The last time this situation occurred in the U.S. stock market was in 2008
In February 2023, the U.S. stock market experienced a situation similar to that of 2008, with the degree of decoupling between individual stocks and stock indices reaching an unprecedented level. Despite the impact of AI technology on various industries, U.S. economic data remains robust, and cyclical stocks continue to rise. It is expected that by the end of the year, the implied volatility spread between individual stocks and indices will reach 18 volatility points, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis
This February is unusual for the US stock market. On one hand, from software SaaS to real estate agencies, from private equity (PE) to Wall Street financial giants, AI is impacting various industry leaders in succession. On the other hand, US economic data remains robust, and cyclical stocks continue to maintain an upward momentum.
The result is that the degree of decoupling between individual stocks in the S&P 500 and the index has reached an unprecedented level since 2008.
From now until the end of the year (about 210 trading days), the average implied volatility spread between individual stocks and the index is about 18 volatility points.
This implied volatility spread is the largest since the peak of the financial crisis in October 2008 (when the VIX index was around 80).
