Should You Buy Nvidia Before Aug. 26? Here's What History Says.
Nvidia's stock has lost momentum this year due to concerns over AI spending and macroeconomic factors, though its long-term AI prospects remain strong. With the Q2 earnings report on Aug. 26 approaching, historical data shows the stock typically falls in the five days following earnings. While not recommended for quick post-earnings gains, Nvidia is considered a solid long-term buy at current valuations.
Nvidia (NVDA -1.01%) has been one of the biggest winners of the artificial intelligence (AI) boom. The tech giant entered the market early and became the AI chip leader, and then it went on to build an AI empire, selling a broad portfolio of related products and services.
All of this has helped the company's earnings reach record levels -- more than $215 billion in revenue and $120 billion in profit in the latest full year. And the stock has also climbed, surging in the triple-digits over five years. Though Nvidia shares have lost some momentum this year, the company is well-positioned to deliver growth to investors over time. It's important to remember that the AI market is expected to surpass $3 trillion early next decade.
So, with a potential catalyst for stock performance on Aug. 26, you may be wondering if you should buy shares before that date. Let's consider what history has to say.
Image source: Getty Images.
Nvidia in the AI market
Before diving in, let's take a closer look at Nvidia's path in the AI market so far. This tech giant has been in business for more than 30 years, but in its earlier days, it generated most of its revenue from selling its graphics processing units (GPUs) in the video gaming market. The company, recognizing the power of these chips, then designed a parallel computing platform that allowed for broader use. And when Nvidia chief Jensen Huang saw the AI opportunity, he decided to go all in and design GPUs specifically to suit that purpose.
This proved to be a game-changing decision for the company, as we can see through the revenue growth and stock performance in recent years.
NVDA data by YCharts
Why has Nvidia lost momentum this year? For a few reasons. Investors have worried about the levels of tech spending on AI infrastructure and whether the revenue opportunities will be as big as expected. General concerns about rising prices in the U.S. and turmoil in Iran also have prompted investors to become more cautious -- and rotate out of growth stocks, which are sensitive to economic shifts.
Meanwhile, investors who have chosen to stick with AI stocks in many cases have turned to players that hadn't climbed as much as Nvidia in the earliest stages of the AI boom. For example, memory and storage players such as Micron Technology and Western Digital saw their stock prices advance about 150% from the start of 2023 through the first half of last year, while Nvidia delivered a gain of more than 900%. This year, those two AI stocks have each jumped more than 200%, while Nvidia has delivered an increase of 11%.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
Commitment to innovation
But, as I mentioned above, the AI growth story remains solid, and Nvidia's commitment to innovation should keep earnings marching higher. And speaking of earnings, let's now talk about the event on Aug. 26. This is Nvidia's fiscal 2027 second-quarter earnings report.
Should you buy the stock ahead of that event? History shows us the following about Nvidia's stock performance in the five trading days after its earnings reports. After the past 13 quarterly reports, the stock has fallen eight times during the five days that follow. Two of the declines were in the double-digits, and the others were in the single-digits.
So, history tells us that if you buy Nvidia stock ahead of its Aug. 26 report, you may not benefit from a post-earnings gain. Of course, it's important to remember that history isn't always right, but it offers us a general idea of what has commonly happened over time.
Does this mean you should avoid Nvidia stock? Not necessarily. Nvidia remains an excellent buy due to its well-established leadership in AI chips, its expansion across other products and services, and its long-term prospects in the AI market. And right now, trading at 23x forward earnings estimates, it's particularly cheap. This means that you shouldn't rush into Nvidia stock with the expectation of a quick gain after Aug. 26. Instead, it's a better idea to pick up the shares with the idea of focusing on long-term performance -- and there, you might score a major win.
