Trump Warns of Action on the Night of the 7th, Says Iran Could Be Defeated Overnight; US Stock Indices Briefly "Flash Crash," US Oil Hits New Nearly Four-Year High

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly reiterated that Tuesday, April 7, is the final deadline for Iran to reach an agreement, warning that if the deadline is missed, US attacks will escalate and target Iranian civilian infrastructure. This has raised concerns that military action will disrupt the preliminary progress made in maintaining navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Broad US stock indices briefly turned negative following Trump's warning, and US oil extended its intraday gains, once again closing at a near four-year high.

According to CCTV News, on Monday, April 6 local time, US President Trump held a press conference regarding the war with Iran. Trump stated that the entire country of Iran could potentially be completely crushed overnight, and that night might be the night of April 7.

US Secretary of Defense Hegseth stated at the press conference that the "largest-scale airstrike" since the start of the Iran operations would be launched this Monday, and the scale on Tuesday would be even larger than Monday's. Trump stated that his goal is not regime change in Iran, but to prevent it from possessing nuclear weapons.

Trump reiterated that 8 PM on Tuesday, the 7th, is the final deadline for Iran to reach an agreement to avoid US airstrikes on energy facilities. He said that Iran has an "active and willing (negotiating) participant," stating that "they want to reach an agreement," and added that he believes Iran is negotiating in good faith, with many "excellent" countries helping to support the US-Iran talks.

When asked if he was gradually ending the war, Trump replied: "I don't know, I can't say for sure. It depends on their (Iran's) actions."

During the period when Trump mentioned the possibility of crushing Iran on Tuesday, all three major US stock indices briefly turned lower, with the S&P and Nasdaq both hitting new daily lows. Subsequently, the three major indices returned to slight gains and ultimately ended the day collectively higher.

Major US stock indices opened mixed, rose in unison during early trading, and all turned lower during Trump's speech in the afternoon

During Trump's speech, international crude oil futures accelerated their gains. US WTI crude oil, which rose 3.5% at its intraday high in early Asian trading, saw its intraday gains expand back above 2%. Brent crude oil, which rose 2.6% in early Asian trading, briefly broke back above $111, rising nearly 1.9% on the day.

US oil turned lower multiple times during Monday's session. It turned higher after Iran rejected a US ceasefire agreement and extended its gains after Trump warned of crushing Iran overnight

Steve Sosnick, Chief Strategist at Interactive Brokers, commented: "The market sees the 'carrot' and the 'stick'—on one hand, ceasefire negotiations, and on the other, continued bombing. Aside from the brief volatility early in Trump's speech, the stock and oil markets reacted relatively calmly; investors clearly still hope that hostilities will not escalate rapidly."

European stocks were closed. The S&P and Nasdaq gained for the fourth consecutive day, while the Dow rebounded, with all closing at at least two-week highs after briefly turning lower intraday. The semiconductor index rose more than 1%, outperforming the broader market for four consecutive days; storage chip stocks that plunged last week rebounded, with SanDisk and Micron rising over 3%. AppLovin, an AI concept stock favored by two Wall Street firms, rose nearly 7%.

US Benchmark Stock Indices:

• The S&P 500 Index closed up 0.44% at 6611.83 points.
• The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed up 165.21 points, or 0.36%, at 46669.88 points.
• The Nasdaq Composite closed up 117.155 points, or 0.54%, at 21996.337 points.
• The Nasdaq 100 Index closed up 0.61% at 24192.166 points.
• The small-cap Russell 2000 Index closed up 0.42% at 2540.643 points.
• The Nasdaq Technology Market-Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC) closed up 0.71% at 2194.6338 points.
• The VIX volatility index closed up 1.17% at 24.15.

US Sector ETFs:

• The semiconductor sector ETF closed up over 1%, the banking ETF rose nearly 1%, while the solar energy ETF fell over 1%, and the utility ETF dropped 0.37%.

The Magnificent Seven Tech Giants:

• The Bloomberg Magnificent 7 Total Return Index closed up 0.28%.
• Apple closed up nearly 1.2%, its fifth consecutive gain; Amazon rose over 1.4%, and Alphabet climbed nearly 1.1%, all rebounding after pulling back last Friday. Nvidia closed up over 0.1%, marking its fourth consecutive day of gains.
• Tesla, which fell over 5% last Friday, closed down nearly 2.2%, continuing its slide after announcing lower-than-expected first-quarter deliveries. Meta closed down nearly 0.3%, and Microsoft fell nearly 0.2%.

Chip Stocks:

• The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed up 1.06% at 7916.105 points.
• AMD rose over 1.2%, TSMC's US shares rose 0.8%, while Broadcom closed down 0.04%.
• Among storage chip stocks that plummeted last week, SanDisk closed up nearly 3.3%, Micron Technology rose nearly 3.2%, Western Digital gained about 3.1%, and Seagate Technology surged nearly 5.6%.

AI Concept Stocks:

• AppLovin (APP) closed up 6.8%. BTIG raised its first-quarter earnings expectations for the stock, anticipating steadier performance from non-gaming advertisers on a quarter-over-quarter basis. Wedbush reiterated its outperform rating, emphasizing that its generative AI advertising suite will be a catalyst for the share price.
• Palantir (PLTR) closed down nearly 0.4%, and Oracle (ORCL) fell nearly 0.6%.

Chinese Concept Stocks:

• The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index closed down 0.21% at 6737.02 points.
• Pony.ai fell 2.8%, WeRide fell 1.9%, XPeng Motors dropped 1.7%, Nio fell nearly 1%, while Alibaba rose 0.2%.

Highly Volatile Stocks:

• Asset management firm Invesco closed down 5.2% after BlackRock filed with the SEC to launch a product as an alternative to its QQQ Trust, which tracks the Nasdaq 100.
• Electric vehicle manufacturer Lucid Group (LCID) closed down 6.3%. The company announced after the market closed last Friday that deliveries of its Gravity SUV were interrupted for 29 days due to second-row seat quality issues originating from a supplier.
• Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO), a biopharmaceutical company developing rare disease treatments, closed up 32.3% after announcing a cash acquisition agreement with Neurocrine Biosciences at $53 per share.

European bonds were closed. Medium-to-long-term US Treasury prices rebounded, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell.

The 10-year benchmark US Treasury yield approached 4.37% during typical European trading hours, hitting a daily high. It gave back its gains and turned lower after the US market opened, dropping below 4.32% during midday US trading to a daily low. By the end of the bond market session, it was around 4.33%, down about 1 basis point on the day, retreating after last Friday's rebound.

The 2-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to interest rate prospects, rose above 3.87% during typical European trading hours for a daily high. It fell below 3.84% during midday US trading for a daily low before recovering slightly. By the end of the bond market session, it was around 3.85%, up about 1 basis point on the day, marking its second consecutive day of gains.

During Trump's press conference on the Iran conflict, the US dollar index briefly turned positive; Bitcoin broke $70,000 intraday, up over 4% from its daily low.

US Dollar:

• The ICE US Dollar Index (DXY) hit a daily high of 100.286 in early Asian trading, up nearly 0.3% on the day. it turned lower during typical European morning hours and hit a daily low of 99.757 in early US trading, down nearly 0.3% on the day. During Trump's Iran press conference in midday US trading, it briefly turned positive.
• By the end of the Monday currency session, the dollar index was slightly below 100.00, down marginally on the day. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the dollar against ten other currencies, fell over 0.1% on the day, with both indices halting a two-day winning streak.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index generally pulled back slightly on Monday, though it briefly turned higher in midday US trading

Renminbi:

• The offshore yuan (CNH) against the US dollar hit a daily low of 6.8915 in early Asian trading. It turned higher during the Asian session and largely maintained its gains, hitting a daily high of 6.8723 in early US trading—up 192 points from its daily low. At 4:59 AM Beijing time on April 7, the offshore yuan was at 6.8747 against the dollar, up 112 points from last Friday's New York close, marking its second consecutive day of gains.

Cryptocurrencies:

• Bitcoin (BTC) fell below $67,400 in early Asian trading for a daily low but generally trended upward thereafter. It broke $70,300 during the US session, hitting its highest level since March 26 and rising nearly $3,000, or over 4%, from its daily low. By the US close, it was above $69,600, up over 3% in the last 24 hours.
• Ethereum (ETH) fell below $2,050 in early Asian trading for a daily low. It broke $2,170 during typical European trading hours, hitting its highest level since March 25 and rising about 6% from its daily low. By the US close, it was above $2,140, up nearly 4% in the last 24 hours.

International crude oil futures opened higher and turned lower several times during Asian, typical European, and US trading hours. They turned higher after falling at least 2% intraday to close higher for a second straight day, with US oil again closing at a new high since June 2022.

Crude Oil:

• At its daily high in early Asian trading on Monday, US WTI crude rose to $115.48, up over 3.5% on the day. Brent crude rose to $111.89, up over 2.6%. During typical European early morning hours, US oil hit a daily low of $108.89, down nearly 2.4% on the day, while Brent fell to $106.85, down about 2%.
• WTI crude oil futures for May delivery closed up $0.87, or nearly 0.78%, at $112.41 per barrel, marking their highest closing level since June 2022 for the second consecutive trading day. Brent crude oil futures for June delivery closed up $0.74, or nearly 0.68%, at $109.77 per barrel, the highest since March 20.

US Gasoline and Natural Gas:

• NYMEX May gasoline futures closed up 0.61% at $3.3082 per gallon, rising for a second day after two days of declines. NYMEX May natural gas futures closed up 0.39% at $2.8110 per million BTUs, after four days of declines.

Gold turned higher after falling more than 1% intraday, while silver dropped more than 2% intraday.

Gold

• At its daily low in Asian trading, New York gold futures fell to $4,626.2, down over 1.1% on the day. Spot gold fell below $4,601, down more than 1.6%. After turning higher during the Asian session, gold futures rose to $4,733.1 at their intraday high during typical European trading hours, up over 1.1% on the day, while spot gold rose to $4,706.65, up over 0.6%. Both turned lower more than once during US trading.
• By the close of futures trading in midday US hours, COMEX June gold futures, which halted a four-day winning streak last Friday, closed up 0.1% at $4,684.7 per ounce. In late Monday trading, spot gold was below $4,649.90, down nearly 0.6% on the day.

Spot gold fluctuated within a narrow range around $4,650 on Monday

Silver

• New York silver futures closed lower for the second consecutive day after four straight gains. They hit a daily low of $71.335 in early Asian trading, down nearly 2.2% on the day, but turned higher several times during the session. COMEX May silver futures closed down 0.1% at $72.847 per ounce.
• Spot silver fell below $71.20 in early Asian trading on Monday to a daily low of $71.1908, down 2.5% on the day, before turning slightly higher in late US trading.