週末綜述：必和必拓、Telstra 和銀行業績超出預期

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BHP, Telstra and Banks are smashing expectations

Hi there!

Reporting season is in full swing, and we're pretty lucky to see far less volatility than the first two weeks.

Strength across some of the market's most important (and boring) sectors like Banks, Utilities and Telcos have buoyed the ASX 200 to near record highs (though my colleague Carl Capolingua notes that 74% of constituents are trading at least 20% below their all-time highs).

Anyway, let's dive in to some interesting takeaways from this week.

Investor sentiment survey

This marks the most bearish reading since we started the survey in July 2025. The only comparable result was on 3-Aug-25, where the market fell ~6% in two sessions (though recovered the losses just three weeks later).

Over the next three months, do you expect the Australian stock market to be:

• Bullish
• Neutral
• Bearish

BHP’s bumper result

BHP’s first-half result smashed market expectations as the Big Australian continued to flex its operational excellence and pivot into copper. The first talking point for CEO Mike Henry was the copper division: “This half marks a milestone for BHP with Copper contributing the largest share of our overall earnings, at 51% of Underlying EBITDA.”

The earnings broadly beat consensus (even at an effective tax rate of 43%):

• Revenue up 11% to $27.9bn vs $27.34bn ests (2% beat)
• Profit from operations up 34% to $12.3bn vs $11.93bn ests (3% beat)
• Underlying EPS of $1.22 vs $1.21 ests (1% beat)
• Interim dividend of US$0.73 per share with dividend payout ratio of 60% vs. Macquarie ests of US$0.69 (5.7% beat)

Beyond the result – I really enjoyed these two slides (below) which highlight:

• BHP currently trades at a forward EV/EBITDA multiple of ~6x, right in between diversified peers that trade around 5-7x and pure play copper players at 9.5x. I think they're really trying to make the case that higher copper earnings = give us a higher valuation
• The copper sector is really struggling to grow output against a broad range of challenges. BHP stands out as one of few majors growing production.

To the last point, BHP announced a $18 billion multi-year investment plan to develop its 50% owned Vicuña Project. Without getting into the nitty gritty – it’s probably one of the best copper projects out there, with a peak production of >500tpa copper and an initial 70-year life of mine. Its development will take a three staged approach, where the company is currently still undergoing design and engineering for stage one. The reality is that all three stages will take well over a decade (post-final investment decision) to develop, just to add ... 500tpa or ~2% of supply into the market.

Gee mining is hard.

Banks are killing it

If you had over to our indices page, and filter by best to worst for the past month ... you'd be surprised.

ASX 200 Banks, Energy, Utilities and Financials top the leaderboards. If not for banks, the ASX 200 would be far from current highs.

We've seen some very solid results, followed by some extraordinary moves over the past two weeks, including:

• Commonwealth Bank: 1H26 cash NPAT up 6% to $5.44bn, NIM down 4 bps to 2.04% and loan impairment expenses flat at $319m (32% better-than-expected). Shares rallied 6.8% (11-Feb) and another 5.4% the next day
• ANZ: 1Q26 cash profit up 17% (vs. 2H25 qtr avg) to $1.94bn, NIM up 2 bps to 1.56% and operating expenses down 21% to $2.8bn. Shares rallied 8.4% (12-Feb)
• Westpac: 1Q26 unaudited NPAT up 6% (vs. 2H25 qtr avg) to $1.9bn, NIM down 1 bp to 1.94% and targeting productivity savings of more than $500m in FY26. Shares down 1.1% (13-Feb) but rallied 4.3% in the prior two days
• NAB: 1Q26 update was like the rest, a clean earnings beat, with lower impairment charges. The stock rallied 4.0% (18-Feb).

Year of the Horse

Happy Lunar New Year! It’s the year of the Horse. Each Horse year is associated with one of the five Chinese elements (Wood, Fire, Earth, Metal, Water).

2026 will be a Fire Horse year – considered the most intense and dynamic of the Horse variations, associated with brilliance and strong will, but also volatility (yeah we might know a thing or two about volatility here).

Last year, I ran a fun exercise in observing S&P/ASX 200 price returns based on zodiac years (Feb through Feb returns) since 1980. Unfortunately, the Year of the Horse yields the worst average return and one of the lowest positive returns.

No, no no, listen, AI is a tailwind

AI disruption fears are dominating US earnings season, with mentions of AI disruption in Q4 2025 earnings calls up to a record 126. This is almost double the previous quarter and up over 300% compared to last year.

I recall a quote a few weeks ago, where an analyst said that beating expectations is not enough. These tech companies need to show irrefutable proof that AI is an accelerator and tailwind for the business. It’s a classic case of markets shooting first and asking questions later. Though the trend is clear, if it’s digital, it’s vulnerable.

We’re also seeing that stress appear in the commentary of ASX-listed executives.

:

• Seek: We see that [AI] trend, which is why over some time we have built those capabilities in our own channels and are continuously improving them ... Our leading market positions in eight countries enable us to generate more than 750 million data points daily, the vast majority of which cannot be accessed by any other tool. The insights that our algorithms generate, powered by LLMs, enable us to provide noticeably better matches and proactive recommendations. We know this not by assumption, but by daily experience."
• TechnologyOne: “This increased guidance is not optimism – it is confidence in our customer pipeline …We have strategically invested in our AI Showcase product launches in the first half of FY26, held in Australia and New Zealand and next week in London. These are significant events held against a clear commercial opportunity.”
• CAR Group: “We see AI as a critical enabler and we are embedding it into our products, platforms and operations …Our deep integrations across the vehicle ecosystem provide us with unique data and a structural competitive advantage.”

Another way to put it is: "Please, please don't de-rate us any further."

Last laughs