SG Morning Brief | Iran Re-Closes Hormuz 3 Days After Deal, Geneva Talks Cancelled; Marvell Joins S&P 500

Weekend Wrap

The peace deal lasted 72 hours. Iran announced the re-closure of the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, citing Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon as a ceasefire violation. US-Iran talks at Bürgenstock, Switzerland were abruptly cancelled and VP Vance withdrew. ADNOC CEO confirmed the strait remains shut, with 230 loaded oil tankers trapped inside the Gulf. Major shipping lines have not resumed transits and insurance rates remain elevated. Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire Friday, but Hezbollah attacked Israeli forces the same day. The framework is not dead, but severely wounded.

US Overnight (Thursday Close — Last Session)

The Nasdaq surged 1.91% to 26,517.93, the S&P 500 rose 1.08% to 7,500.58, and the Dow gained 0.14% to 51,564.70. The Russell 2000 led with a 2.12% advance. Markets rallied on the Iran deal signing and falling oil, with AI chip stocks rebounding sharply. For the shortened week (four trading days), the Nasdaq gained 2.4%, the S&P rose 0.9%, and the Dow added 0.7%. Oil closed the week with Brent at $80.57 and WTI at $77.54 — still well below the $106 May peak but likely to spike on Monday given the Hormuz re-closure.

Key Movers (Thursday)

Memory / AI hardware rally — Super Micro surged over 10%, SanDisk gained over 11%, and Western Digital rose nearly 5% as the peace deal reignited the AI chip trade. The Nasdaq's 1.91% gain was broad-based across the semiconductor complex.

Accenture (ACN) -18% — Accenture plunged 18% on an earnings miss and weak guidance, signaling slower enterprise IT spending outside of AI workloads.

SGX Preview

The STI was near 5,070 last week. DBS is near S$62.18 and UOB near S$37.91. The Hormuz re-closure is a significant negative for Singapore: just days after the deal seemed to resolve the energy supply crisis, the strait is shut again with 230 tankers trapped. Oil will likely gap higher today, pressuring Singapore's import costs. Banks may benefit if rate hike expectations revive, but the uncertainty overhang dampens risk appetite. Marvell's S&P 500 inclusion today could support local semiconductor sentiment.

Asia Pre-Market

Sunday night futures data was not available at time of writing, but the Hormuz re-closure is almost certainly negative for risk assets. Brent closed Friday at $80.57 — analysts at Axi forecast a $75-82 near-term range, but that assumed Hormuz would stay open. If the strait remains closed, oil could quickly retest $90+. Gold may catch a safe-haven bid after falling 1.7% on Thursday.

This Week's US Earnings and Economic Calendar

Marvell (MRVL) joins the S&P 500 effective today. Nasdaq-100 rebalance also effective today (adding Astera Labs, CoreWeave, Nebius, Rocket Lab, Teradyne; removing Charter, Cognizant, Insmed, Verisk, Zscaler).

Week Ahead Spotlight: May Core PCE (Friday) — The Fed's preferred inflation gauge arrives one week after the dot plot signaled a hike. April core PCE was 3.3% YoY. May data will partially reflect the oil decline from $95 to $80, but core strips out energy. If core PCE stays sticky above 3%, the hike case strengthens further. The Hormuz re-closure adds a new wildcard: if oil spikes again, June CPI will re-accelerate.

One More Thing

Three days. That is how long the peace dividend lasted. The pattern is now unmistakable: every ceasefire since February has collapsed because Israel continues Lebanon strikes while Iran insists the deal covers all fronts. Oil at $80 already reflects skepticism — if traders truly believed Hormuz would stay open, crude would be in the $60s. The $75-82 range analysts forecast prices in "ceasefire, but verify." Friday's Core PCE will tell us whether the brief oil decline bent the inflation curve. If not, the Fed's 9-of-18 hike dots start to look prescient.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.