U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Mixed, May "Small Non-Farm" Hits 16-Month High

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of June 3rd (Wednesday), U.S. stock index futures are mixed before the market opens. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are down 0.36%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.16%, and Nasdaq futures are up 0.08%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.87%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.25%, the French CAC 40 index is down 0.38%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.69%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 2.63%, priced at $96.23 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 2.38%, priced at $98.28 per barrel.

Market News

U.S. ADP adds 122,000 jobs in May, hitting a 16-month high. The U.S. private sector job market has shown unexpected resilience amid trade tensions. The latest ADP data, known as the "little non-farm," shows that May's job additions marked the largest monthly increase in over a year, easing market concerns about an economic slowdown. ADP Research reported on Wednesday that 122,000 jobs were added in the private sector in May, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 120,000, marking the strongest monthly performance since January 2025. This data follows a strong JOLTS job openings report released on the same day, further reinforcing the judgment that the U.S. job market remains robust. Following the ADP report, the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in June remained largely unchanged.

Rate hike expectations reignite, "the anchor of global asset pricing" dances! The AI super bull market faces another "stress test." U.S. Treasury prices continue to fall, likely to record the largest decline in over two weeks, primarily due to the recent escalation of tensions between the U.S. and Iran, which has significantly pushed up oil prices and intensified market expectations for a hawkish return to rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, known as "the anchor of global asset pricing," returned to an upward trend on Tuesday after declining for nearly seven trading days, rising 4 basis points to 4.48% in pre-market trading, following Brent crude futures prices rising above $98 per barrel for the first time this month. Previously, on May 19th, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield spiked violently to 4.7%, reaching the highest level since January 2025, briefly impacting the super bull market driven by AI computing power and the strong momentum of the global stock market Trump says Iran's maritime blockade may last until September. In an interview broadcast on the 3rd, U.S. President Trump stated that the maritime blockade against Iran may continue until Labor Day in the U.S., which is September 7 this year. Trump said, "I don't know. I mean, I think it might (last until Labor Day), but I don't think that's very likely. I think we will reach an agreement. I believe this issue will be resolved soon." Trump indicated that negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are "progressing rapidly," and "we will not allow them to have nuclear weapons, and many other good things will happen."

Individual Stock News

Intel (INTC.US) releases major signal: CPUs will become the next explosion point for AI, Intel 3/18A process accelerates production. Intel's Chief Financial Officer David Zinsner revealed at the Bank of America 2026 Global Technology Conference that the supply of its advanced semiconductor manufacturing processes—Intel 3 and 18A nodes—is accelerating, and pointed out that the demand for CPUs in data centers is also very strong. It is expected that driven by AI, the CPU market will experience "explosive growth." As a result, Intel and AMD (AMD.US) both saw pre-market gains.

Microsoft (MSFT.US) Annual Developer Conference: Windows moves towards the "Era of Intelligent Agents," betting on the next computing revolution and accelerating the reduction of dependence on OpenAI. On June 2 local time, Microsoft's annual developer conference Build 2026 officially opened. Unlike previous years focusing on Copilot upgrades or cloud service innovations, this year's Build conference centered almost entirely around the core theme of AI agents. From the Surface RTX Spark Dev Box capable of running hundred-billion-parameter models locally, to the Windows development platform natively supporting Linux containers and intelligent terminals; from the resident AI assistant Scout built on OpenClaw, to Microsoft's first inference model MAI-Thinking-1; and to the new operating system Project Solara for intelligent agent devices, as well as Microsoft Execution Containers (MXC) providing security isolation mechanisms for AI agents, Microsoft showcased a clear vision of the future: Windows is evolving from a traditional operating system to the foundational platform of the intelligent agent era.

Broadcom (AVGO.US) guarantees Anthropic's $36 billion financing "escort": core part interest rate is only about 5.75%, far below conventional risk debt levels. According to insiders, thanks to Broadcom's commitment to guarantee the largest portion of a record-scale chip financing deal, Anthropic's financing of up to $36 billion has been able to maintain a low financing cost. Insiders stated that the arrangers of the deal—Apollo Global Management and Blackstone Group—are currently discussing a yield level of about 5.75% for the largest portion of this debt, approximately $25 billion. Insiders noted that another portion of the financing, which carries higher risk and is not supported by Broadcom, may have an interest rate between 8% and 9% High-net-worth individuals continue to support U.S. consumer spending! Macy's (M.US) sees growth across all three major brands and raises full-year performance outlook. Macy's latest financial report shows that for the quarter ending May 2, net sales increased by 1.8% year-on-year to $4.68 billion, exceeding market consensus expectations; net profit rose from approximately $38 million in the same period last year to $63 million, with comparable sales growing about 3%, marking one of the strongest first-quarter performances in four years. By brand, Bloomingdale’s comparable sales surged by 10.2%, Bluemercury grew by 6.4%, and Macy’s main brand increased by 1.6%, indicating that spending on luxury goods, fashion, and beauty significantly outperformed general discretionary spending. As a result, the company raised its full-year net sales outlook to $21.5 billion - $21.75 billion and adjusted its earnings per share expectation to $2.00 - $2.20.

Important Economic Data and Event Forecast

Beijing time 22:00: U.S. April durable goods orders month-on-month revision, U.S. April factory orders month-on-month, U.S. May ISM non-manufacturing PMI.

Beijing time 22:30: U.S. EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending May 29.

Beijing time 02:00 the next day: Federal Reserve releases the Beige Book on economic conditions.

Earnings Forecast

Thursday morning: Broadcom (AVGO.US), CrowdStrike (CRWD.US)

Thursday pre-market: Ciena (CIEN.US)