分析師表示，AMD 股票 ‘這還不夠好’

Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD) is gearing up to launch its upcoming Instinct MI455 accelerator, a product that many industry watchers believe could challenge Nvidia's dominance in the lucrative AI chip market.

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But not everyone is buying the hype. D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria, for one, believes the MI455 won't dramatically shift the balance of power, arguing that AMD remains more of a supporting character in the AI blockbuster, still rehearsing its lines while Nvidia is already deep into the sequel.

Luria thinks AMD's Instinct GPUs look "great on paper," but says that in practice, customers aren't buying specs – they're buying performance at scale. AMD can highlight the MI300X, MI350X, and MI400X and claim their single-node specifications compare reasonably to competitors. But Luria points out that handling frontier workloads across tens of thousands of GPUs is fundamentally a challenge of interconnects and systems integration, areas where Nvidia has the advantage and AMD "doesn't have a serious answer." This means the cost of achieving meaningful results is higher than advertised.

A key indicator, Luria says, is OpenAI – one of the most compute-intensive labs without a locked-in relationship with a hyperscaler's proprietary silicon. "And yet," Luria adds, "we'd ascertain that OpenAI likely ranks AMD behind not only NVIDIA, but its own Broadcom ASIC program, and potentially even Trainium and TPU if they had access."

Additionally, although ROCm, AMD's software platform for running AI and GPU workloads, is improving, the company still faces a structural ecosystem disadvantage. Nvidia's CUDA benefits from nearly two decades of libraries, tools, and engineer familiarity, making it the default choice for custom AI development. As ROCm advances, CUDA's expanding ecosystem further entrenches its leadership and makes it increasingly difficult for AMD to close the gap.

As such, Luria thinks AMD's hardware and software weaknesses are creating a "negative flywheel" that needs to be addressed quickly. TSMC prioritizes advanced manufacturing and packaging capacity for customers with strong demand, and the analyst notes that AMD's Instinct volumes lag behind Nvidia, Apple, and growing hyperscaler ASIC programs. This creates supply risks for buyers – companies like OpenAI that need capacity immediately can't rely on a vendor with uncertain timelines. It also limits ROCm's access to "large-scale development feedback," slowing software progress. "Thus," adds Luria, "each turn of this loop makes the next turn harder, and the available escape valves are limited."

So, while Lisa Su's revival of AMD's CPU business and the Xilinx acquisition were masterful, Luria thinks the company's data center GPU strategy is probably not good enough.

Against this backdrop, Luria initiated coverage of AMD with a Neutral rating and $220 price target, suggesting the shares will appreciate by 6% over the one-year timeframe. (To watch Luria's track record, click here)

The broader Street, however, strikes a more optimistic tone. AMD boasts 24 Buys alongside 8 Holds, landing the stock a Moderate Buy consensus rating. With the average price target sitting at $286.80, analysts collectively see potential upside of about 38% over the coming year. (See AMD stock forecast)