SG Morning Brief | Trump Declares Iran Ceasefire "Over" then Walks It Back; Nasdaq Bucks Selloff

US Overnight

The Dow plunged 576.76 points (-1.09%) to 52,348.39 after Trump told the NATO summit in Turkey that the Iran ceasefire is "over," calling Iran "scum" and threatening to "hit them hard tonight." The S&P 500 fell 0.28% to 7,482.71. But in a remarkable split, the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.20% to 25,870.65 as chip and Chinese internet stocks rallied sharply against the broader selloff. Trump later dialed back, saying the escalation would be "quickly resolved," and afternoon dip-buying pared the losses significantly. Brent crude surged 5.43% to $78.19 and WTI jumped 4.37% to $73.52 on the Hormuz threats. Energy stocks rallied alongside oil. FOMC minutes from the June 17 meeting revealed that some policymakers argued for an immediate rate hike, reinforcing the hawkish tilt from the dot plot. Credit-sensitive sectors were hit hardest: American Express fell 3.8%, Home Depot and GE Vernova each dropped 3%, and airlines slid 2-4%.

Key Movers

Alibaba (BABA) +11% — Alibaba surged over 11%, leading a broad Chinese ADR rally that saw the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index gain 2.05%. Kingsoft Cloud jumped 11.7% and Baidu rose 5%. The rally came despite — or perhaps because of — the US-Iran breakdown: a deteriorating US-Iran relationship may indirectly ease pressure on the US-China trade front as Washington focuses its attention on the Middle East.

Broadcom (AVGO) +5% / Nvidia (NVDA) +4% — Chips rebounded sharply despite the geopolitical chaos. Broadcom gained 4.8% after expanding its partnership with Apple on US-made components. Nvidia rose 3.6% on reports that Chinese firms plan to increase H200 chip purchases. The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.3% even as the Dow lost over 1% — the widest Dow-Nasdaq divergence in weeks.

Memory rebound: SanDisk +7% / Seagate +4% / WDC +3% — Memory names bounced after the prior week's brutal selloff. SanDisk gained 6.7%, Seagate nearly 4%, Western Digital 3.4%, and Micron added 1%. The bounce came despite elevated oil and Hormuz tensions, suggesting the memory correction may have reached a short-term floor.

SGX Preview

The STI was near 5,070. DBS near S$62.18, UOB near S$37.91. The Alibaba +11% rally is directly relevant for Singapore investors with China exposure. The Dow's 577-point drop on Trump's Iran rhetoric is a headwind, but the Nasdaq's resilience and chip recovery offer partial offset. Oil back at $78 is negative for Singapore's import costs. FOMC minutes confirming rate hike hawks add pressure on rate-sensitive equities.

Asia Pre-Market

Brent at $78.19 is back to early-July levels, erasing most of the post-MOU peace discount. The Trump "ceasefire is over" statement is the most aggressive escalation since the war began in February. Markets face a binary risk: if Trump follows through with strikes tonight, oil could spike above $80 and safe havens rally. If this is another bluff-and-negotiate cycle, the afternoon recovery pattern repeats. SpaceX closed below its $135 IPO price for a second consecutive session.

Today's US Earnings and Economic Calendar

June CPI releases Tuesday July 14, alongside JPMorgan, BofA, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup earnings — the most consequential single day of Q3.

Data Spotlight: FOMC Minutes Takeaways — The minutes from Warsh's first meeting confirmed what the dot plot hinted: multiple members pushed for an immediate hike in June, arguing that inflation driven by the Iran conflict is becoming embedded rather than transitory. The committee ultimately held, but the debate was more divided than the statement suggested. With oil now back at $78 on renewed Hormuz attacks, the hawks' argument has strengthened heading into the July 29-30 FOMC.

One More Thing

The Dow fell 577 points and the Nasdaq rose. That divergence tells you everything. The Dow is full of banks, industrials, and consumer names — all of which get crushed when oil spikes and rates rise. The Nasdaq is full of chip and software names — which trade on AI demand, not oil. The Iran escalation hurts the real economy (airlines, retailers, homebuilders) while leaving the AI infrastructure trade intact. Nvidia and Broadcom rallied not because the war doesn't matter, but because their customers — hyperscalers building AI data centers — don't cancel orders over Hormuz headlines. The Great Rotation has a new chapter: when geopolitics strikes, the old economy sells and the new economy holds. That pattern works until inflation from $78 oil forces the Fed to actually hike. Then everything sells.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.