Report: Top Three Memory Makers' "2027 Capacity Already Sold Out," Validating Prediction That "Next Year Will Be the Most Severe Shortage Year for Memory"

The full-year 2027 production capacity of the three major DRAM manufacturers has already been sold out in advance, as the AI wave pushes the memory market into an unprecedented cycle of structural shortage.

On August 4, citing industry insiders, media outlet DIGITIMES reported that the 2027 production capacity for DRAM and High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) from Samsung Electronics, Micron Tech, and SK Hynix has been fully allocated, covering both long-term agreement key accounts and small and medium-sized buyers.

Meanwhile, the full-year NAND Flash capacity from Samsung Electronics, Micron Tech, and SanDisk has also been pre-sold out, with Kioxia and SK Hynix expected to complete their allocations by the end of August 2026 at the latest.

These developments mean that buyers who have not yet locked in capacity face the dilemma of having "no stock to buy" in 2027, while cloud service giants and AI majors continue to compress the supply space for consumer endpoints such as smartphones and PCs.

However, as major capacity allocations are gradually finalized, the industry expects price increases in 2027 to moderate compared to 2026, though tight supply and end-user cost pressures are unlikely to ease substantially in the short term.

AI Demand Dominates Allocation Landscape

The AI wave is the core driver behind this round of capacity sell-outs. Major manufacturers have recently signed 3- to 5-year Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) with key customers, shifting the memory market from a traditional commodity cycle to a long-term seller's market structure.

ADATA Chairman Chen Li-bai confirmed that the 2027 capacity of the three major manufacturers was sold out long ago, with HBM and AI server-related applications accounting for approximately 70% of DRAM capacity.

With total capacity constrained, manufacturers are prioritizing the demands of Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) and AI majors, directly squeezing the quotas for smartphone and PC manufacturers.

Industry estimates suggest that the actual capacity manufacturers can provide usually reaches only 60% to 70% of buyers' original targets. The DRAM quota achievable by smartphone and PC manufacturers in 2027 is expected to decrease significantly compared to 2026.

SK Group Chairman Chey Tae-won recently stated that AI semiconductor demand in 2027 is expected to surge by 60% to 100% compared to 2026, with overall memory demand estimated to grow by 50% to 60%. The supply-demand gap is likely to continue widening, and 2027 will face the most severe shortage and supply-demand imbalance in history.

Doubts Remain About NAND Supply-Demand Reversal; Enterprise Demand Provides Support

Compared to DRAM, the NAND Flash market has more suppliers, leaving buyers with some room for negotiation.

Outsiders remain skeptical about a supply-demand reversal in NAND for 2027, believing that the successive release of new capacity coupled with weak consumer demand may lead to looser supply and demand conditions in the second half of 2027, thereby increasing price pressure.

However, industry insiders hold reserved views on this perspective.

Related industry players pointed out that demand for enterprise-grade Solid State Drives (SSDs) remains strong in 2027, and tight supply is expected to extend into 2028. Manufacturers should not be overly optimistic in their capacity expansion assessments.

Chen Li-bai also noted that strong enterprise storage demand is driving tighter supply in both the NAND Flash and hard drive markets.

Deposit Model Replaces Traditional Ordering

A structural shift has occurred in this round of capacity allocation models.

According to reports citing supply chain sources, facing the continuing spread of supply falling short of demand in 2026, multiple cloud service giants and brand manufacturers are vying for capacity at any cost. Major manufacturers are locking in future capacity in advance and completing transactions in line with the prepaid deposit model promoted by the original manufacturers.

So-called capacity allocation covers not only key accounts signing long-term agreements but also small and medium-sized buyers who received capacity allocations in 2026 but with whom manufacturers may be unwilling to sign long-term contracts. Each manufacturer will notify relevant parties of their capacity quotas after internal coordination.

Industry insiders pointed out that some companies are still unaware that July to August is a critical window for capacity allocation. "No one is publicizing it, fearing that too many people will enter the market, resulting in smaller shares for themselves."

Normalization of High Prices, With Moderate Price Increases Expected

Although supply remains tight, the price trajectory may differ from that of 2026.

The industry generally believes that since major capacity has been basically allocated, the final prices for DRAM and NAND will be further determined closer to the actual shipment period. Price increases in 2027 are expected to be more moderate compared to the exponential skyrocketing seen in 2026.

However, "normalized high prices" will become the new normal.

Memory manufacturers hold the power of capacity allocation and are expected to strongly maintain rising market quotes. Overall market supply tightness and end-user cost pressures are unlikely to ease substantially in the short term.

For manufacturers that have not yet locked in capacity, being forced to accept higher procurement prices or falling into a passive position regarding supply will be the main risks faced in 2027.