Iran's "oil lifeline" - Khark Island, is about to be targeted?

As the conflict between the U.S. and Iran continues to escalate, Iran's most critical economic lifeline is tied to a small island.

On Saturday, the Financial Times reported that Kharg Island—this Persian Gulf island, which accounts for 90% of Iran's crude oil exports—has so far not been targeted by the U.S. or Israel.

Currently, satellite tracking data shows that loading and unloading operations at Kharg Island are still functioning normally, with several supertankers completing loading in the past week. However, behind this calm lies a complex game of power dynamics—Washington's strategic considerations, the risk of rising oil prices, and the far-reaching impact on Iran's post-war economic reconstruction all contribute to the deep logic that has kept this red line from being crossed.

However, as Trump indicated plans to expand the bombing range, Axios reported that the U.S. and Israel have discussed seizing Kharg Island, which is entering the external spotlight in an unprecedented manner. If Kharg Island is attacked, the impact on the global energy market will be incalculable.

Additionally, according to a report by Xinhua News Agency, the U.S. Axios news website disclosed on the 7th that the U.S. and Israel are considering sending special forces into Iran in the later stages of military operations against Iran to seize high-purity enriched uranium. The report stated that this operation is not a traditional "ground troop combat," but rather resembles a small-scale special operations raid, rather than a large-scale troop entry.

90% of Exports Depend on One Island, Strategic Value is Irreplaceable

Kharg Island is located in the northern Persian Gulf, about 25 kilometers from the Iranian coast, covering only a few square kilometers, yet it is the absolute core of Iran's crude oil export system, with 9 out of every 10 barrels of oil exported from Iran loaded on this island. The island was built by the American oil company Amoco in the 1960s and has a maximum loading capacity of 7 million barrels of crude oil per day.

Richard Nephew, former deputy envoy of Iran and current researcher at Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, told the Financial Times: "Without it, the Iranian economy would collapse."

This vulnerability stems from geographical realities: much of Iran's coastline is too shallow to accommodate the world's largest oil tankers, making Kharg Island an irreplaceable deep-water loading hub. The facilities on the island are highly concentrated—there are numerous oil storage tanks in the south, and long piers extend into deep water for supertankers to dock, with underwater pipelines directly connecting it to several major oil fields in Iran. The island suffered large-scale bombings during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, and its strategic value has long been proven by history.

Within the Red Line: Why It Has Not Been Touched So Far

Despite the significant damage caused by U.S.-Israeli joint airstrikes on Iran's military and nuclear facilities, Kharg Island has remained outside the strike range. The Financial Times cited informed sources stating that during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran last year, the island was also deliberately avoided.

Michael Doran, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute and former U.S. official, stated that Washington has long regarded Kharg Island as a red line He pointed out that striking the island could severely damage the current regime, but it would also harm any future Iranian government. "The Trump administration does not want to destroy the foundation of Iran's post-war economy," he said, "and it also does not want to see oil prices rise further."

Doran also stated that Israel might adhere to this limitation. "This is a long-standing red line for the U.S.; Israel cannot allow itself to think outside of the American framework."

In terms of military division of labor, the Financial Times reported that the Israeli Air Force is responsible for striking targets in western and central Iran, while the U.S. military is responsible for the southern flank and territorial waters of Iran—Hark Island is within the area of responsibility of the U.S. military.

Richard Nephew further explained the strategic logic behind this red line: "The U.S. and Israel are aware that once Hark Island is struck, it could prompt Iran to retaliate against the oil infrastructure of Gulf countries. If a regime change is successful, it would also leave the successor government extremely weak."

Signals of Expanding the Scope of Strikes and Options Under Discussion

However, this red line is facing increasing pressure. Trump stated this weekend that he would expand the bombing focus beyond military and nuclear targets, suggesting that "new domains and populations" could be included in the strike range.

According to Axios, the U.S. and Israel have discussed seizing Hark Island, listing it as one of the options. Jarrod Agen, Executive Director of the White House National Energy Council, declared in an interview with Fox Business: "Ultimately, we will no longer have to worry about the Strait of Hormuz because we will take all the oil from 'terrorists.'"

There are also voices within Israel calling for more aggressive actions. Opposition leader Yair Lapid reiterated on Saturday that Israel should "destroy all Iranian oil fields and the energy industry on Hark Island... this is key to paralyzing the Iranian economy and overthrowing the regime."

An executive in the energy industry told the Financial Times: "What I worry about is that the U.S. will become fond of the idea of striking Hark Island, and then all restrictions will be lifted."

Post-War Layout: The Deep Calculations of Oil Assets and Regime Change

Beyond tactical considerations, the issue of Hark Island also reflects Washington's deeper strategic intentions. Some officials in the Trump administration have hinted that the goal of the "long game" may be to ensure that Iran's oil and gas resources fall into "friendly hands."

A person familiar with Israeli actions told the Financial Times that the goal of this military operation remains focused, "not to completely destroy Iran," adding: "The goal is to facilitate regime change."

Michael Doran believes that Hark Island could only be drawn into the current conflict under extreme circumstances—such as if Gulf countries suffer a significant attack from Iran and seek retaliation.

For the energy market, the fate of Hark Island has become one of the most closely watched variables in current geopolitical risks. Every movement there will directly affect global oil price trends and investors' nerves