Qatar's LNG export interruption reaches the longest since 2008, Asia and Europe start a "gas grab" battle

Qatar's Ras Laffan liquefied natural gas facility has recorded zero exports for five consecutive days, setting the longest shutdown record since at least 2008. The resulting global LNG supply crisis is reshaping trade patterns—cargo ships originally bound for Europe are turning around and heading to Asia, marking the beginning of an intercontinental bidding war.

The shockwaves from the Middle East conflict are rapidly spreading to the global energy market. According to Bloomberg's shipping tracking data, at least eight LNG vessels originally scheduled to head to Europe have diverted to Asia since the outbreak of the conflict, and this trend has accelerated recently. Meanwhile, a smaller LNG export facility in Abu Dhabi is also unable to ship normally, with the combined supply gap from both locations accounting for about 20% of the global LNG total supply. Gas prices in both major consumer markets, Europe and Asia, have surged significantly over the past week, raising concerns about inflation and economic implications.

Under multiple pressures, the previously anticipated LNG supply surplus in 2026 is nearly off the table. Florence Schmit, an energy strategist at Rabobank, stated:

"The market is now facing a supply shortage even with increased supply from the U.S. The timeline for an LNG supply surplus has been pushed back a full year."

Five Days of Zero Exports, Setting a Historical Record for Shutdown

According to Bloomberg's analysis of Kpler shipping tracking data, no fully loaded tankers have departed from the Ras Laffan facility in five days, a situation that has not been recorded since 2008. Since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28, no LNG vessels have passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

The trigger for this shutdown was an attack on the facility by Iranian drones early last week. Although Ras Laffan had previously utilized tank storage to load several shipments, the last shipment departed last Friday, and there have been no further export records since.

According to Bloomberg's estimates based on 2025 production data, for each additional day of interruption, approximately three shipments of Qatari LNG effectively disappear from the market. Most of Qatar's supply goes to Asian importers, who are seeking alternative sources or directly reducing gas supply to end customers such as fertilizer plants and industrial users.

Cargo Ships Diverting, Europe and Asia Competing for Limited Spot Cargo

The tense situation in the global LNG supply competition has begun to alter the flow of physical goods. According to Bloomberg's shipping tracking data, at least eight LNG vessels originally planned to head to Europe have successively diverted to Asia, with this trend becoming particularly evident in recent days.

Europe is under significant pressure—after a winter of consumption, its gas storage levels have dropped sharply, necessitating replenishment before summer arrives. In Asia, temperatures in many regions are expected to be higher than in the same period last year, leading to sustained increases in natural gas consumption due to rising electricity demand for air conditioning in the coming months.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance data shows that global LNG imports totaled 8 million metric tons last week, a decrease of 26% from the previous week; during the same period, LNG supply fell by 16%. Buyers in India, Bangladesh, and Thailand have turned to the spot market to replenish inventories, but some procurement tenders for March deliveries (including those from India) have failed due to seller scarcity and high prices Rystad Energy analyst Mathieu Utting warned, "If this situation continues for months and drags into the depths of summer, there will not be enough alternative LNG sources in the market to meet global demand." He pointed out that the other two major LNG suppliers, the United States and Australia, are operating at near full capacity, leaving little room for increased utilization.

Surplus Expectations Fall Short, Institutions like Morgan Stanley Downgrade Outlook

The impact of the disruption on the market supply-demand pattern is being gradually repriced by mainstream institutions. Morgan Stanley analyst Devin McDermott noted in a research report that the bank previously predicted a surplus of 6 to 8 million tons in the LNG market this year, but if the Qatar shutdown lasts more than a month, the market will "quickly turn to a shortage."

Rabobank's Florence Schmit provided a more specific timeframe: for every week that Qatar's capacity is shut down, the expected supply surplus will be reduced by about 1.5 million tons. At this rate, the market could shift from surplus to shortage in about five weeks. Additionally, QatarEnergy's decision to delay the launch of a major expansion project will also exert additional pressure on overall supply in 2026.

Limited Increment from the U.S., New Capacity Difficult to Fill Gap in the Short Term

As the world's largest LNG exporter, there are significant doubts about whether the United States can timely fill the supply vacuum. Although several new facilities are under construction, the release of capacity will be gradual and unlikely to form an effective substitute in the short term.

The Golden Pass project in Texas, a joint venture between Qatar and ExxonMobil, is nearing completion but has not yet officially commenced production. Cheniere Energy's Corpus Christi facility is still gradually expanding, while Venture Global is advancing the capacity ramp-up of the Plaquemines project in Louisiana and simultaneously constructing a third project, CP2.

The aforementioned new supplies are part of a medium to long-term layout and are unlikely to provide substantial support for the currently tightening spot market in the short term. The rising costs of spot procurement have put pressure on emerging market economies with tight cash flows, and if the shutdown continues, the risk of localized shortages will further increase