Under the expected impact of the new policy from the Federal Reserve, overseas liquidity is tightening. At a time of market divergence, Cheng Tan, founder of Tantu Macro, shares insights on asset trends behind closed doors

As the year 2026 begins, global markets are experiencing significant divergence:

• In the stock market, after an 18-day rally, the A-shares have seen some pullback, with trading volume reaching a historical high, approaching 40 trillion. The technology and pro-cyclical sectors have become the main lines of capital, while the U.S. stock market has corrected from high levels. Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Federal Reserve Chairman, igniting hawkish expectations in the market, which is now focused on a shift in Federal Reserve policy measures. During the Spring Festival holiday, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the IEEPA tariffs were illegal, and Trump immediately issued a new executive order imposing a 15% import tariff on goods from all countries and regions, accelerating the 301 and 232 reviews, leading to renewed uncertainty in global tariffs.
• In the bond market, the China bond market showed a bull flattening yield curve, while U.S. Treasuries exhibited a bear steepening trend, with yields rising, and the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in 2026 have become cautious.
• The commodity market is experiencing a stark contrast, with precious metals and non-ferrous metals soaring and rebounding after significant fluctuations, while energy, chemicals, and black metals are underperforming due to supply and demand imbalances.

Regarding global major asset classes and hot industries, the most concerning questions for everyone in the first quarter of 2026 are:

• After the "crazy surge and huge shock" of precious metals like gold and silver, is it a bull market adjustment or a reversal of the trend?
• Can investors still get on board the A-share bull market? Which types of assets are worth paying attention to? How should one choose between Hong Kong stocks and A-shares?
• What challenges will the U.S. stock market face in 2026? Can the tech AI bull market continue?
• What substantial changes will the incoming Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh bring to Fed policy? Is the market's focus on the "Warsh trade" a fleeting moment, or will it make a comeback?
• In the 14th Five-Year Plan, which strategic emerging industries are worth focusing on? Which technological frontiers deserve preliminary research?
• What new products, developments, and technologies are worth noting at globally renowned tech conferences like CES in Las Vegas and NVIDIA's GTC?
• What opportunities and risks lie behind the booming commercial space sector?
• Can anti-involution policies drive continuous increases in commodity prices?
• ......

To help everyone gain clarity on the rotation of major assets and changes in trends, as well as forward-looking interpretations of hot industries in the first quarter of 2026, we plan to invite several heavyweight guests to speak at the Alpha Online Closed-Door Private Sharing Session—Chief Economist of Dunhe Asset Management, a hundred billion private equity firm, Xu Xiaoqing, Chief Strategy Analyst of GF Securities Liu Chenming, renowned economist and author of "Witnessing the Countercurrent" Fu Peng, former Head of Macro Trading for Greater China at Goldman Sachs Yuan Jun, founder of GSB Award Fund and former Managing Director at Deutsche Bank Guo Shengbei, and Chief Analyst of Computers at Soochow Securities Research Institute Wang Zijing The head of equity business at Chengyu Capital and senior semiconductor industry expert from Taiwan, Luo Siyuan and other guests, will share their latest insights on asset trends and rotations, tracking and analyzing geopolitical situations, and industry hotspots.

• This Sunday (March 1) at 20:00, Cheng Tan, founder of Tantu Macro, will hold a closed-door session to share how to understand the policy expectations of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, Waller, and provide a preview of the March Federal Reserve meeting and overseas liquidity.

Cheng Tan, founder and research director of Tantu Macro (GMF Research), holds a Ph.D. in Finance from Peking University's Guanghua School of Management and has published several academic papers in journals such as "Management World." GMF Research is an independent research institution focused on overseas macro and asset class research, serving dozens of leading asset management firms and private equity funds in China.

Each closed-door session also includes a special 30-minute Q&A interaction segment, where participating members can get answers to their most pressing questions from the guests. Friends interested in these closed-door sharing sessions can click the event poster below to register and join the Alpha online closed-door private sharing session membership to hear his latest insights on the market.

The Alpha online closed-door private sharing session is a closed-door meeting service provided by Wallstreetcn for high-net-worth users. Throughout 2026, at least 36 Alpha online closed-door private sharing sessions will be held, averaging 9 sessions per quarter. We will invite top global experts to conduct online closed-door sharing on market hotspots and core issues of interest to everyone, answering questions and helping users understand asset movement trends to assist in key personal decisions.

In 2025, the prominent guests who served as speakers at our Alpha online closed-door private sharing sessions also include:

Xu Xiaoqing, Chief Economist at Dunhe Asset Management, a private equity firm with assets over 10 billion, and a four-time winner of the New Fortune Best Analyst in Fixed Income Research.

Fu Peng, a well-known macroeconomist, senior global FICC trader, and author of "Witnessing the Countercurrent." Liu Chenming Chief Strategy Analyst at GF Securities, awarded first place for three consecutive years as the Best Strategy Analyst by New Fortune.

Wu Ge Chief Economist at Changjiang Securities, winner of China's highest economics award, the "Sun Yefang Economic Science Award."

Wang Kaiwen Chief Strategist at Clocktower Group, head of the research department.

Graduated from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies, previously worked at the International Monetary Fund.

Cao Jingnan Head of Macro Research at Dongfang Securities Research Institute, Chief Analyst for Strategy and Geopolitics.

Mou Yiling Executive Deputy Director and Chief Strategy Officer at Guojin Securities.

Zhang Yu Deputy Director and Chief Macro Analyst at Huachuang Securities Research Institute.

Zhang Jingjing Chief Macro Analyst at China Merchants Securities.

Xia Chun Chief Economist at Shangshan Capital Group.

Cheng Tan Founder and Research Director of Tantu Macro GMF Research.

Former Senior Economist at the Central Foreign Exchange Business Center of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, Vice President of Asset Allocation Department.

Hu Gang Founder and CIO of Winshore Capital, former Vice President at PIMCO, the world's largest bond fund.

She Jianyue Assistant General Manager at Yide Futures, senior crude oil analyst, former Chief Economist of the Crude Oil Department at CNOOC.

Li Lujing Deputy Director and Chief Analyst for Machinery and Military Industry at Founder Securities Research Institute.

Liu Weilin Fund Manager for India at ICBC Credit Suisse Asset Management, Deputy Director of the Index and Quantitative Investment Department.

Ma Xiaolin Dean of the Mediterranean Studies Institute at Zhejiang International Studies University, former Xinhua News Agency correspondent in the Middle East for many years.

In 2026, we will invite more top experts from various fields to bring more exciting closed-door sharing sessions. Welcome to join the 2026 Alpha Online Closed-Door Private Sharing Membership, participate in 36 sessions of Alpha Online Closed-Door Private Sharing, and detailed meeting content will be organized for users to review. Interested friends can click the image below to join Alpha Online Closed-Door Private Sharing Membership