spring Festival in 2026 may see a slight year-on-year decline. This serves as a reminder to the market: the "long holiday dividend" is more direct for travel, but for alternative consumption such as online entertainment, the marginal elasticity may not be equally strong.

Renminbi: Risk Appetite "Favorable," but Profit Impact Highly Differentiated

A key observation from JP Morgan is that a stronger Renminbi often corresponds to a decline in the risk premium of Chinese assets, historically creating a "tailwind" for Chinese stocks, particularly benefiting growth and cyclical sectors. Their statistics show that in several phases since the end of 2016, when the Renminbi appreciated significantly against the US dollar, the average increase of MSCI China has been considerable.

More importantly, JP Morgan has set the Renminbi path for 2026 as "moderate appreciation." Under this assumption, the market will experience two layers of impact:

• Valuation Level: More stable exchange rate expectations help restore the willingness of foreign capital to allocate to Renminbi assets, usually first reflected in the relative returns of high-beta sectors.
• Profit Level: Differences among industries and companies will be quickly magnified. A typical beneficiary identified by JP Morgan is aviation—due to the high elasticity of profits from US dollar liabilities and jet fuel costs; conversely, more pressure is faced by manufacturing chains with high export ratios, thin margins, and price sensitivity.

This is also why JP Morgan emphasizes that "stock selection becomes more nuanced": facing the same Renminbi appreciation and rising costs, some companies can pass on costs (such as parts of the Apple supply chain, automation, power batteries, etc.), while others are more easily squeezed (with pressure concentrated in automotive, consumer electronics, home appliances, etc.).

Cost Upward: A Reassessment of "Pricing Power" is Happening

Entering 2026, a variable different from 2025 is that the upward trend in prices of metals, chips, materials, etc., is becoming more "systematic." JP Morgan has listed the price increases of copper, aluminum, lithium salts, DRAM, etc., pointing directly to the cost pressure on the manufacturing side. For the market, this will trigger a repricing of corporate profit quality: who has pricing power, who has product upgrades, who has overseas layout and hedging capabilities, is more likely to maintain profit margins.

It is noteworthy that there is a "rational upgrade" on the consumer side and a "cost re-inflation" on the supply side: on one hand, consumers care more about quality and experience, willing to pay for certainty; on the other hand, upstream costs make the "low-price competition" business model harder to sustain. The combination of the two may lead to a relatively positive outcome: if "quality" consumption spreads to high-frequency categories (food, condiments, dairy products, etc.), JP Morgan believes this has potential support for CPI, nominal growth, and corporate EPS—this has been an easily underestimated variable in the low inflation environment of the past few years.

Comprehensive Judgment: After the Spring Festival, the market needs to answer three questions

Combining the views of two institutions, the Spring Festival provides more of a "window period for sentiment and data," rather than the end of the macro narrative. What the market really needs to verify after the festival may be three things:

1. Can the consumption recovery extend from "holiday-driven" to "normalized upgrade" (high-frequency data looking at the slope of dining, hotels, and travel; on the corporate side looking at price increases and new product releases)?
2. Will a stronger RMB bring a more sustained improvement in risk appetite, and the sustainability of foreign capital inflow?
3. Under cost upward pressure, will the differentiation of corporate profits exceed expectations—especially in industries like automotive, consumer electronics, and home appliances that are "both competitive and reliant on materials," where the market may quickly lower profit expectations.

From an investment perspective, JP Morgan tends to position "consumption + services" upward options around the Spring Festival and emphasizes making more refined choices around pricing power; Bank of America’s survey suggests a more realistic backdrop: consumption is improving, but still shows significant stratification and cautious asset allocation habits. This determines that the narrative for Chinese assets in 2026 is likely to be "moderate recovery + structural differentiation," rather than a comprehensive market driven by a single variable.

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