SG Morning Brief｜Records Hold, Oil Pops on Hormuz Flare-Up

US Overnight

The S&P 500 squeezed out another record close at 7,173.91 (+0.12%) and the Nasdaq Composite also notched a fresh high at 24,887.10 (+0.20%). The Dow lagged again, slipping -0.13% to 49,167.79. The session's tone shifted mid-day: stalled US-Iran peace talks and a fresh escalation in the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil sharply higher and capped the equity rally. Breadth was narrow — leadership stayed inside Big Tech and semis, with everything else struggling to participate.

Key Movers

Nvidia (NVDA) +4% to $216.61 — Extending Friday's $5T-cap milestone, NVDA was the biggest single contributor to the index gains as money kept rotating into the AI infrastructure trade ahead of Wednesday's hyperscaler prints from Microsoft, Meta, Alphabet and Amazon. Capex commentary on those calls is the entire setup for this name through the week.

Apple (AAPL) ~$267.64 — Held firm into Thursday's earnings. Street is watching China iPhone demand and any update on the AI rollout cadence; with the stock back near records, the bar is high.

Energy and oil services — The standout sector strength of the day. WTI jumped over 2% intraday after reports of expanded restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz. Defensive positioning was visible in gold, which held above US$4,700/oz, while Bitcoin slid further to around US$78,000 as the "digital gold" trade keeps losing to actual gold this cycle.

SGX Preview

The STI traded heavy through Monday's session, slipping roughly 0.5-0.7% intraday from Friday's 4,922.86 close as Asia tracked Wall Street's narrow tape and absorbed the oil spike. Specific Monday close was not available in our data feed at print. The bank trio remains the dominant story locally: OCBC continues to lead 2026 performance after hitting a record S$22.83 on April 2, while DBS and UOB have been treading water ahead of bank earnings season starting next week. Expect SIA to be in focus today given the Brent move above $100 — fuel cost guidance becomes a live question. With FOMC tomorrow and US Q1 GDP/Core PCE Thursday, positioning is likely to stay defensive into mid-week.

Asia Pre-Market

US futures sit modestly green into Asia open, with S&P e-minis around 7,217 (+0.15%) and Nasdaq futures pointing slightly higher. WTI is hovering near US$96.85/bbl, up ~2% on the Hormuz escalation, with Brent above US$100. Gold ~US$4,700+/oz stays bid as a Fed-week hedge. Bitcoin has slipped to roughly US$78K, breaking down through key support as the oil shock drains risk appetite. Net read for SGX: tech-friendly tape from the US, but oil-sensitive industrials (SIA, ComfortDelGro) and energy plays (Sembcorp Industries) likely set the day's tone.

Today's US Earnings & Economic Calendar

Earnings Spotlight Preview — Microsoft (Wed post-market). The first of four Mag 7 prints on the same evening. Consensus is $4.05 EPS on ~US$81.4B revenue, but the line that matters most is Azure constant-currency growth and any read on FY27 capex pacing. Stacked on the same evening as the FOMC decision (rate hold expected, but Powell's tone on cuts will set the curve), and 12 hours before US Q1 GDP and Core PCE land Thursday — it's the highest-stakes 24 hours of the quarter.

One More Thing

Two records in two sessions on +0.12% gains tells you all you need to know about how thin the leadership is right now. The market is essentially holding its breath until Wednesday night, and the oil pop is the first crack in the "everything's fine" narrative. Watch how SIA and the energy names trade today — if oil keeps grinding while STI banks get sold ahead of Fed week, that's the textbook risk-off setup, not a buying dip. Tomorrow's MSFT/META/GOOGL/AMZN gauntlet plus Powell will resolve direction either way.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.