IEA Warns: Europe's Aviation Fuel Could Run Out in Six Weeks

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued a stark warning that European aviation fuel reserves could run out within six weeks, as the European aviation industry enters its peak summer travel season. The impact of this crisis on the European economy is rapidly becoming apparent.

On Thursday, in a statement sent to CNBC, the IEA said that several European countries may face aviation fuel shortages within the next six weeks, depending on how much fuel they can import from international markets to make up for the supply gap from the Middle East — which previously accounted for 75% of Europe's net aviation fuel imports.

Earlier this week, Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the IEA, warned in an interview with The Associated Press that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would trigger "the largest energy crisis we have ever faced," highlighting that its broader economic impacts include sharp increases in gasoline, natural gas, and electricity prices, with some regions likely to suffer particularly severe consequences.

In response, European low-cost carrier easyJet has already felt the pressure. The company stated that the situation in the Middle East and rising fuel costs are dragging down customer bookings, with ticket sales for later in the year down 2% compared to 2025. ACI Europe, an industry body representing airports across the EU, warned last week that the summer tourism peak would be disrupted, causing "severe economic shocks" to multiple member states whose economies rely heavily on tourism.

Supply Gap: 75% Dependence on the Middle East

The root of Europe's aviation fuel crisis lies in its heavy reliance on supplies from the Middle East. According to IEA data, the Middle East previously accounted for 75% of Europe's net aviation fuel imports, and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has nearly cut off this supply channel.

Rico Luman, Senior Economist at ING, told CNBC earlier this week: "We have already seen vessels halt operations; supplies from the Middle East have been cut off, and we need to find alternative sources." Claudio Galimberti, Chief Economist at Rystad Energy, similarly noted that the situation airlines face "largely depends on how many barrels of oil can flow through the Strait of Hormuz."

Birol had previously warned about the supply situation in April, stating that "there was nothing in April," and pointing out that April's oil loss would be double that of March. Combined with tighter supplies of other energy sources such as liquefied natural gas, this will feed into inflation and drag down economic growth in multiple countries, especially emerging economies, where some nations could even face energy rationing.

Economic Stakes: Nearly €1 Trillion in Output and 14 Million Jobs at Risk

The importance of the aviation sector to the European economy cannot be underestimated. According to ACI Europe data, air travel contributes €851 billion (approximately $1 trillion) to Europe's GDP annually and supports 14 million jobs.

Data disclosed by easyJet further reveals the direct financial impact of the fuel crisis: the company alone incurred an additional £25 million (approximately $34 million) in fuel costs in March alone. It has already hedged against price volatility for at least 70% of its summer fuel demand. Nevertheless, the company stated that the situation in the Middle East and rising fuel costs are dampening consumer willingness to book flights.

ACI Europe warned that multiple EU member states relying on the summer tourism peak to boost their economies will face "severe economic shocks," precisely when the European aviation industry traditionally operates at its most economically valuable window.

The trajectory of the current situation depends heavily on the duration of the Strait of Hormuz blockade. Analysts note that if the blockade continues, it will become increasingly difficult for European countries to secure sufficient aviation fuel from alternative international markets, and the six-week buffer period could shrink rapidly.

The IEA's warning has placed energy supply security at the core of Europe's policy agenda. Birol emphasized that the impacts of this crisis will transmit to inflation via rising energy prices and weigh on economic growth, with emerging economies likely to suffer disproportionately, and some countries may even be forced to implement energy rationing measures.