The darkest hour has arrived! Goldman Sachs: Memory supply shortages are squeezing, and PC shipments are expected to decline by 12% this year, while Apple grows against the trend

The global PC market is facing a dual impact of a memory supply crisis and rising prices. Goldman Sachs analysts have warned that a structural memory shortage will constrain PC supply and push up end-user prices, with global PC shipments expected to decline significantly by 2026.

Goldman Sachs analyst Katherine Murphy pointed out in a recent report that the "structural supply shortage" in the memory market will limit PC supply capabilities and force manufacturers to raise prices to protect their already thin profit margins. She predicts that global PC shipments will decline by approximately 12% year-on-year to 245 million units in 2026, with consumer PCs expected to drop 15% year-on-year to 108 million units, and commercial PCs declining by 9% year-on-year to 137 million units.

This forecast poses direct pressure on the entire PC supply chain. Dell and HP's PC shipments are expected to decline by a high single-digit to low double-digit percentage year-on-year, while Apple is expected to achieve slight growth through the launch of new products, including the entry-level MacBook Neo. For consumers, rising PC prices have almost become a foregone conclusion.

DRAM and NAND Cost Share Doubles, Manufacturer Profit Margins Under Pressure

Murphy detailed in the report the impact of rising memory costs on the cost structure of PC manufacturing. Under normal market conditions, DRAM and NAND components typically account for about 20% of the total material cost of a PC; however, under the current pricing system, this proportion has risen to about 40%, representing unprecedented cost pressure.

In response to high component costs, PC manufacturers have three main strategies: directly raising product prices, reducing discount promotions, or guiding consumers towards higher-priced products through product mix adjustments. Regardless of the approach taken, the ultimate burden falls on the actual purchase cost for consumers.

Spot Memory Prices Soar, Market Shows Clear Signals

The dramatic fluctuations in memory prices have already been visually reflected in the spot market.

According to data from price tracking website CamelCamelCamel, the Amazon price for a Crucial Pro DDR5 64GB memory kit was around $150 in early autumn 2025, after which it experienced a sharp rise, maintaining a long-term price around $740 this year, an increase of nearly 400%.

Tech media Tom's Hardware has also issued warnings that the sustained high prices of memory are being transmitted throughout the entire consumer electronics supply chain, with the PC market being particularly affected. Goldman Sachs has previously issued multiple warnings regarding the memory shortage issue, characterizing it as a new global technology supply chain bottleneck following AI computing power.

Consumer Market Hit Hardest, Commercial Sector Also Struggles

From a segmented market perspective, the consumer PC segment is clearly more affected than the commercial market. Murphy predicts that consumer PC shipments will decline by 15% year-on-year, higher than the 9% decline for commercial PCs, reflecting that individual consumers are more sensitive to price increases and have greater demand elasticity.

Although the commercial PC market is relatively resilient, it is also unable to completely avoid the dual pressures of tightening supply and rising costs. For investors, the profit outlook for traditional PC giants like Dell and HP faces greater uncertainty, while Apple may maintain relative resilience in adversity due to its new product cycle. Overall, the fundamentals of the PC market in 2026 are clearly under pressure, and the timeline for industry recovery is highly uncertain Risk Warning and Disclaimer

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