"Big Banks" - Societe Generale downgraded Cathay Pacific's rating to "Neutral," expecting a negative impact on demand in the second half due to increased fuel surcharges

Société Générale published a research report indicating that Cathay Pacific Airways (00293.HK) raised its fuel surcharge twice in March to cope with soaring fuel costs, with the long-haul fuel surcharge increasing from HKD 569 to HKD 1,560, equivalent to approximately HKD 0.09 per available seat kilometer (HKD/ASK), resulting in a fare increase of about 15% for Cathay's top eight long-haul routes (which account for about 40% of total capacity).

However, the bank's calculations show that considering the group's disclosure of about 30% fuel hedging, the price increase can only pass on about 70% of the rise in jet fuel prices in March (approximately HKD 0.12 per available seat kilometer). Therefore, it is expected that in a high oil price environment, Cathay will face profit pressure later this year.

The bank forecasts that the average jet fuel price will be USD 140 per barrel in 2026, compared to USD 86 in the second half of last year, and expects it to gradually normalize to around USD 80 starting in the second half of 2027, following oil price trends. Although air traffic in the Middle East is disrupted, some demand from Asia to Europe may be diverted through Hong Kong, providing short-term benefits to Cathay, the increase in fuel surcharges will negatively impact demand and passenger load factors starting in the second half of 2026.

Based on updated oil price forecasts, the bank has lowered Cathay's earnings projections for this year and next year by 13% and 5%, to HKD 7.5 billion and HKD 8.9 billion, respectively. The target price has been reduced by 18% from HKD 13.1 to HKD 10.7; the rating has been downgraded from "Outperform" to "Neutral," with valuation risks on the downside