In the Middle East, when a war breaks out, China's wind power orders go crazy

In March 2026, as the market reported disruptions in shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and concerns over LNG supply from Qatar due to the US-Israel-Iran conflict, Chinese offshore wind giant Goldwind Heavy Industries signed an agreement: to collaborate with the state-owned Szczecin Wulkan Shipyard in Poland to supply 40 core foundational components for the Nordseecluster B offshore wind project (900MW) in the North Sea of Germany.

The company’s self-built 40,000-ton specialized deck transport vessel "KINGONE" set sail from Penglai, Shandong, carrying a batch of monopiles produced for the world's largest offshore wind project—Hornsea 3 (2.9GW) in the UK, heading towards Europe.

A person responsible for European offshore engineering at Tianneng Wind Power saw new market opportunities and told reporters: "When Europe talks about offshore wind power, the conversation has shifted from 'carbon neutrality' to concerns about whether gas supply will be interrupted and whether electricity prices will explode. This is a fundamental difference. For us, orders have changed from optional to rigid, becoming a necessity for delivery."

From the North Sea in Germany to the East Coast of the UK, the intensifying conflict in the Middle East has heightened Europe’s strategic anxiety over energy security. As the local supply chain in Europe shows signs of fatigue under urgent demand, even facing the embarrassment of core suppliers having contracts terminated, the Chinese wind power equipment chain, with its advantages in cost, scale, and delivery certainty, has become a "substitute" in this energy restructuring.

Jin Xin, Chairman of Goldwind Heavy Industries, stated: "In the transformation of Europe’s energy structure, offshore wind power has upgraded from a 'dual carbon option' to a 'mandatory option for energy security.' The wind energy resources and installed capacity potential in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea determine that it will become a core lever for Europe to break free from its dependence on oil and gas."

Urgent Orders

"The first thing European customers say to us now (when communicating) is: 'Can you guarantee delivery?'" A person responsible for international business at Goldwind Heavy Industries described to reporters the subtle changes faced by the company’s frontline orders since the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has become increasingly tense since the end of 2024. He candidly stated that the business rhythm of European customers used to be methodical, but now they require "early capacity locking, early material input, and early shipping schedules." The procurement decision-making cycle has been compressed from 3 to 6 months down to 1 to 2 months.

This sense of urgency has already been reflected in Goldwind Heavy Industries' recent actions, such as signing contracts with Polish shipyards and urgently delivering the Hornsea 3 project.

According to Economic Observer reporters, the company’s overseas orders have exceeded 10 billion yuan, with production scheduled until 2027, and some locked production agreements even extending to 2030.

The management of Goldwind Heavy Industries revealed during an institutional research activity conducted on January 22, 2026, that the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have further amplified Europe’s demand for energy autonomy, directly driving the intensive landing of projects such as the UK AR7 (the seventh round of Contracts for Difference auctions, a key mechanism for the UK government to provide long-term price subsidies for renewable energy projects) and the North Sea cluster in Germany.

In contrast to Goldwind Heavy Industries, the explosion of Haili Wind Power reflects another side of global resonance. Haili Wind Power focuses on the domestic market. Its performance curve for the second quarter of 2025 is nearly steep: revenue increased by 570.63% year-on-year, net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 315.82% year-on-year, and gross profit margin recovered to 17.59% The Economic Observer has learned that during the same period, domestic offshore wind power shipments are rising year-on-year. Behind this trend are both the rush to install equipment in the final year of China's 14th Five-Year Plan and the strong boost to domestic industrial chain confidence from the spillover of European demand amid global energy anxiety.

Xia Chongyao, Chairman of Dongfang Cable, believes that the acceleration of offshore wind power in Europe combined with insufficient domestic submarine cable capacity is the core driver of the company's overseas growth. European submarine cable capacity is projected to be insufficient until 2030, creating a significant supply-demand gap.

A person responsible for European offshore engineering at Tienshun Wind Power stated that they noticed as early as the second quarter of 2025 that German and British clients prioritized the "delivery cycle" of foundational equipment such as monopiles and jackets over pricing. By the third quarter of 2025, EU bidding terms quietly relaxed the rigid requirements for "local manufacturing."

These signals led the team to decide at the end of the third quarter of 2025 to initiate the construction of a base in the Port of Cuxhaven, Germany, nearly a year ahead of competitors. Recently, as the situation in Iran escalated again, the company's board approved the transition of the base from trial production to full production sprint.

The individual stated, "We are not just scrambling at the last minute. We have been preparing for a long time, tracking this project opportunity since the second half of 2024 until it finally materialized." This base, with an annual production capacity of 500,000 tons of ultra-large monopiles and its own dock, will become a "stronghold" for Tienshun Wind Power to serve North Sea projects, "hedging" against shipping risks in the Red Sea.

Yan Junxu, Chairman of Tienshun Wind Power, mentioned during an investor research event in February 2026 that the demand for monopiles and jackets is surging, but local production capacity cannot keep up, making the delivery certainty of Chinese companies a core competitive advantage.

Leaders in the complete machine segment are also being "urged to fulfill orders." Cao Zhigang, President of Goldwind Technology, revealed at a performance meeting in February 2026 that the demand for energy independence in Europe has directly translated into an increase in order priority, with customer decision-making cycles shrinking from 3-6 months to 1-2 months, and overseas orders expected to grow by 150% year-on-year in 2025.

Zhang Chuanwei, Chairman of Mingyang Smart Energy, believes that European offshore wind power has shifted from the "dual carbon" goals to a pressing need for energy security, and the gap in local production capacity represents a core opportunity for Chinese complete machine manufacturers.

The Economic Observer has learned that Mingyang Smart Energy has invested £1.5 billion in the UK to build a full industrial chain base and has won large contracts in the Middle East, including 1500MW in Saudi Arabia and 1500MW in the UAE, with overseas orders exceeding 5GW by 2026.

Filling the Gap

When selecting partners, European clients prioritize delivery capability, cost control, and localization. In the process of collaborating with European clients, Chinese enterprises are increasingly focusing on enhancing their integrated capabilities of "manufacturing + logistics + services."

A person responsible for international business at Dajin Heavy Industry elaborated on their "delivery certainty" moat. First, they have built a top-tier global fleet of specialized vessels, with their own vessels like "KINGONE" having transportation costs per ton that are 40% lower than third-party chartered vessels, reducing reliance on high-risk shipping routes like the Red Sea; second, they have established ports and cooperative production capacity in Cuxhaven, Germany, and Szczecin, Poland, forming a "front store and back factory" model of "Chinese manufacturing large segments, European assembly," which meets localization requirements while shortening delivery cycles; finally, they use a DAP (Delivered at Place) model with all-inclusive pricing, transferring transportation and delivery risks away from the client On February 3, 2026, during an investor research event held by Dajin Heavy Industry at the Caofeidian Marine Engineering Base, the management clearly stated that there is an explosive demand for large monopiles and jackets in Europe, but local production capacity cannot keep up. The delivery certainty of Chinese companies is the core competitiveness. The company's market share in the European offshore wind foundation market increased from 18.5% in 2024 to 29.1% in the first half of 2025, primarily benefiting from "delivery certainty" and "technical adaptability." The company's Caofeidian deep-sea base has passed acceptance by overseas clients and has begun ramping up production capacity, forming a collaborative system of "R&D in Europe, manufacturing in China, and assembly in Europe" with the European assembly base.

A person responsible for international business at Dajin Heavy Industry stated that the core concept of European orders is "ensuring delivery > ensuring price." This person revealed that in September 2025, the company signed a long-term production locking agreement for 400,000 tons with a European giant, with the counterpart paying a one-time locking fee of 14 million euros (i.e., the fee paid to secure exclusive production capacity in advance). This person said, "This proves that our delivery capability itself is a scarce asset."

On the cost side, steel costs account for over 80% of the total cost of marine engineering equipment.

A person responsible for European offshore engineering business at Tianshun Wind Energy revealed to the Economic Observer that the company locks in raw material price fluctuation risks through a contract price adjustment mechanism, while also signing long-term agreements with domestic companies such as Baosteel and Hualing Steel to secure EU-grade steel at prices about 30% lower than those in Europe. "European steel prices are high due to the energy crisis and carbon taxes. We use low-cost domestic steel sources, combined with automation in production lines, to increase steel utilization by nearly 10%, which forms the basis for profits."

Xiao Zunhu, chairman of Hualing Steel, confirmed during an analyst research event in January 2026: "We provide EU-grade wind power steel to Dajin Heavy Industry, Mingyang Smart Energy, etc., signing long-term agreements of 3 to 5 years, with domestic steel prices about 30% lower than those in Europe, helping Chinese wind power companies maintain cost advantages."

On March 1, an industry news shook the European wind power circle: the European local monopile manufacturer SeAH Wind had its supply contract for the UK Hornsea 3 project terminated by Ørsted due to production delays and labor issues. The order gap immediately shifted to Chinese companies like Dajin Heavy Industry. This landmark event not only presents an opportunity for Chinese companies to fill the gap but also signals potential challenges ahead.

Xia Chongyao, chairman of Dongfang Cable, pointed out at a performance exchange meeting in April 2025: "The company has established subsidiaries in the Netherlands and the UK, steadily advancing international market development and industrial layout, with overseas revenue of 733 million yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 480.54%." This forward-looking layout is precisely to address potential supply chain gaps.

The aforementioned person responsible for European offshore engineering business at Tianshun Wind Energy admitted that the urgent supply-demand gap caused by the energy transition in Europe has "opened a door" for the company's business, but once the situation stabilizes, the EU is likely to tighten the requirements for "local manufacturing" in bidding terms again. This is the biggest political risk. Therefore, whether it is Tianshun Wind Energy's German base or Dajin Heavy Industry's cooperation with Polish shipyards, they are essentially "buying amulets" against possible trade barriers Mingyang Smart Energy Chairman Zhang Chuanwei publicly stated in a media interview that what they are promoting in Europe is no longer just simple product exports, but "deeply realizing localization." Goldwind President Cao Zhigang also mentioned in a media interview in November 2025: "China's wind power going overseas cannot be short-sighted. The first half is about building trust, and the second half is about value co-creation. We insist on localized operations in Europe and the Middle East, deeply integrating into the local industrial chain."

Layout

A person responsible for European offshore engineering business at Tianshun Wind Energy candidly told reporters: "I fear three things the most."

The first fear is that costs will eat into profits. The Red Sea shipping route around the Cape of Good Hope has seen freight rates rise by 30%-50%; tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up oil prices, along with the prices of bulk commodities like steel. Although the gross profit from European orders is high, it cannot withstand continuous erosion.

Yang Zhijian, General Manager of COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers, stated that conflicts in the Middle East have led to tensions on the Red Sea route, resulting in a surge in demand for specialized transportation for Chinese wind power companies' overseas deliveries. Therefore, they provide customized shipping solutions for companies like Dajin Heavy Industry and Mingyang Smart Energy, locking in shipping capacity and controlling costs.

The second fear of the aforementioned person is the potential "backstab" from trade barriers. The EU's potential carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) and localization content requirements are a Damocles sword hanging overhead.

During an institutional research activity on January 22, 2026, the management of Dajin Heavy Industry admitted that their countermeasure is to "use localization to resolve barriers and stabilize market share with delivery capabilities."

To address these risks, leading companies are accelerating their localization layout in Europe, striving to transform themselves from "Chinese exporters" to "co-builders of European energy security." For example, Dajin Heavy Industry is collaborating with a Polish shipyard, Tianshun Wind Energy is building a base in Germany, and Mingyang Smart Energy is laying out a full industrial chain base in the UK.

The third fear of the aforementioned person is the concern that some domestic tower manufacturers are recklessly underbidding, ultimately driving down prices and gross profits in the European market, leading to vicious competition. Therefore, Tianshun Wind Energy is currently only engaged in high-margin projects like ultra-large monopiles and floating foundations, avoiding the low-price red sea.

This anxiety prompts companies to look further ahead.

A person responsible for international business at Dajin Heavy Industry revealed that the Middle East has upgraded from a "long-term market" to a "strategic emerging market." From January to February 2026, the number of inquiries received from Middle Eastern clients (i.e., the number of clients actively consulting and expressing cooperation intentions) increased by over 300% year-on-year, and the company has entered the bid shortlist for projects like Saudi NEOM.

Goldwind has laid out even earlier, with its signed Saudi PIF 53GW global largest onshore wind power project becoming a "lighthouse" for Chinese companies in the Middle East. The judgment of Envision Energy CEO Zhang Lei at the 2025 FII9 Summit may represent the industry's consensus: the Middle East conflict accelerates global energy rebalancing, and Chinese wind power is becoming a common choice for Europe and the Middle East.

The aforementioned person responsible for European offshore engineering business at Tianshun Wind Energy said: "We started tracking the capacity gap in European offshore wind power at the beginning of 2023 and decided to invest in the German base in the second half of 2024, which is equivalent to advancing the layout by three years, allowing us to steadily capture current orders." The chairman of Dajin Heavy Industry, Jin Xin, defined its overseas strategy core as deeply cultivating Europe and radiating to emerging markets, with Europe as the fundamental base and emerging markets such as Japan, South Korea, and the Middle East as future growth poles. Relying on Europe's technical certification and delivery performance, it has the capability to quickly enter any high-standard offshore wind power market globally.

From hedging costs to anticipating risks, Chinese companies are striving to become "an indispensable stabilizer" in the reconstruction of the energy landscape.

A person responsible for international business at Dajin Heavy Industry stated: "The core contradiction of offshore wind power in Europe is the mismatch between 'insufficient local effective capacity' and 'the demand for accelerated installation.' As long as this mismatch exists, opportunities for Chinese companies will not disappear."

Source: Economic Observer