Key Events Next Week: Trump Issues Another "Ultimatum," US-China Inflation Data, Samsung and TFC Earnings

Key Financial Events for the Week of April 6 - April 12, all times are Beijing Time:

Core market themes for next week:

Macroeconomically, focus on US and China inflation and monetary policy. Driven by rising energy prices due to the situation in Iran, the US March CPI month-on-month increase may hit a new high since 2022, which will place more "hawkish" pressure on the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes. Domestically, March CPI, PPI, and financial data will be released intensively. Additionally, the central banks of India, New Zealand, and South Korea will announce their interest rate decisions next week. Markets expect all three central banks to maintain their rates.

Geopolitically, continue to monitor the situation in Iran. Trump has demanded that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz by April 6, a "final ultimatum" that Iran has rejected. Coupled with the expiration of the US license for Russian oil sales, supply risks from geopolitical games will directly impact oil prices and safe-haven assets. Furthermore, the NATO Secretary General will visit the US to meet with Trump.

Industrially, Hygon Information Technology and TFC will release earnings, and Samsung Electronics may issue its Performance Forecast. The commercial aerospace sector may see intensive launches such as the Long March 8A (Modified); the China Information Technology Expo will showcase cutting-edge technologies like embodied intelligence. Additionally, Xiaomi's price adjustments reflecting memory chain pressure, along with NIO's new vehicle launch and the disclosure of the first Q1 report for the Shenzhen market, will form the hot themes for individual stock trading next week.

Additionally, next Monday is Western Easter, and stock markets in many European countries will be closed; in China, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks will be closed for the Qingming Festival.

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Economic Indicators

• China CPI, PPI, Foreign Exchange Reserves, and Financial Data

On April 7, China's foreign exchange reserve data for March will be announced. Previously, China has increased its gold holdings for 16 consecutive months.

On April 10, China will release its March CPI and PPI data. Industrial Securities expects that the March PPI year-on-year may turn positive and could break 1% in April; after the Spring Festival distortion dissipates, the March CPI year-on-year may decline slightly.

In the week of April 9, China's March financial data will be released. Industrial Securities expects that March credit may see a seasonal increase in volume, but the pace of government bond issuance will slow year-on-year, leading to a slight year-on-year decline in total social financing (TSF) and a corresponding drop in M1 year-on-year.

• US March CPI, February PCE

On April 10, the US will release its March CPI data. Affected by soaring energy prices due to the war in Iran, the market generally expects inflation to rise significantly. The headline CPI month-on-month increase for March is expected to reach 0.9%, a new high since June 2022, with the year-on-year growth rate expected to rise from 2.4% to 3.3%.

On April 9, the US will release the February PCE Price Index, which is the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. The market expects the core PCE inflation month-on-month to strengthen from 0.36% to 0.44%, while the year-on-year growth rate is expected to fall from 3.1% to 3.0%. Since last September, core PCE and core CPI have shown significant divergence due to statistical differences. US Q4 real GDP data will also be released on the same day.

• Central Bank Decisions for South Korea, New Zealand, etc.; Japan's February Labor Cash Earnings

Next week, the central banks of India, New Zealand, and South Korea will successively announce their interest rate decisions. Markets expect all three central banks to maintain their rates. Subsequent policy paths may depend on the transmission of the Middle East situation to their respective economies.

On April 8, Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare will release the February labor cash earnings data. Bloomberg forecasts that the year-on-year increase in labor cash earnings for February may slow to 2.5% from 3.0% in January, and the real earnings year-on-year increase is expected to drop from 1.4% to 1.1%. The main focus will be whether the strong momentum of spring wage negotiations is reflected in the data.

• Federal Reserve to Release Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

The Federal Reserve will release the minutes of the March 17-18 FOMC meeting. The market expects the minutes to show the committee's inclination to wait and see amid high uncertainty caused by the war in Iran. Powell hinted that the committee would only consider disregarding the oil shock once it sees progress in core inflation as the impact of tariffs fades.

Subsequently, Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Fed and a 2027 FOMC voter, will deliver a speech on monetary policy.

Financial Events

• Continued Focus on Iran Situation, Trump Issues Another "Final Ultimatum"

According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum demanding that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz by April 6, a "final ultimatum" that Iran has rejected.

April 6 is also the deadline set by Trump for postponing airstrikes on Iran's energy facilities. However, the situation in the Middle East continues to shift, and military actions by both sides have been escalating recently.

• US Approves License for Some Russian Oil Sales, Expiring April 11

According to previous reports by CCTV, the US Treasury Department issued a general license related to Russia, allowing the sale of Russian crude oil and petroleum products already loaded onto vessels from March 12, with such sales permitted until 00:01 AM Eastern Time on April 11.

• NATO Secretary General to Visit US from April 8-12 to Meet Trump

NATO: Secretary General Rutte will travel to the US from April 8-12. Rutte will meet with US President Trump, Secretary of State Rubio, and Secretary of Defense Hegseth on April 8. According to Xinhua News Agency, Trump is "seriously considering" having the US withdraw from NATO.

• Cheng Li-wen to Visit Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Beijing from April 7 to 12

Kuomintang (KMT) Chairwoman Cheng Li-wen will lead a KMT delegation to visit Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Beijing from April 7 to 12.

• Long March 8A (Modified) Expected to Launch on April 7

Additionally, April will see intensive catalysts for commercial aerospace: 1. Tianlong-3, planned for launch on April 2, marks the maiden flight of China's first 20-ton class liquid rocket. 2. Long March 8A (Modified), expected to launch on April 7. 3. Zhuque-2E, expected to launch from Jiuquan in April for modified re-flight and reliability verification. 4. Zhuque-3, expected in late April for recovery verification.

On the overseas SpaceX front: 1. Falcon 9 is expected to have 3-4 routine launches in early April. 2. Starship V3 is expected to make its maiden flight in early-to-mid April; if successful, it will lay the foundation for lunar missions and the development of space computing power.

• Xiaomi Increases Prices for Some Mobile Phone Products

Xiaomi announced that due to the continuous and sharp rise in prices of key components such as global memory chips, the company will adjust the suggested retail prices of some in-sale products starting from 00:00 on April 11, 2026, after careful evaluation. This adjustment involves three models: the REDMI K90 Pro Max will increase by 200 yuan, while the Turbo 5 and Turbo 5 Max will have their Chinese New Year special offers canceled, though the 512GB large memory versions will continue to receive a 200-yuan subsidy.

• The 14th China Information Technology Expo Opens

The 14th China Information Technology Expo (CITE 2026) will be held from April 9 to 11, 2026, at the Shenzhen Convention and Exhibition Center (Futian), with more than 1,200 leading enterprises and innovative teams from around the world participating. In the embodied intelligence sector, star companies such as Unitree Robotics, Evolution Resources, Agibot, DOBOT, and Lingxin Qiaoshou will make collective appearances. Additionally, this expo will host the first AI OPC Robotics/Hardware Hackathon.

• ASEAN Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting

The ASEAN Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting will be held from April 7 to April 10.

• NIO ES9 Technology Launch Event

The product technology launch event for the NIO ES9, a flagship large luxury executive SUV under the NIO brand, will be officially held on April 9. The NIO ES9 will be unveiled at the same time.

Earnings

• Samsung Electronics Performance Forecast May Be Issued

Samsung Electronics is set to release its Q1 2026 Performance Forecast next Tuesday, with markets expecting its single-quarter operating profit to approach its full-year level from last year.

According to LSEG's analyst consensus, Samsung Electronics' operating profit for January to March this year is expected to reach 40.5 trillion won, approximately 26.9 billion US dollars. In comparison, the world's largest memory chip manufacturer's full-year operating profit for 2025 was 43.6 trillion won. Meanwhile, LSEG data shows that Samsung Electronics' Q1 revenue is expected to grow by 50% year-on-year, driven by an "unprecedented super cycle" in memory chips.

Additionally, next week, companies including Hygon Information Technology, Inspur Information, TFC, AEON, Fast Retailing, Qatar National Bank, Applied Digital, and ExxonMobil will release their earnings reports.

• Shenzhen-listed Companies' 2026 Q1 Report Disclosure Schedule Released; Wohaipharma to Lead

The scheduled disclosure times for the 2026 Q1 reports of Shenzhen-listed companies have been released. Wohaipharma will be the first to disclose its Q1 report on April 8, 2026, followed by *ST Yunwang, Kerryd, Junda Shares, Runze Technology, and Chenhua Shares, which will disclose on April 9 and April 10, 2026, respectively.

Overview of disclosure dates for some A-share 2025 annual reports next week:

Overview of disclosure dates for A-share 2026 Q1 reports next week:

Overview of Hong Kong stock earnings disclosure dates next week: