Data Center Investment Boom Ripples Upstream: HBM Equipment Vendor ASMPT Sees Order Surge, Q1 Forecast to Jump 40% Year-on-Year

The wave of capital expenditure in data centers is accelerating upstream along the industry chain.

Singapore-headquartered semiconductor packaging equipment vendor ASMPT was the first to secure orders for sixth-generation high-bandwidth memory (HBM4) thermocompression (TC) bonding equipment. Revenue from TC bonding machines surged 146% year-on-year last year, and the company forecasts approximately a 40% year-on-year increase in orders for the first quarter of this year, potentially marking the highest single-quarter level in nearly four years.

ASMPT disclosed during its recent 2025 earnings conference call that it had been the first to receive orders for 12-layer stacked HBM4 TC bonding machines from multiple customers, completing shipments in the fourth quarter of 2024, "achieving meaningful market share in the memory market." CEO Robin Ng stated, "HBM capital expenditure trends align with data center investments." As stacking layers evolve from 12 to 16 and then 20 layers, demand for TC bonding machines will continue to expand.

Samsung Electronics is reportedly evaluating the feasibility of introducing ASMPT equipment alongside BESI, a Dutch leader in global hybrid bonding equipment.

Meanwhile, the escalating patent dispute between Hanmi Semiconductor and Hanwha Semitec may drive HBM customers to accelerate supplier diversification, with industry observers suggesting ASMPT could benefit indirectly.

According to ASMPT's forecast, the global TC bonding machine market size will expand from $759 million in 2024 to $1.6 billion in 2028, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 30%. The company aims to capture 35% to 40% of the expanded market at that time.

TC Bonding Machine Revenue Surges 146%, HBM Becomes Core Growth Driver

ASMPT's overall revenue in 2024 reached HK$13.736 billion, with operating profit at HK$625.5 million, representing year-on-year increases of 10% and 8.8% respectively. The highlights centered on the TC bonding machine business—this segment's revenue surged 146% year-on-year, becoming the core engine driving the company's growth.

The company stated that the significant leap in market share stemmed from entering the HBM market and the concentrated delivery effect of large orders in the fourth quarter of 2024. During the conference call, management confirmed that current market share is "approximately 30%," though this figure covers the overall TC bonding machine market including logic chips and HBM. In the specialized sub-market for HBM-specific TC bonding machines, Hanmi Semiconductor holds the top position with a 71.2% share.

Robin Ng further noted that HBM with up to 16 layers can still be handled by TC bonding technology, but once entering the 20-layer stage, according to JEDEC standards, hybrid bonding technology will partially participate. Currently, HBM4 has achieved commercialization at 12 layers. TC bonding is the core process of stacking chips using heat and pressure; hybrid bonding bypasses the bump structure, directly bonding copper-to-copper, and is viewed as a potential alternative path for ultra-high layer stacking.

Order Momentum Remains Strong, 16-Layer Equipment Enters Critical Customer Certification Phase

Entering 2025, ASMPT's order front maintained strong momentum. The company forecasts orders for the first quarter of this year will grow approximately 20% quarter-on-quarter and approximately 40% year-on-year, potentially reaching the highest single-quarter order level in nearly four years.

The company stated that 2025 is a key year where new demand for TC bonding machines corresponding to 16-layer HBM emerges. The pace of subsequent additional orders depends on customer progress in mass-producing 16-layer products and the launch schedule of Nvidia's next-generation GPU architecture.

In terms of product layout, ASMPT's development of new equipment for 16-layer HBM is proceeding smoothly: flux-based equipment has entered the sample testing phase, while non-flux processes are in the customer certification phase; hybrid bonding equipment has expanded shipments after receiving customer approval, with second-generation devices also under development.

Market Size Expected to Double by 2028, Patent Disputes May Trigger Supplier Switching Opportunities

ASMPT maintains an optimistic outlook for the long-term growth of the TC bonding machine market. According to the company's forecast, the global TC bonding machine market will grow from $759 million in 2024 to approximately $1.6 billion in 2028, with a compound annual growth rate of about 30%. The company has set a goal to capture 35% to 40% of the market share at that time.

Regarding the competitive landscape, the cross-litigation between Hanmi Semiconductor and Hanwha Semitec over patents related to TC bonding machine structures and flux processes is prompting the industry to re-examine risks associated with supplier concentration. Industry analysis suggests that the legal disputes between the two parties may compel HBM customers to accelerate equipment diversification or introduce new suppliers, thereby providing ASMPT with additional market opportunities.

On the local competition front, Hanmi Semiconductor plans to release a prototype of its second-generation hybrid bonding equipment within the year and invest approximately 100 billion won in a dedicated factory in Ansan, Incheon, targeting production start-up in the first half of next year. Hanwha Semitec has already delivered prototypes of its second-generation hybrid bonding equipment to SK Hynix and is currently awaiting performance verification tests, roughly four years after completing supply of its first-generation equipment in 2022. It is reported that SEMES, Samsung's semiconductor equipment subsidiary, and LG Electronics' Production Technology Institute are also developing hybrid bonding equipment.

SK Hynix is reportedly simultaneously evaluating the introduction of hybrid bonding technology for eighth-generation HBM (HBM5) in 2029, which will become a significant variable affecting the long-term competitive landscape of relevant equipment manufacturers.