This price for Brent crude is more important for the outlook than $100, charts show
Brent crude oil futures have struggled to surpass $103 a barrel, a key technical level, despite briefly climbing above $100 due to stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks. Analysts suggest that the inability to break above $103 indicates a consolidation phase, with potential for a pullback. The relative strength index (RSI) remains below 60, signaling exhaustion, as the market has traded between $90 and $100 since March 24. A failure to reach an overbought RSI could suggest price deceleration and vulnerability to declines.
By Tomi Kilgore
Oil futures have tried and failed multiple times to get back above $103 a barrel, as a key momentum indicator has been held back
Brent crude oil got back above a key psychological level, but would need to clear a technical indicator before chart watchers will declare a breakout.
At a market crossroads, what prices can't do are often just as important for direction, if not more so, than what they can do.
Brent crude-oil futures (BRN00) climbed toward their first close above the $100-a-barrel level in three weeks as peace talks between the U.S and Iran appeared to stall, raising fears that a supply drought will be drawn out.
While it's safe to say $100 is a psychologically important level - given that it's what's referred to as a "big round number" - technicians would hesitate to call this latest move a breakout, as $103 is looking like a more important level on the charts. That's because since March 23, when Brent futures first dropped back below that level, they haven't been able to get back to $103 despite multiple attempts.
Since March 23, there have been seven intraday peaks in Brent crude futures above $101, according to FactSet data, with the highest being $102.77 on March 31. On Friday, they reached an intraday high of $102.63, before paring gains to roughly 2.5%, at around $101.60.
Until the futures can break out above $103, the current trading behavior appears to technically remain in a consolidation phase, and a pullback to the lower end of the recent range looks likely. Since March 24, Brent futures have traded generally between $90 and $100, with a brief intraday dip to just above $83 on April 17.
Another thing the Brent chart hasn't been able to do is get back to being overbought. Before March 23, Brent's relative strength index (RSI) had been above 70 - the overbought threshold line - as it was trading above $100. Since then, the RSI has stayed below 60, which many chart watchers may view as a sign of exhaustion.
In recent afternoon trading Monday, the RSI was at about 59.60. On March 16, when Brent futures ended the day just above $100, the RSI was at 71.28.
As Oppenheimer technical analyst Ari Wald put it, being labeled "overbought" simply reflects an acceleration in price. "By contrast, a failure to reach [an RSI of] 70 on subsequent price highs would suggest that price is decelerating and vulnerable to reverse lower," Wald wrote in a note to clients.
-Tomi Kilgore
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04-27-26 1527ET
