Breakfast | US Stock Indices Close at Over Two-Week Highs! Chip Stocks Outperform Broader Market for Four Days

Market Overview

Iran rejected the ceasefire proposal, and Trump warned of action on the 7th, causing US stock indices to "flash crash" but ultimately close higher. US oil hit a new nearly four-year high.

After Trump claimed the US could swiftly defeat Iran overnight, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit intraday lows. US oil rose over 2%. Trump stated that Iran has positive and willing participants in negotiations, that Iran wishes to reach an agreement and is sincere about talks, and that whether the war gradually ends depends on Iran's actions. The three major US stock indices rose slightly, closing at their highest levels in at least over two weeks. Chip stocks outperformed the broader market for four consecutive days, with SanDisk and Micron rising over 3%; AppLovin gained nearly 7%. Blue Owl, at the center of the private credit storm, hit a new all-time low.

Prices of medium- to long-term US Treasury bonds rebounded. During Trump's press conference on the Iran conflict, the US dollar index briefly turned higher.

Bitcoin broke through $70,000 intraday, rising over 4% from its daily low, outperforming US stocks.

Oil prices, after falling at least 2% intraday, turned higher and closed higher for two consecutive days. Gold prices fell over 1% intraday before briefly turning higher.

Key News

Trump: Iran's response to the ceasefire proposal is not good enough, demanding "taking oil," the final deadline on the 7th is unchangeable, and the US should charge for passage through the Strait of Hormuz; Iran can be defeated overnight, perhaps on the evening of the 7th. If Iran does not "surrender" by 8 PM on the 7th, the US will destroy its civilian facilities, taking only four hours to destroy Iran's power plants and bridges. Trump revealed details of the pilot rescue operation: mobilizing 176 various aircraft, implementing deception tactics, and searching for media leakers.

Iran refused a temporary ceasefire and responded to the US ceasefire proposal with 10 terms, stating it would continue fighting as long as its leadership deems appropriate.

The Israeli military announced airstrikes on Iran's largest petrochemical facilities, resulting in the death of a commander of Iran's "Quds Force" special operations unit.

The US March ISM Services PMI fell to 54, with the prices paid index reaching a nearly three-year high and one of the largest increases in nearly 14 years; the employment index unexpectedly fell into contraction territory.

Samsung Electronics expects a 755% surge in operating profit in the first quarter, with quarterly profit exceeding the full year's profit from last year.

Broadcom will supply TPU chips to Google and provide computing power to Anthropic, with its stock rising 3% after hours.

Regarding the timing of its IPO, OpenAI has internal disagreements: Altman wants the fourth quarter, while the CFO believes it is not yet ready. OpenAI released a white paper on industrial policy in the AI era, calling for the establishment of a public wealth fund and a rapid response safety net.

In the era of "everyone programming," new apps on the Apple App Store surged 84% in one quarter.

Market Close

European and American Stock Markets: S&P 500 rose 0.44% to 6611.83 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.36% to 46669.88 points. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.54% to 21996.337 points.

A-shares: Closed.

Bond Market: The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell 0.99 basis points to 4.3307%. The yield on the US 2-year Treasury note rose 0.41 basis points to 3.8436%.

Commodities: WTI crude oil futures for May delivery rose 0.78% to $112.41 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures for June delivery rose 0.68% to $109.77 per barrel. Spot gold fell 0.54% to $4651.24 per ounce. Spot silver fell 0.23% to $72.8569 per ounce.

Key News Details

Global Highlights

Trump: Iran's response to the ceasefire proposal is not good enough, demanding "taking oil," the final deadline on the 7th is unchangeable, and the US should charge for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump stated that Iran's proposal, while meaningful, was not good enough; if Iran does not relent, it will "lose everything"; he reiterated that Iran cannot possess nuclear weapons; regarding Iran's oil, he said spoils belong to the victor; he threatened to defeat Iran overnight, possibly on the evening of April 7th, and if Iran does not "surrender" by 8 PM on the 7th, he would strike its civilian facilities, taking only four hours to destroy Iran's power plants and bridges. Reports indicate that the 45-day ceasefire agreement proposed by the US, which Iran rejected, was just one of many options under discussion, and US military actions against Iran are ongoing; US officials stated that Iran's response to the US proposal was "overly demanding."

Iran rejects temporary ceasefire, proposes 10 terms in response to US ceasefire proposal, stating it will continue fighting as long as its leadership deems appropriate. According to Iranian media, Iran responded by rejecting a temporary ceasefire based on past experiences, emphasizing the need to "permanently end the war" with consideration for Iranian interests. Iran proposed a series of demands, including ending regional conflicts, establishing a security transit protocol for the Strait of Hormuz, post-war reconstruction, and the lifting of sanctions. The Iranian military claimed to have shot down two US and Israeli drones.

Trump reveals details of pilot rescue operation: mobilizing 176 various aircraft, implementing deception tactics, and searching for media leakers. Trump stated that the US military successfully rescued the pilot of a downed aircraft shot down by Iran, with zero casualties in the rescue operation; initially mobilizing 21 military aircraft, the second rescue involved up to 155 various aircraft, and two transport planes were destroyed; those who leaked sensitive information about the missing pilot should be imprisoned.

• Loss of 4 helicopters and two MC-130 transport aircraft, penetrating 300 kilometers into Iranian territory - was this a "successful" rescue operation, or a "failed" raid to extract enriched uranium? Penetrating deep into Iranian territory, destroying 6 military aircraft to save one pilot? The US military's "boldest rescue in history" causes shockwaves! Iran points to the unusual location of the operation, suggesting it was a cover for "stealing enriched uranium." Behind this high-stakes raid near nuclear facilities, was it a simple rescue or a clandestine operation?

Israeli military claims airstrikes on Iran's largest petrochemical facilities, resulting in the death of a commander of Iran's "Quds Force" special operations unit. The Israeli military announced strikes on two major Iranian petrochemical complexes, severely impacting over 85% of Iran's petrochemical export capacity; facilities related to Asaluyeh, Iran's largest petrochemical complex, are a crucial supply hub for Iran's missile industry; Israel will continue to increase its strikes on Iran's core weapons production infrastructure.

US March ISM Services PMI falls to 54, with the prices paid index reaching a nearly three-year high and one of the largest increases in nearly 14 years. The US March ISM Services PMI dropped to 54, below expectations and significantly declining, indicating a slowdown in growth momentum. The structure showed clear divergence: new orders remained strong, but inflationary pressures intensified significantly – the prices paid index surged to its highest level since October 2022 and recorded one of the largest increases in nearly 14 years; meanwhile, the employment index unexpectedly fell into contraction territory, becoming the biggest drag. The Middle East conflict is pushing up energy costs and disrupting supply chains, further exacerbating inflation and uncertainty.

Samsung Electronics expects a 755% surge in operating profit in the first quarter, with quarterly profit exceeding the full year's profit from last year! Samsung Electronics' first-quarter operating profit reached 57.2 trillion Korean won, more than eight times that of the same period last year, far exceeding market expectations and reaching a new historical high, surpassing the entire previous year's profit. The surge in demand for AI and data centers has driven a significant increase in memory chip prices, becoming the core driver of performance.

Broadcom will supply TPU chips to Google and provide computing power to Anthropic, with its stock rising 3% after hours. Broadcom disclosed a long-term agreement with Google to supply its next-generation AI systems with custom TPUs and networking equipment, extending the collaboration until 2031; it is also deepening its partnership with Anthropic, providing approximately 3.5 gigawatts of computing power starting in 2027. The news boosted Broadcom's stock by over 3% in after-hours trading on Monday.

Regarding the timing of its IPO, OpenAI has internal disagreements: Altman wants the fourth quarter, while the CFO believes it is not yet ready. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman stated his desire to complete an IPO as early as the fourth quarter of this year, while CFO Sarah Friar remains skeptical about whether the company's revenue can support its spending commitments of over $600 billion within five years, believing the company is not yet ready for public listing.

OpenAI released a white paper on industrial policy in the AI era, calling for the establishment of a public wealth fund and a rapid response safety net. As superintelligence approaches, how can workers protect themselves? OpenAI has put forward a significant policy proposal: suggesting the establishment of a "public wealth fund" to allow everyone to share in the benefits of AI, calling for a pilot of a four-day work week, and establishing an on-demand unemployment assistance network. A social transformation concerning wealth redistribution has already begun.

In the era of "everyone programming," new apps on the Apple App Store surged 84% in one quarter. AI programming tools are revolutionizing application development. Apple's App Store saw a year-on-year surge of 84% in new apps in Q1 this year, reversing the cumulative decline of 48% from 2016 to 2024. "Vibe coding" tools like Claude Code and Codex have significantly lowered development barriers, but Apple is beginning to increase control over such applications.

Blue Owl, at the center of the private credit storm, hits a new all-time low. Blue Owl's stock fell 1.4% on Monday, closing at $8.45, a new all-time low, below its previous low set at the end of 2022. Last Thursday, the company announced restrictions on redemptions from two of its private credit funds amid a surge in redemption requests, with its stock hitting an intraday all-time low that day.

There are no signs of relief in the private credit sector! Goldman Sachs narrowly avoids redemption limit, Barings forced to impose limits. Funds managed by Goldman Sachs had a redemption ratio close to the 5% limit in the first quarter, narrowly avoiding triggering restrictions, while Barings' private equity fund was forced to cap redemptions at 5% due to redemption requests totaling 11.3%.

Research Highlights

JPMorgan CEO warns: Iran war could push up inflation and interest rates. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon issued a significant annual warning: the oil price shock could be a "party pooper," potentially triggering an inflation rebound, pushing up interest rates, and severely impacting asset prices! At the same time, he sharply criticized the underwriting degradation and hidden risks in the private credit market and critically questioned private institutions for missing the opportunity for IPOs during the bull market. Is a financial storm brewing?

"Internet-famous AI research institution": Public data misreported 50% of actual traffic in the Strait of Hormuz. Is the Strait of Hormuz open or closed? Citrini analysts risked their lives to go to the scene to "count ships" and uncover the truth: public AIS systems actually missed nearly 50% of the real traffic! The strait is not simply "open or closed," but is under "dynamic enforcement" that is constantly changing. Global energy and shipping supply chains will face more frequent and unpredictable sharp fluctuations. Abandoning single data sources and mastering multi-source verification information advantages have become key to trading success.

Domestic Companies

Luo Fuli: The cost black hole of large language models is becoming apparent, requiring an Agent framework with higher token efficiency. Luo Fuli, head of Xiaomi's MiMo large model, pointed out that OpenClaw generated several times the number of requests compared to Claude's native framework; if charged via API, the cost would be tens of times the subscription price. Anthropic's blockage of third-party subscription access has exposed the cost of inefficiency, forcing developers to improve context management and reduce ineffective token consumption.

Overseas Macroeconomics

Inflation concerns coupled with weakened Federal Reserve rate cut expectations push Japanese 10-year government bond yields to a 27-year high. Last Friday's non-farm payroll data weakened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut. Persistent inflationary pressures from the US-Iran conflict and concerns about Japan's fiscal expansion drove the yield on Japanese 10-year government bonds to a 27-year high on Monday. Valuation losses are forcing Japanese institutions to sell overseas risk assets and repatriate funds. At the same time, rising interest rates are putting upward pressure on the yen, further suppressing dollar-denominated assets.

90% of crude oil depends on the Strait of Hormuz, Sanae Takaichi seeks talks with Iranian leadership. Facing a sharp decline in crude oil imports and 43 ships stranded, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is urgently mediating with US and Iranian high-level officials. Japan has accelerated its search for alternative oil sources and is considering releasing additional national oil reserves to fully resolve the imminent energy supply crisis.

Iraq notifies buyers to pick up their oil themselves, stating its crude can pass through the Strait of Hormuz. After a 97% drop in exports in March, Iraqi crude oil finally sees a glimmer of "exemption"! The government has urgently notified Asian buyers to resume pickup of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. However, the details of the exemption are vague, and buyers must face transit risks directly. Asian markets are generally cautiously observing, urgently awaiting more security assurances from Iraq. The full recovery of the strait passage remains uncertain.

Today's News Outlook

China's March foreign exchange reserves.

Eurozone and UK March services and composite PMIs.

US February durable goods orders.

Speech by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee.

EIA releases its Short-Term Energy Outlook report.

Long March 8A modified rocket, expected to launch on April 7th.