Everbright Securities: Tesla deliveries continue to decline, March domestic new energy vehicle sales show month-on-month recovery

Zhitong
2026.04.07 02:59

Everbright Securities pointed out that Tesla's delivery volume continued to decline in the first quarter of 2026, mainly affected by intensified global competition and the reduction of electric vehicle subsidies in the United States. In March, domestic new energy vehicle sales showed a month-on-month recovery, with Li Auto's delivery volume increasing by 11.9% year-on-year, Nio's delivery volume increasing by 136.0% year-on-year, while XPeng's delivery volume decreased by 17.4% year-on-year. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of order recovery and the realization of financial report performance

According to the Zhitong Finance APP, China Merchants Securities released a research report stating that Tesla's (TSLA.US) deliveries continued to decline in Q1 2026, with deliveries falling short of expectations mainly due to intensified global competition and the reduction of electric vehicle subsidies in the United States. In the domestic market, the sales of new energy vehicles in March showed a month-on-month recovery, with Li Auto-W (02015) delivering 41,053 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 11.9% and a month-on-month increase of 55.4%; Nio-SW (09866) delivering 35,486 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 136.0% and a month-on-month increase of 70.6%; XPeng Motors-SW (09868) delivering 27,415 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 17.4% and a month-on-month increase of 79.7%. The rebound in some complete vehicle targets in March was mainly due to an oversold rebound after a low point in sentiment/valuation, and attention should still be focused on the sustainability of order recovery and the realization of financial report performance.

The main points from Everbright Securities are as follows:

Tesla's deliveries continued to decline in Q1 2026

In Q1 2026, Tesla's global delivery volume increased by 6.3% year-on-year but decreased by 14.4% month-on-month to 358,000 units (Model 3 + Y increased by 5.6% year-on-year but decreased by 15.9% month-on-month to 342,000 units). The lower-than-expected deliveries in Q1 2026 were mainly due to intensified global competition and the reduction of electric vehicle subsidies in the United States.

March new energy vehicle sales showed month-on-month recovery

  1. Li Auto's delivery volume increased by 11.9% year-on-year and by 55.4% month-on-month to 41,053 units; 2) Nio's delivery volume increased by 136.0% year-on-year and by 70.6% month-on-month to 35,486 units (NIO brand increased by 120.1% year-on-year and by 48.4% month-on-month to 22,490 units, the Ladao brand increased by 42.7% year-on-year and by 130.7% month-on-month to 6,877 units, and the Firefly brand increased by 130.3% month-on-month to 6,119 units); 3) XPeng's delivery volume decreased by 17.4% year-on-year but increased by 79.7% month-on-month to 27,415 units.

New vehicles launched intensively

Tesla: The delivery cycle for the domestic Model 3 has been shortened to 3-5 weeks (compared to 1-3 weeks in March), while the delivery cycle for the Model Y has been extended to 2-4 weeks (compared to maintaining 1-3 weeks in March), and the Model Y Long Range delivery cycle remains at 1-3 weeks; the entire Model 3 series continues to offer an 8,000 yuan limited-time insurance subsidy and a 7-year ultra-low interest financial policy, while the entire Model Y series continues the 7-year ultra-low interest financial policy, and the Model Y Long Range continues the 5-year 0% interest financial policy.

New forces: 1) Li Auto: The delivery cycle for the L6 remains at 1-3 weeks, the MEGA delivery cycle remains at 1-4 weeks, the i8 delivery cycle remains at 2-4 weeks, and the L8 delivery cycle has been shortened to 1-3 weeks (compared to 2-4 weeks in March). The delivery cycle for the i6 version with CATL batteries has been shortened to 4-6 weeks (compared to 19-22 weeks in March), while the delivery cycle for the version with Xinwangda batteries remains at 2-4 weeks; in March, the purchase subsidies for the Li Auto L series and i8 continue, and the MEGA discount has been expanded to 5 years 0% interest, with the i6 discount adding 3 years 0% interest.

  1. Nio: The delivery cycles for the ES6/EC6/EC7/ET9 remain at 4-6 weeks, the ET5/ET5T delivery cycles remain at 2-6 weeks, the new ES8 delivery cycle has been shortened to 3-4 weeks (compared to 4-5 weeks in March), and the ET7 delivery cycle has been shortened to 3-5 weeks (compared to 4-6 weeks in March); The delivery cycle for the Firefly Free Version/Glow Version has been extended to 3-4 weeks (compared to 2-3 weeks in March). The Firefly Millennium Manbo Special Edition will be released on March 20, with a delivery cycle of 1-2 weeks. Nio/Leahead/Firefly continues the 7-year low-interest financial plan.

  2. XPeng: The 2026 pure electric version of the X9 and the G6 super extended range version, as well as new models of the P7, will officially launch in March; the delivery cycle for the G6/G7 remains at 1-3 weeks, the G9 delivery cycle remains at 1-5 weeks, the P7+ delivery cycle remains at 1-4 weeks, the Mona M03 delivery cycle remains at 1-4 weeks, and the X9 delivery cycle has been extended to 1-5 weeks (compared to 1-3 weeks in March).

  3. Xiaomi: In March, Xiaomi's delivery volume exceeded 20,000 units; on March 19, the all-new generation SU7 was launched, with a delivery cycle of 5-10 weeks, the YU7 delivery cycle remains at 7-14 weeks, and the SU7 Ultra delivery cycle has been shortened to 9-12 weeks (compared to 10-13 weeks in March); in April, Xiaomi's YU7 continues the 7-year low-interest limited-time offer.

  4. Huawei: On March 23, the Shangjie Z7/Z7T and Aito M6 began pre-sales. The Z7/Z7T are positioned as coupe and shooting brake models, while the Aito M6 is positioned as a mid-large SUV, filling the market gap between the M5 and M7.

Focus on order sustainability, pay attention to financial report performance realization + robot/AI power shortage theme

  1. The rebound of some complete vehicle targets in March is mainly due to sentiment/valuation lows after a sharp decline. Future focus should still be on the sustainability of order recovery and the realization of financial report performance; 2) In Q1 2026, Tesla did not release the third-generation Optimus humanoid robot as scheduled, and it is expected to be officially released in April. Pay attention to the humanoid robot theme catalyst; 3) Pay attention to investment opportunities in the internal combustion engine industry chain arising from AI power shortages.

Complete vehicles: Recommend Geely Automobile (00175), Nio-SW (09866), and suggest paying attention to Tesla (TSLA.US), XPeng Motors-SW (09868). Parts: 1) Traditional supply chain: Recommend Fuyao Glass (600660.SH); 2) Humanoid robots: Recommend Top Group (601689.SH), and suggest paying attention to Joyson Electronics (600699.SH), Siling Co., Ltd. (301550.SZ), Shuanglin Co., Ltd. (300100.SZ), etc. 3) Internal combustion engines: Suggest paying attention to Weichai Power (000338.SZ), Yinlun Co., Ltd. (002126.SZ), Aikelan (300816.SZ), Tianrun Industrial (002283.SZ), Zhongyuan Neipei (002448.SZ), etc.

Risk Warning

Policy fluctuations; supply chain not meeting expectations; industry demand not meeting expectations; ramp-up not meeting expectations

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