US-Iran negotiation expectations swing back and forth, Asian stocks fall, Korean stocks down over 3%, oil prices slightly up
Iran has explicitly stated it has no intention of direct talks with the US, but reports indicate that Trump wants to end the conflict within four to six weeks. Analysts warn that the war may enter a dangerous third phase of "fighting while talking." Market sentiment has consequently fluctuated: Asian stocks are sluggish, the Korean Composite Index is down 3%, and oil prices are strengthening against the trend, with WTI rising over 1% to $91.34
On Thursday, fluctuating expectations for US-Iran ceasefire talks led to continued market volatility, with Asian stock markets opening lower and international crude oil prices remaining stable while inching upwards.
Iran has explicitly stated it has no intention of direct talks with the US. According to CCTV News, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated in an interview with state television on the 25th local time that the US had conveyed proposals through several friendly countries in the past few days regarding ending the war, which Iran's high command is studying. However, Araghchi emphasized that Iran "exchanging information" through these mediators does not signify negotiations with the United States.
Previously, media outlets cited sources familiar with the matter who claimed Trump privately told advisors he believed the conflict was in its final stages and urged them to adhere to his publicly stated four-to-six-week timeline. Some anticipate the war could conclude before mid-May.
As geopolitical negotiations stall, some analyses predict that the US will intensify military operations before major combat actions conclude (around mid-April) to force Iran to concede, ushering the war into a third phase of "fighting while talking."
Looking at market movements, Asian stock markets opened lower and continued to decline.
The Nikkei 225 index opened 0.2% higher, but is currently down 0.64%, with the TOPIX index down 0.3%. The yield on Japanese 2-year government bonds rose to 1.315%, the first time since 1996.
The Seoul Composite Index in South Korea fell by over 3% during the day, and the Australian S&P/ASX 200 index declined.
Overnight, the three major US stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.66%, the S&P 500 Index up 0.54%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index up 0.77%.
Oil prices remained stable during Asian trading hours, with WTI crude oil up 1.13% for the day, trading at $91.34 per barrel.
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