Three Years After Igniting the AI Revolution, OpenAI Is "Forced" to Go Public

In November 2022, ChatGPT launched, and its servers were overwhelmed on day one. Before this, no tech company's product had ever gained 100 million users at such an astonishing speed.

From that moment on, the "AI Revolution" transformed from an industry buzzword into a reality felt by ordinary people.

OpenAI kicked off this revolution.

Three years later, according to reports from The Information and other media outlets, OpenAI is preparing to secretly submit a draft IPO filing to the SEC, aiming for a listing as early as September with a target valuation exceeding $1 trillion. Sam Altman has not denied these reports.

However, just 48 hours prior, he told employees in an all-hands meeting that submitting an IPO application is different from being truly ready to go public, and the company would not rashly enter the public market before conditions are mature.

These two statements clearly illustrate OpenAI's current predicament.

Forced Into Action

Altman says they are not ready, yet reports indicate the company will file today. To understand this contradiction, one must first see the triple pressure behind it.

First, Anthropic is overtaking them.

Over the past 15 months, Anthropic's annualized revenue grew from $1 billion to $30 billion, a 30-fold increase. During the same period, OpenAI's revenue grew from approximately $20 billion to $25 billion, an increase of about 25%.

In April this year, Anthropic's annualized revenue officially surpassed OpenAI's.

The numbers for Q2 are even less favorable. Anthropic expects Q2 revenue of approximately $10.9 billion and anticipates achieving an operating profit of about $600 million, meaning Anthropic will become profitable before OpenAI.

Anthropic's private market valuation is already $1.2 trillion, higher than the $1 trillion IPO target set by OpenAI itself.

Anthropic is also preparing for a listing, potentially as early as October. Altman has privately expressed hope that OpenAI will list on the public market first.

Second, SpaceX is set to raise capital next month.

Elon Musk's SpaceX plans to raise approximately $75 billion next month at a valuation of $1.75 trillion, which would be the largest IPO in history.

According to reports citing insiders, there is "significant gaming" between OpenAI and SpaceX, with OpenAI hoping investors will reserve capital for it in advance rather than betting all their firepower on SpaceX.

The competition for public market funds between the two companies is real.

Musk was once a co-founder of OpenAI but later left to establish the competitor xAI, and the two companies are currently engaged in litigation.

Now, another of Musk's companies is grabbing water from the same pool.

Third, computing power is a bottomless pit, and funds are insufficient.

OpenAI expects to spend $665 billion on computing power before 2030. The company has raised nearly $200 billion in cumulative financing to date, but this is still far from that figure.

Raising capital through an IPO is the next window to replenish ammunition, with no alternative options.

Combined, the logic of these three pressures is clear: It is not that OpenAI is ready, but that it can no longer wait.

Internal Disarray

Regarding this IPO, the company is far from unified internally.

Major investors are surprised by the pace of progress, which is not a signal that should appear before a normal IPO.

OpenAI CFO Sarah Friar's attitude toward the listing pace is significantly more cautious than Altman's, a point specifically highlighted in reports, indicating genuine internal divergence.

Altman himself mentioned in the all-hands meeting that SpaceX's upcoming large-scale listing and global economic trends will be key external variables affecting whether OpenAI can ultimately list. In other words, he is also uncertain whether the September window will open.

This does not resemble the state of a company confidently charging toward an IPO. It looks more like: circumstances are forcing it forward, but even internally, no one is sure how far it will go.

Cracks in the Narrative

A deeper issue is that the story OpenAI tells the public market is becoming increasingly difficult to justify.

ChatGPT's initial success established OpenAI's unshakable brand advantage on the consumer side. However, over the past 12 months, ChatGPT's share of web traffic market share dropped from 87% to 68%, while Google Gemini rose from 5% to over 18%, with monthly active users growing from 350 million to 750 million.

Google has Search, Android, and Chrome—these entry points are things OpenAI does not have and cannot buy.

The enterprise side is also under pressure. In direct head-to-head competition, Claude has won approximately 70% of enterprise orders.

Anthropic has achieved a higher market revenue share (31.4% vs. OpenAI's 29%) with fewer users (134 million vs. OpenAI's approximately 900 million), with average monthly revenue per active user at $16.2, demonstrating leading commercial efficiency.

Losses in both directions are occurring on OpenAI's core base.

OpenAI's response is to bet on the AI Agent economy. If AI Agents become the primary mode of interaction between humans and machines, OpenAI's models will be the operating system of this economy, with the $280 billion revenue projected for 2030 being just a small part of the ecosystem.

This logic holds up conceptually. However, it requires OpenAI to maintain growth simultaneously on three fronts: consumer, enterprise, and developer ecosystems, while competitors on all three fronts are accelerating, and OpenAI's own growth rate is only 25%.

From $25 billion to $280 billion in 4 years implies a 65% compound annual growth rate—these are the figures the public market will test.

The Most Expensive Mirror Look

This is the first time OpenAI must open its books.

Previously, the $852 billion private valuation was built on a shared narrative among a few institutional investors, with opaque financial data and inconsistent valuation methods. Once the S-1 is public, loss amounts, cost structures, Microsoft dependency clauses, and specific assumptions behind the $280 billion forecast will all be laid bare before the public market.

The questions from the public market are direct: Can OpenAI win? When will it become profitable? Why is it worth this price?

This is precisely the meaning behind Altman's statement that "conditions are not yet mature." He knows better than anyone that the private market buys stories, while the public market buys numbers. And OpenAI's current numbers—slowing revenue growth, declining market share, and ongoing losses—are not the best posture for an entrance.

But it has no way to wait for the best entrance posture.

With every quarter that passes, the gap with Anthropic narrows. With every day SpaceX advances, there is less money in the market. The computing power bill increases every month.

This is the meaning of "riding a tiger": easy to get on, hard to get off.

OpenAI spent three years turning itself into the biggest symbol of this AI revolution. Now, this symbol itself has become a burden—it must be worthy of a $1 trillion valuation, even if it is not ready.

Asset Impact

Microsoft is the biggest beneficiary of this IPO. Its $13.8 billion investment corresponds to a 27% equity stake; if the IPO lands at a $1 trillion valuation, the floating profit exceeds $270 billion. Short-term positive, with a clear buying logic.

However, note: After listing, OpenAI will seek to reduce its dependence on Microsoft, posing a dilution risk to Microsoft's exclusive AI advantage in the medium to long term.

NVIDIA: OpenAI is one of the largest buyers of computing power. IPO fundraising → accelerated computing spending → support for GPU demand. However, in the medium to long term, OpenAI has a roadmap for self-developed chips, which is a variable requiring a discount in valuation.

CoreWeave: As OpenAI's computing power partner, it directly benefits from accelerated computing spending and can serve as a proxy target.

A-share AI Sector: If the $1 trillion pricing succeeds, it provides a positive anchor for global AI valuations; if the IPO is discounted or delayed, the AI bubble narrative will face phase-specific pressure.

Follow-up Tracking

• SpaceX IPO (next month): Whether it drains public market funds, and whether OpenAI's roadshow schedule is forced to adjust.

• Anthropic Q2 Results: If the $10.9 billion revenue + profitability materializes, it will create direct narrative suppression before OpenAI's roadshow.

• Anthropic IPO Timing (as early as October): Who lists first and who prices higher will be the most important pricing event for the AI sector this year.

• Public Version of S-1: Loss amounts, Microsoft contract terms, breakdown of assumptions for the $280 billion forecast; any figure exceeding expectations will trigger market repricing.

• Whether Altman Changes His Timing Judgment: He stated that market conditions are the final variable.

Sam Altman brought ChatGPT to the world, sparking this AI revolution. But revolutions do not wait for individuals to prepare themselves.

Now, he sits atop a tiger that is already running, with Anthropic, SpaceX, and Google ahead, and an endless bill for computing power trailing behind.

Getting off is hard. Not getting off is also hard.