U.S. Stock Market Outlook | Three Major Index Futures Mixed, SK Hynix's U.S. Debut Tonight is a Major Event

Pre-Market Market Trends

1. As of July 10 (Friday) pre-market, the three major U.S. stock index futures are mixed. As of the time of writing, Dow futures are up 0.09%, S&P 500 futures are down 0.10%, and Nasdaq futures are down 0.37%.

1. As of the time of writing, the German DAX index is down 0.01%, the UK FTSE 100 index is down 0.01%, the French CAC40 index is down 0.11%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index is down 0.24%.

1. As of the time of writing, WTI crude oil is up 0.65%, priced at $72.55 per barrel. Brent crude oil is up 0.76%, priced at $76.88 per barrel.

Market News

U.S.-Iran "fighting while talking," U.S. officials say technical consultations between the two sides have not stopped. The U.S. military launched military strikes against Iran on the 7th and 8th in response to recent Iranian attacks on commercial ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on U.S. facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan. Meanwhile, on the 10th, Israel stated that it has expressed to the U.S. its willingness to participate in further U.S. military actions against Iran, currently awaiting a decision from President Trump. Reports indicate that Israel believes a new round of military conflict between the U.S. and Iran may continue for several days. However, a U.S. official stated that the U.S. remains committed to seeking a solution regarding Iran, and relevant technical negotiations are ongoing. The fact that the U.S. and Iran maintain technical consultations after a new round of mutual strikes indicates that both sides have not closed off diplomatic channels, allowing the market to moderately reduce the tail risk of "conflict escalating into full-scale war and prolonged disruption of the Strait of Hormuz," but this does not mean that geopolitical risks have been eliminated.

AI investment enters the "refined cultivation era"! JP Morgan: All trading becomes AI trading, and in the future, "how to invest" is more critical than "whether to invest." As the concept of artificial intelligence (AI) permeates every corner of the market, investors' understanding of AI themes is shifting from a frenzy of "everything you buy goes up" to a more refined layout. David Lebovitz, a global market strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, stated that investors are becoming increasingly adept at distinguishing the potential risks and returns of different segments within the AI field, which is a crucial lesson for Wall Street. Lebovitz pointed out that there are significant structural differences within the AI industry chain. In his view, the demand for data center construction and operation will be more "structural" than the production of semiconductors and hardware—chips may face the risk of oversupply He stated: "The supply risks I am concerned about mainly lie in the chip and hardware sectors. This is clearly where investor enthusiasm is at its highest, and historical experience shows that when enthusiasm is high, people tend to go a bit overboard."

Beware of a long squeeze! Hidden "landmines" in the high operation of U.S. stocks: the scale and cost of leveraged bets are skyrocketing, and the earnings season is a severe test for the "financing bull market." As U.S. stocks hover at historical highs and technology and AI concept stocks continue to attract fervent support, the U.S. stock financing market is facing increasingly tightening pressure. According to Morgan Stanley data, on June 26, the financing cost of stock positions once surged to about 200 basis points above the federal funds rate, setting a record high since December 2024. Although the quarterly settlement indicator has fallen back to 89 basis points, market participants warn that the structural factors pushing up interest rates have not only not dissipated but are continuing to accumulate. Martin Tobias, a U.S. interest rate strategist at Morgan Stanley, bluntly stated, "The risk of a surge in financing may accompany us for the foreseeable future," and this leverage-driven financing pressure is becoming the most easily overlooked "landmine" under the high operation of U.S. stocks.

Oil market anomalies suggest U.S. inflation risks are underestimated! Vanguard Asset Management is counter-cyclically positioning for inflation-protected U.S. Treasuries. An unusual change in an oil market indicator is prompting Vanguard Asset Management to buy insurance against U.S. inflation being sustained above expectations for a longer duration. Since the fragile ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, crude oil prices have plummeted, but gasoline prices have not followed suit, leading to the widest spread between the two since 2022. Courtney, head of international rates at Vanguard's actively managed funds, stated that he is closely monitoring the so-called "crack spread" for signs that refined oil prices may rise again and push up inflation. Courtney said, "The question is whether this spread will return to normal or whether this low correlation will evolve into a more structural feature that impacts inflation risks." This trend has prompted Courtney and his team to establish long positions in U.S. short-term inflation-protected securities (TIPS) while also buying longer-term breakeven inflation trading positions on the yield curve.

Is the dollar moving from "safe haven king" to high-volatility asset? Global funds chase U.S. stock AI themes, and the fate of the dollar seems tied to Nasdaq. Deutsche Bank stated that the U.S. financial market is more reliant than ever on international capital flows into domestic corporate stocks for its financing, rather than investing in its debt to raise funds on a large scale. This shift may expose the dollar to higher risks. The bank's research report indicated that geopolitical rifts are weakening international investors' willingness to hold U.S. debt long-term, while the AI boom means more capital is flowing into the U.S. stock market, making the dollar increasingly exposed to the uncertain lifecycle of the highly volatile frontier technology sector. U.S. external financing is shifting from counter-cyclical, long-term U.S. Treasury funding to more pro-cyclical, AI narrative-dependent technology stock market funding, which may gradually transform the dollar from a traditional safe-haven asset into a highly volatile risk asset that is closely linked to the performance of the Nasdaq 100 index, known as the "global technology stock barometer."

Individual Stock News

SK Hynix (SKHY.US) makes its "debut" on the US stock market tonight! The AI investment boom faces a critical stress test. South Korean memory chip giant SK Hynix will officially trade on the US market on Friday. SK Hynix has set the issuance price of its American Depositary Receipts (ADR) at $149 each, raising approximately $26.5 billion. This will become the largest initial public offering (IPO) ever conducted by a foreign company in the US, surpassing Alibaba Group's previous record of $25 billion. It is reported that SK Hynix's ADR issuance has received over 7 times oversubscription. The strong demand for SK Hynix's ADR reflects a global consensus on the pricing of the AI storage industry chain. However, this US listing debut will serve as a key test of whether investors still believe in the sustainability of the AI boom, especially following a recent pullback in semiconductor stocks.

Zuckerberg denies Meta (META.US) has excess computing power: "I don't know anyone in the industry who thinks they have excess computing power." Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg stated that Meta needs as much computing power as possible, but in a market where resources needed to run and develop AI products are scarce, he is also considering whether renting out some of Meta's AI infrastructure to external companies could bring higher value. Zuckerberg mentioned that renting computing resources or considering such transactions is reasonable. He stated, "As long as we want, there is definitely potential to build a cloud business." This does not mean that Meta has overbuilt or has excess computing power. He added, "I don't know anyone in the industry who thinks they have excess computing power." As of the time of writing, Meta's stock rose nearly 4% in pre-market trading on Friday.

Delta Air Lines (DAL.US) Q2 earnings exceed expectations, strong travel demand withstands fuel cost pressure. The financial report shows that Delta Air Lines' Q2 adjusted revenue was $17.66 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.9%; adjusted earnings per share were $1.56, better than the market expectation of $1.51. The company stated that strong demand for premium travel, business trips, and international travel helped offset the impact of the highest fuel costs in a quarter in history. The company reaffirmed its full-year profit guidance, expecting adjusted earnings per share of $6.50 to $7.50 in 2026, significantly higher than the consensus estimate of $5.97 from analysts. As the first major US airline to report quarterly results, Delta Air Lines' financial report provides an important window for observing the performance of the US airline industry following the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East—where the situation has led to a significant increase in aviation fuel prices, prompting airlines to reduce flight schedules and raise ticket prices ahead of the summer travel peak. Delta Air Lines reported that Q2 adjusted fuel expenses reached $4.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 77%, setting a historical high for the same period. With signs of the Middle East war nearing an end, fuel costs had seen some decline. However, this week the US launched a new round of military strikes against Iran, raising market concerns that, with limited progress in diplomatic efforts, the conflict could escalate again Regardless of how the situation develops, American airlines may continue to maintain high ticket prices to offset rising costs. As of the time of writing, Delta Air Lines fell more than 1% in pre-market trading on Friday, after briefly rising nearly 4%