SG Morning Brief | All Three Indexes Post Weekly Losses, Rate Hike Odds Triple; Mega-Cap Earnings + FOMC This Week

Weekend Wrap

Pakistan is exploring new peace negotiations between the US and Iran, with the push initiated by China, Reuters reported Friday. Any progress would be the most significant diplomatic development since the MOU collapsed in late June. However, Trump told Axios he is considering a "massive attack" on Iran, saying the country "has not received enough pain yet." The US has now completed 13 consecutive nights of strikes on Iranian targets. Brent crude eased 4% on Friday to below $96 but remains sharply higher on the week after briefly topping $100 on Thursday. Rate hike odds have tripled to 33% from 12% a week ago per CME FedWatch. The FOMC meets Wednesday-Thursday this week.

US Overnight (Friday Close)

The S&P 500 edged up 0.05% to 7,411.98, the Nasdaq fell 0.64% to 24,975.82, and the Dow gained 235.60 points (+0.46%) to 51,947.25. For the week, all three posted losses: S&P -0.6%, Nasdaq -2.1%, Dow -0.4%. The Nasdaq 100 recorded back-to-back weekly declines for the first time since late March. Apple rose 3.5% and Salesforce gained 4%, propping up the Dow, while the SOX fell 3.1%. Brent pulled back from $100 to settle near $96. The 10-year yield eased to 4.69% from Thursday's 18-month high above 4.7%. Asian markets were hammered Friday: the KOSPI dropped 5.7% and the Nikkei fell 2.7%.

Key Movers

Intel (INTC) -8% — Intel plunged nearly 8% despite posting a blockbuster Q2 beat the night before that had sent the stock up 10% after hours. The reversal epitomizes the sell-the-beat pattern that has punished every chip earner this season: Samsung, TSMC, SK Hynix, and now Intel all beat and fell. Investors used the pop to exit positions.

Apple (AAPL) +4% — Apple gained 3.5%, leading the Dow higher and partially offsetting the Intel-driven chip weakness. The stock has held up better than any other Mag 7 name in July, benefiting from its consumer franchise and the China AI partnership with Alibaba.

American Express (AXP) -4% — American Express fell 4.4% despite beating earnings estimates, as investors worried about rising credit costs and consumer delinquencies in a $100-oil environment.

SGX Preview

The STI was near 5,070. DBS near S$62.18, UOB near S$37.91. The week ahead is the most important of Q3: four Mag 7 earnings plus the FOMC. Singapore banks face a critical setup — if the Fed hikes or signals a hike, NIM expectations rise. If it holds, the focus shifts to loan growth. Oil at $96 remains a headwind for Singapore's inflation outlook. The Pakistan-China mediation effort is worth monitoring as any breakthrough directly eases oil prices.

Asia Pre-Market

Brent eased to ~$96 Friday from Thursday's $100 peak. Gold is near $4,137. The 10-year at 4.69% remains elevated. The KOSPI's 5.7% Friday drop and Nikkei's 2.7% decline signal that Asian markets have not yet digested the Mag 7 selloff and $100 oil. Monday could see further weakness before the earnings and FOMC catalyst window opens.

This Week's US Earnings and Economic Calendar

One More Thing

This is the week that defines the second half. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple report earnings while Warsh delivers his second rate decision with oil at $96, rate hike odds at 33%, and the Mag 7 down $800 billion from last week. Then Q2 GDP and Core PCE land Thursday and Friday. The market needs at least two of three things to go right: earnings hold up, Warsh holds rates, and inflation data cooperates. If all three disappoint, the correction deepens into something worse. If two of three deliver, the bull market survives. Intel beating and falling 8% tells you the bar for "good enough" has moved. It is no longer enough to beat consensus. The market wants proof that AI capex generates returns, not just revenue.

This briefing is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.