Ming-Chi Kuo: Apple's foldable iPhone may repeat the "hard-to-get" situation of the iPhone X, with initial shipments possibly falling short of one million units
Tianfeng International analyst Guo Mingqi pointed out that the initial supply of Apple's foldable iPhone will be limited, likely repeating the "hard-to-get" situation of the iPhone X. It is expected to ship 7-8 million units in the second half of 2026, with only 500,000 to 1 million units in Q3, far below the iPhone 18 series. Due to manufacturing process challenges, its release schedule may be delayed, but it is still expected to be unveiled at the September autumn launch event
According to the latest report by Tianfeng International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo, the upcoming foldable iPhone from Apple (AAPL.US) is likely to replicate the scenario seen during the launch of the iPhone X—facing manufacturing challenges due to its innovative design, resulting in extremely limited initial supply and affecting the release schedule.
Based on the latest industry survey data, Kuo estimates that in the second half of 2026, the assembly shipment volume of the foldable iPhone is expected to be around 7 to 8 million units, with shipments in the third quarter only between 500,000 and 1 million units. In contrast, the combined shipment volume of the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max during the same period is expected to reach 20 to 22 million units, showing a significant disparity.
Kuo stated, "From the stocking pace in the third quarter, the foldable iPhone is likely to replicate the trajectory of the iPhone X in 2017—launching alongside other new models, but with both pre-orders and official sales delayed."
Looking back at the iPhone X, this model featured several innovative technologies, including Apple's first OLED full-screen display, the "notch" design at the top of the screen, Face ID facial recognition, and the TrueDepth front camera system. Kuo pointed out, "Due to the high manufacturing difficulty of the iPhone X, its assembly shipment volume in the third quarter of 2017 was expected to be less than 1 million units. The foldable iPhone is highly similar in this regard: both focus on innovative user experience as the core selling point, but manufacturing bottlenecks limit early production capacity."
Kuo expects that Apple will officially unveil the foldable iPhone at the fall launch event in September this year, but its pre-order and official sale dates may be later than those of the iPhone 18 series launched at the same event. For example, in 2017, the iPhone X was announced on September 12, with pre-orders delayed until October 27, and official sales pushed to November 3; meanwhile, the iPhone 8 launched pre-orders on September 15 and officially went on sale on September 22.
Kuo added, "The reason is that the inventory of the iPhone X did not meet the standards required for a September launch. Therefore, considering the limited shipment volume of the foldable iPhone in the third quarter of 2026, pre-orders and official sales may be delayed until the fourth quarter."
Regarding pricing, Kuo predicts that the foldable iPhone will be priced between $2,300 and $2,500. He noted, "Initial supply scarcity, high-recognition appearance design, and innovative user experience will all support its short-term premium in the second-hand market, making resale prices 50% to 100% higher than the official price not impossible."
