Federal Reserve: Raises U.S. GDP growth forecast, raises PCE inflation expectations for this year and next, raises unemployment rate forecast for next year

Federal Reserve Economic Projections Summary (SEP): The median forecast for the U.S. real GDP growth rate in 2026 is 2.4% (previously estimated at 2.3% in December 2025), 2.3% for 2027 (previously estimated at 2.0%), 2.1% for 2028 (previously estimated at 1.9%), and a long-term forecast of 2.0% (previously estimated at 1.8%).

The median forecast for the U.S. unemployment rate in 2026 is 4.4% (previously estimated at 4.4% in December 2025), 4.3% for 2027 (previously estimated at 4.2%), 4.2% for 2028 (previously estimated at 4.2%), and a long-term forecast of 4.2% (previously estimated at 4.2%).

The median forecast for the U.S. PCE inflation rate in 2026 is 2.7% (previously estimated at 2.4% in December 2025), 2.2% for 2027 (previously estimated at 2.1%), 2.0% for 2028 (previously estimated at 2.0%), and a long-term forecast of 2.0% (previously estimated at 2.0%).

The median forecast for the U.S. core PCE inflation rate in 2026 is 2.7% (previously estimated at 2.5% in December 2025), 2.2% for 2027 (previously estimated at 2.1%), and 2.0% for 2028 (previously estimated at 2.0%)