America's 'Open Strategy': Replacing the Gulf to Make the World Buy American Oil?

As US-Iran tensions continue to intensify, a deeper market logic is emerging—this game surrounding the Strait of Hormuz may never have been merely a regional conflict, but rather a carefully designed reconstruction of the global energy landscape.

The US-Iran ceasefire agreement is set to expire on April 22, with negotiations still ongoing. Brian McCarthy, Managing Partner at investment research firm Macrolens, stated that the probability of reaching an agreement within the next 10 days is as high as 90%. Meanwhile, oil futures have fallen back to the low range of $80 per barrel, and stock markets rebounded significantly last week, with the Nasdaq index even outperforming gold. The market is signaling via price language: the war is nearing its end.

However, beneath the surface of ceasefire negotiations, on April 18, Marketwatch columnist Kenneth Rapoza published a commentary stating that the true impact of this conflict extends far beyond the geopolitical level. By pressuring and controlling the Strait of Hormuz, the global energy chokepoint, the US is attempting to redirect global capital and resource flows back to its homeland, sending a clear signal to allies: the US possesses ample oil and gas resources and serves as a safer energy alternative than the Gulf.

Energy Restructuring: The US Strategic Logic

The article points out that multiple analysts believe there is a clear strategic logic chain behind this conflict: by applying pressure on Gulf energy channels, increasing the uncertainty premium for Asian energy supplies, thereby driving capital from gold to the US dollar, and ultimately returning it to the US financial markets.

Albert Marko stated plainly:

"The intent here is to tighten oil supplies to Asia, drive capital from gold into the US dollar, and filter it back into the US market to maintain the financial bubble and consolidate narratives favorable to the US."

The article notes that at the same time, US domestic energy reserves are being pushed onto the global market as an alternative solution. In January, the US Geological Survey released an assessment report confirming that the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico holds technically recoverable natural gas reserves of 28.3 trillion cubic feet and crude oil reserves of 1.6 billion barrels.

Occidental Petroleum announced new oil and gas discoveries in the Gulf of Mexico, while Petrobras announced similar finds in Brazil this year. The potential for oil and gas resources in the Americas is now drawing market attention.

However, the article states that this strategy is not without loopholes. Analysts point out that Europe, Japan, and South Korea could easily bypass sanctions to purchase energy from Russia, and Europe could also accelerate the introduction of alternative energy sources such as solar power.

Furthermore, even if normal traffic resumes through the Strait of Hormuz, there remains uncertainty regarding whether trade routes for petrochemical products and fertilizers can fully return to pre-conflict levels.

Analysts believe that through this conflict, the US has imposed a "Hormuz Passage Risk Premium" on the market, an effect that may persist for the long term.

Hormuz: Market Signals Between Opening and Closing

The article states that passage conditions in the Strait of Hormuz continue to fluctuate. Earlier, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that the strait would resume normal passage, but Iran subsequently announced on Saturday that it would close the strait before the US lifts its blockade on Iranian ships and ports.

Despite the volatile situation, market sentiment has clearly stabilized. According to Vladimir Signorelli, head of Bretton Woods Research, "ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has continued to increase over the past week," and he believes previous pessimistic forecasts about a long-term paralysis of the strait will prove exaggerated.

Oil price trends confirm this judgment. Looking at crude oil futures settling from late summer to autumn, prices have dropped to a range of $70 (high) to $80 (low) per barrel, reflecting the market's pricing expectation for peace prospects. Political and economic consultant Albert Marko noted that oil prices hovering around $80 are "overall bullish," which benefits risk assets.

With rising expectations for a cooling of the conflict, growth stocks are viewed as the primary beneficiaries against a backdrop of stabilizing energy costs. Meanwhile, the decline in oil prices has also led to valuation adjustments for some energy stocks; analysts believe this may provide investors with an entry window.

Brian McCarthy, Managing Partner at Macrolens, raised the probability of an agreement from 85% in his earlier client reports to 90%, and believes that Trump's previously proposed "Golden Bridge" plan—which involves Iran trading isolation for economic normalization—remains the most likely negotiation outcome.

However, it is worth noting that if the agreement falls through, oil prices will return to above $100 per barrel, and Iran will face more severe economic pressure; if the agreement is reached, the global energy market will enter a new period of stability, and the role the US plays will shift from "conflict party" to "energy supplier." This transition may be the most significant long-term variable for investors to watch in this round of gaming.

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