Is Gold Going to $10,000? Here's What the Charts Are Saying
Gold reached an all-time high of $5,600 per ounce in January but has since pulled back to $4,800. Analysts, including JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon, suggest it could rise to $10,000 due to factors like the Fed's rate cuts and geopolitical tensions. While gold's value may increase if the U.S. dollar weakens, a significant market crash may be necessary for it to reach that target. The outlook remains uncertain, with potential for both gains and losses depending on global economic conditions.
Back in January, gold reached its all-time high of about $5,600 per ounce. That was more than double its price of roughly $2,600 per ounce at the end of 2024. It's pulled back to about $4,800 as of this writing. Still, a growing number of prominent analysts, business leaders, and investors -- including JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon -- believe gold could nearly double again to $10,000 per ounce in the near future.
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Why did gold soar over the past two years?
In 2022 and 2023, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to counter inflation. That pressure strengthened the U.S. dollar and reduced gold's value (since it's priced in U.S. dollars). However, the Fed's six rate cuts in 2024 and 2025 weakened the U.S. dollar again, boosting gold's value. At the same time, geopolitical conflicts, trade wars and tariffs, and elevated inflation continued to drive investors toward gold as a safe-haven investment. Many investors flocked to leading gold exchange-traded funds, including SPDR Gold Shares (GLD +1.52%), to profit from that shift.
NYSEMKT: GLD
Key Data Points
The Fed hasn't cut rates yet this year, but the outbreak of the Iran War at the end of February rattled the markets and prompted even more investors to accumulate gold. In late March, the Treasury Department declared the U.S. government insolvent -- which indicates the Fed needs to increase the money supply to tame its debt. The subsequent devaluation of the U.S. dollar could drive gold even higher as the stock market stagnates or slumps.
Could gold really soar to $10,000?
In an interview in late 2025, Dimon said that while he wasn't a gold buyer, he believed it "could easily go to $5,000, $10,000, in environments like this." Dimon noted the U.S. job market was weak and that "asset prices are kind of high" -- and those conditions could drive more investors toward gold and other safe-haven plays.
That's a reasonable take, but it might take longer than expected for gold to hit $10,000. It took gold about five years to double in value from about $1,300 per ounce in 2019 to $2,600 in 2024, so its recent spike could simply have been a knee-jerk reaction to the recent global events.
If the Iran War ends and the macro environment improves, gold could lose its luster as investors again pivot toward riskier investments. But if the U.S. dollar collapses, a global war breaks out, or other disasters ripple through the global economy, it could certainly surge toward $10,000.
I think most investors would prefer the former scenario to the latter. So while gold could theoretically hit $10,000 in the near future, it would likely take a massive market crash -- which would likely offset any gold-related gains -- to reach that target.
